Post-92L: Discussions & Imagery

[Blown Away]

This one is confusing. This morning the dissipating MLC was moving WNW w/o convection. There was a ball of convection hundreds of miles to the S and did not appear to be associated w/ the MLC. Now this afternoon that ball of convection is now moving towards the dissipating MLC. Not sure if there is any significance. Local Mets are keyed up w/ this one and most on this forum say "Next".

[gatorcane]

This one is confusing. This morning the dissipating MLC was moving WNW w/o convection. There was a ball of convection hundreds of miles to the S and did not appear to be associated w/ the MLC. Now this afternoon that ball of convection is now moving towards the dissipating MLC. Not sure if there is any significance. Local Mets are keyed up w/ this one and most on this forum say "Next".

There is no doubt that if this thing could get its act together South Florida would have to be a possible target, maybe that is why they are on it.

Just remember even if it waits all the way until the Bahamas to start getting going, it could develop quickly and deepen rapidly. We have seen this before with systems passing through the Herbert box.

Right now though it does just look like a strong wave will pass through South Florida later this week, marking the second time in a month that something should have developed and impacted us and miraculously just dissipates.

Recall the invest that was a bit farther N and E that went from impressive to nothing as it passed South Florida by as a weak wave increasing winds some and shower activity.

[Blown Away]

What caused that ball of convection to begin moving N towards the dissipating MLC this afternoon.

[gatorcane]

What caused that ball of convection to begin moving N towards the dissipating MLC this afternoon.

I don't know but I have been watching that ball all day today and it is sustaining itself...and is nearly now over the old MLC..it has to start moving W because there is a blocking ridge to the north..

could the mets in South Florida be on to something?

ironically it looks better now than yesterday yet where is everybody? Interesting how people give up so quick.

Until this thing is gone out of the visible loops we should watch it.

[x-y-no]

What caused that ball of convection to begin moving N towards the dissipating MLC this afternoon.

I don't know but I have been watching that ball all day today and it is sustaining itself...and is nearly now over the old MLC..it has to start moving W because there is a blocking ridge to the north..

could the mets in South Florida be on to something?

ironically it looks better now than yesterday yet where is everybody? Interesting how people give up so quick.

Until this thing is gone out of the visible loops we should watch it.

Yeah, I can't say why it's happened either. That northern part of the wave lost a lot of oomph (very technical meteorological term there ) when it lost convection last night, though. It'll need at least a day of sustained convection to get any kind of surface spin going.

[Blown Away]

Amazing how that ball of convection moved due N rate towards the dissipating MLC. It's rate on it now.

[gatorcane]

It's almost liked it the MLC was sucking in whatever it could to build up again..

very weird. I have no explanation for it.

If this thing develops. Today was the key reason why it happened.

It just shows folks that things can change so quickly in the tropics.

In fact tomorrow at this time all the convection could be gone again. You never know.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
So what your saying is that the MLC is now covered with the ball of convection and now it has a better chance of developing a LLC
and it could possibly sustain its convection through out the day tomorrow?

[gatorcane]

5:30 TWO

Note that the NHC indicates sea level pressures are not falling. Still an area to monitor until it has gone completely poof.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE
EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING IN THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This should be watched, just in case,
not saying it will explode but it
is moving into a favorable area.

[MiamiensisWx]

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
SOUTHWEST TO SWR GULF OF MEX. AMPLE MOISTURE BEING STREAMED NORTH
FROM WRN CARIB INTO S. FL. ATLC LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
AROUND 30N 65W SW THROUGH NRN BAHAMAS THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO ERN GULF OF MEX.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD WEST AND SO S. FL WILL BE UNDER A WELL ESTABLISHED EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LVL FLOW. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WITH LESS HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD, WX CONDS WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
EFFECT SUCH AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA/LAKE BREEZES. TAKING THIS
INTO CONSIDERATION WILL GO WITH POPS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROPICAL NOW JUST WEST OF
THE LEEWARD ISS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS THEN
KEEPS A MOSTLY MOIST SE FLOW ACROSS S. FL THROUGH THE WEEKEND

NWS Miami discussion

[Blown Away]

I'm just baffled!
MLC moving WNW.
Ball of convection moving N.

[Vortex]

A very interesting system...That MLC refuses to give up...All day this complex of thunderstorms has migrated North towards the MLC. I did not expect the convection to last more than mid-afternoon. As evening approaches it will be interesting to see what happens as this complex bumps up against the ridge and how the MLC reacts...

[Vortex]

blownaway in 30 yrs of watching the tropics-IM BAFFLED

[Vortex]

from San Juan NWS:


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 102041
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 PM AST MON SEP 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA
PASSAGE...WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST ATLANTIC.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 62 WEST
MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXPLOSIVE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST NORTH OF WHAT
APPEARED TO BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND
NEVIS.

[HURAKAN]

If I'm understanding this right, then the MLC has convection to work with. Very interesting 12 to 24 hrs ahead.

[deltadog03]

I thought I had seen a LLC se of PR. Basically on the SW side of that blow up!

[windstorm99]

If I'm understanding this right, then the MLC has convection to work with. Very interesting 12 to 24 hrs ahead.

Yep....

[windstorm99]

[Blown Away]

I am very interested to understand what is going on w/ 92L. Need a Pro to explain how a dissipating exposed MLC drew in a ball of convection over 100 miles away in just 10+ hours.