Post-90L: Discussions & Imagery: T1.0/1.0

[Stormcenter]

I guess I'm the odd man out, as I see very little of any substance with ex 90.

I agree, with the Upper Level Troughiness in the Caribbean... we won't see any sustained convection over a certain area.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.html

What does troughiness in the Carribean have to do with 90L?

[cycloneye]

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.


$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

5:30 PM TWO

[gatorcane]

Luis,

You just beat me to it.

Okay GOM posters looks like the NHC is somewhat more bullish on the GOM system...

[Stormcenter]

Luis,

You just beat me to it.

Okay GOM posters looks like the NHC is somewhat more bullish on the GOM system...

Okay now where is that Invest 90L at?

[Portastorm]

Ah you beat me to the punch!

The NHC clearly has changed its wording and evaluation of this system based on the language of this outlook. However, still no signs of any real organization and even if it is moving slowly, not much room left. Maybe a minimal TS at best?!

[jasons2k]

The center I was clearly tracking earlier today was moving west at a pretty good clip. Unless something reforms to the east, or it slows down/stalls, it will run out of room.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this is supposed to move slowly or meander through midweek. If that is the case, then this might not move inland until Wed/Thurs. Even so, I do not see this ever becoming much more than a weak/moderate TS.

[lrak]

Sweet...Swell on the way? This so called 90Lx just looks like a lot of rain for Texas coast, but not really a windy?

Anyone think it will produce a E swell?

The Nat. Buoy Center shows the 42002 buoy with 1010mb pressure and a North wind, but not enough for surfing.

[Stormcenter]

Well look at the loop and check off NWS fronts to see
where they (NWS) have the "low" located at and you tell me
where you imagine it's moving. I really can't tell for sure.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[lrak]

After using the NASA site it looks like a W moving LLC 24.5N 94W.

[Stratosphere747]

Still not that impressed, despite the latest TWO. I will say that it has slowed down a bit.

[lrak]

I'm impressed the thing is still spinning up after all its been through.

[jasons2k]

Well look at the loop and check off NWS fronts to see
where they (NWS) have the "low" located at and you tell me
where you imagine it's moving. I really can't tell for sure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The LLC is well NW of where the "L" is indicated. I wouldn't call this a true, closed LLC as technically defined for a TS though, but it was the center referred to by the various NWS offices in their dicussions, etc. It's very weak as there are outflow boundries all over the place.

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
253 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF THIS AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A WEAK LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA.
MODELS FORECAST UPPER SHEAR TO DECREASE TONIGHT/TUESDAY SO THIS
AREA CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
INDICATE ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE LIKELY BEING
DRAWN UP INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

[Stratosphere747]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
253 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP

AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PUSH WEST ONTO THE MEXICAN
COAST. AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PICK UP AS
GULF AIR IS PUSHED NORTHWARD. THE NAM IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS FEATURE AS IT HAS BEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND APPEARS TO BE
COMING IN LINE WITH GFS SOLUTIONS...KEEPING IT AN OPEN WAVE RATHER
THAN CLOSING OFF ITS CIRCULATION.

[HURAKAN]

If shear decreases over the next few days before it moves over land, I think it has a good shot at development. Tomorrow should be decisive and we might see it back as an invest.

[wxman57]

For the person asking about any swell on the TX coast from this - nope. Winds to its north are only in the 10-15 kt range, just enough to produce a 3 foot wind wave, which is pretty much standard out there.

Here's a 22Z surface analysis. There's definitely a broad LLC centered very near the western Buoy. Pressures there have been steadily falling. The center is only 190nm from Mexico. I calculate an 8-hr movement of 10 kts. That means if it keeps moving the same speed it'll be inland by tomorrow afternoon. Not enough time to organize unless it stalls, and I'm seeing no sign of stalling. Upper low/trof moving west rapidly, and so is the disturbance.

[tropicwatch]

From Tropical weather outlook 5:30pm EDT

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[ROCK]

For the person asking about any swell on the TX coast from this - nope. Winds to its north are only in the 10-15 kt range, just enough to produce a 3 foot wind wave, which is pretty much standard out there.

Here's a 22Z surface analysis. There's definitely a broad LLC centered very near the western Buoy. Pressures there have been steadily falling. The center is only 190nm from Mexico. I calculate an 8-hr movement of 10 kts. That means if it keeps moving the same speed it'll be inland by tomorrow afternoon. Not enough time to organize unless it stalls, and I'm seeing no sign of stalling. Upper low/trof moving west rapidly, and so is the disturbance.

that is where the NAM put it in 60+ hrs.....of course the east side will see all of the rain...that means us.....


reminds me of Erin....of course kept relocating under the convection....this might pull one one of those tricks...

[wxman57]

For the person asking about any swell on the TX coast from this - nope. Winds to its north are only in the 10-15 kt range, just enough to produce a 3 foot wind wave, which is pretty much standard out there.

Here's a 22Z surface analysis. There's definitely a broad LLC centered very near the western Buoy. Pressures there have been steadily falling. The center is only 190nm from Mexico. I calculate an 8-hr movement of 10 kts. That means if it keeps moving the same speed it'll be inland by tomorrow afternoon. Not enough time to organize unless it stalls, and I'm seeing no sign of stalling. Upper low/trof moving west rapidly, and so is the disturbance.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/90L.gif

that is where the NAM put it in 60+ hrs.....of course the east side will see all of the rain...that means us.....


reminds me of Erin....of course kept relocating under the convection....this might pull one one of those tricks...

The western buoy went ENE with the wind while the central Gulf buoy pressure continued to rise at 6am CDT. That indicates the center is almost at the same latitude as the far west deepwater buoy. Most convection is east of the trof axis, as would be typical with a wave.