TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[storms in NC]

If you take a look at Bertha in 1996 you can see she was on the same path

The 500 mb pattern atm is nowhere near the same as during Bertha.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/071100.png

The ridge was situated near Bermuda at that point (look at the 594 dm heights on the 500 mb map on the upper left).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

I don't see how a ridge centered near FL is going to take a Bertha-like track.

Even a week from now the trough really isn't deep enough to pull Humberto/91L that far north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

Was I was saying is that a storm can move WNW or NW. Not saying coming to EC to say. Just to move from a low latitude to the north

[windstorm99]

Then the question comes how far west will it come before it turns up.....Ernesto like track comes into mind here.All about timeing.

[perk]

I was thinking a Friday threat for the Caribbean, MAYBE Saturday

I'm, however, not sold on a NE islands threat. I could see this entering in the central Caribbean. May mean more of a Hispaniola threat and an Emily 1987 track (at least until Hispaniola landfall)

Derek are you sold on a recurve out to sea at some point, or a continued westward track toward the yucatan.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like Euro offers a possible fish storm escape route in the 8 to 10 day mean 500 mb heights, while the GFS doesn't.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on the buoy at 11 north/39 west, there can't be a LLC at 10.5/41 as the satellite kind of shows the cloud pattern. But a possible LLC could be at 10.5 north/38 west...It appears to becoming better organized with time.

[destruction92]

I was thinking a Friday threat for the Caribbean, MAYBE Saturday

I'm, however, not sold on a NE islands threat. I could see this entering in the central Caribbean. May mean more of a Hispaniola threat and an Emily 1987 track (at least until Hispaniola landfall)

Derek are you sold on a recurve out to sea at some point, or a continued westward track toward the yucatan.

He suggests something in between...by no means are any of the globals indicating a Yucatan threat...that is a bit of a stretch.

[Sanibel]

The center of the spiral is at 11.3N in this loop:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


(Looks well into cyclogenesis)

[destruction92]

The center of the spiral is at 11.3N in this loop:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

wow! i see it...it's still exposed though and it may only be a mid level circulation.

[storms in NC]

There is a front that is going to stall out over The SE so with at it could pull up to fla

[mightyerick]

Looks like another Category 5 hitting Mexico/Central America.
Sure... it gonna be Humberto in two days.

[Coredesat]

Looks like another Category 5 hitting Mexico/Central America.
Sure... it gonna be Humberto in two days.

Got any data to substantiate that claim?

[Sanibel]

Hopefully GFS will grab it tomorrow.

[BigA]

I would look to see if convection fires over the "center" this evening and tonight, like it appears to be starting to do just to the north side. However, I'm looking for deep orange and red. If we see those tonight, we may have a TD by late tomorrow. If not, it needs more time. I think this thing will eventually develop, but it may need some more time. As the NHC says, it is getting "gradually better organized."

[mightyerick]

We are in september, you know, warm water, not much wind shear in southern caribbean, a mayor hurricane is very possible.
I must confess I have no idea about the landfall if it happens, i am just guessing. The ridge is still strong, i assume a southern track.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The 7 day NWS says that 7 days from now, the front
will have been stalled saturday through next monday over the SE, and then
the front will fall apart, unless something reinforces it, now
that might mean a NW turn if the front is STRONG enough...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...PERIOD STARTS WITH A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT OVER THE GA/FL BORDER AND ITS PARENT MID LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. GFS ALSO SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC... FLORIDA AND EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND SENDS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH REACHES NORTHERN
FLORIDA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AND
ALLOWS FOR DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PENETRATE
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

WITH ALL THESE FEATURES INTERACTING OVER THE AREA...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
50/40 POPS REMAIN IN PLACE EACH AFTERNOON AND BEST CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

Where in the caribbean will this be on monday?
Note a strong cold front making it all the way down
into florida-
if its influence saturday through monday is
still strong, a NW turn is likely...
But if it breaks down by monday
there will be less influence,
but from the current looks of it this trough
will be strong...
The ridge would be substantially
weakened by this "front".

[ROCK]

We are in september, you know, warm water, not much wind shear in southern caribbean, a mayor hurricane is very possible.
I must confess I have no idea about the landfall if it happens, i am just guessing. The ridge is still strong, i assume a southern track.

How's that for a second post response?.... Seriously don't take that to hard.... We all have done that at one time or another in our posting history......just sit back and learn for awhile....this is a great site....welcome to 2k.....



sorry back on topic...

[mightyerick]

It should be Humberto. 90L dosnt look still well defined, I guess 91L can reach tropical storm category before 90L ( if 90L develops, of course).

Anybody knows if La Nina event will develop in the end of this hurricane season?

[RL3AO]

It should be Humberto. 90L dosnt look still well defined, I guess 91L can reach tropical storm category before 90L ( if 90L develops, of course).

Anybody knows if La Nina event will develop in the end of this hurricane season?

CPC declared a La Nina today.

viewtopic.php?p=1628041#p1628041

[mightyerick]

We are in september, you know, warm water, not much wind shear in southern caribbean, a mayor hurricane is very possible.
I must confess I have no idea about the landfall if it happens, i am just guessing. The ridge is still strong, i assume a southern track.

How's that for a second post response?.... Seriously don't take that to hard.... We all have done that at one time or another in our posting history......just sit back and learn for awhile....this is a great site....welcome to 2k.....



sorry back on topic...

OK

[mightyerick]

CPC declared a La Nina today.

viewtopic.php?p=1628041#p1628041

Thanks, RL3AO.

Now I can think about an spectacular ending for this season.