Post-90L: Discussions & Imagery: T1.0/1.0

[cycloneye]

LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/2345 UTC 25.4N 93.6W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

It got T Numbers again.

[lrak]

menacing looking storm to me, and I said I only like depressions and storms.

this is about 2 or 3 hours old right? Looks like some waves to me.




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

what about the storms and the front up around Austin? Won't they make this blob move more to the North?

[mattpetre]

Yeah, the quikscats have slowly been showing more... I still think this has time to spin up into a TS at least... I don't know about my midnight prediction of a depression though... we'll see.

Also looks like there is another LLC somwhere near the coast of MX in the BOC, possibly the one I mentioned earlier... any chance this could head north through the Gulf?

Karl, yeah the models always showed a NE turn at some point, we'll just have to see when.

[lrak]

Yeah, the quikscats have slowly been showing more... I still think this has time to spin up into a TS at least... I don't know about my midnight prediction of a depression though... we'll see.

Also looks like there is another LLC somwhere near the coast of MX in the BOC, possibly the one I mentioned earlier... any chance this could head north through the Gulf?

Karl, yeah the models always showed a NE turn at some point, we'll just have to see when.

I can make maybe 12pm then I pass out

check out the radar, a small inclination of a spin way out there.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[chadtm80]

LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/2345 UTC 25.4N 93.6W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

It got T Numbers again.

Thats a joke right??

[Ed Mahmoud]

Pressure rising at the databuoy East-Southeast of BRO, and while there are storms out there, I don't see anything that looks organized.


Good thing we have 91L to talk about

[Ed Mahmoud]

LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/2345 UTC 25.4N 93.6W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

It got T Numbers again.

Thats a joke right??

No, oddly enough.

10/2345 UTC 10.4N 40.5W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
10/2345 UTC 25.4N 93.6W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


How this rates the same as 91L, that is a mystery.

[HURAKAN]

TWO 1030:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL
IT MOVES OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[CrazyC83]

Maybe 90L will re-appear soon? This has improved some, although it is still quite a ways from being a TD...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe 90L will re-appear soon? This has improved some, although it is still quite a ways from being a TD...

On the one hand, NHC mentioned it in the TWOAT, on the other, this looked better this afternoon than it does now.


If the Gulf were 300 miles wider...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bed time. The convection closest to BRO looks like it might just have barfed out an outflow boundary, usually not a sign of imminent organization. (Look at IR Channel 2 loop to see it best).

[Thunder44]

I'm not sure why NHC has shown so much interest in this area, but here is the discussion from the 5:30 TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM PRIOR TO IT REACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER RHOME

[DrewFL]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD


TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CANADIAN BRINGS THE LOW INTO MEXICO QUICKER THAN THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE. THE NAM AND UKMET TRACK APPEAR TOO FAR SOUTH PER THE
CURRENT TPC SURFACE ANALYSIS POSITION. SINCE THE ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON ITS CURRENT POSITION AND TRACK...WILL
FAVOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO PIECES OF GUIDANCE...WHICH
BRINGS IT TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE GFS FINALLY HAS THIS
FEATURE...BUT LINGERS IT NEAR THE COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT ENTERS A COL/SADDLEPOINT IN THE FLOW
PATTERN.



This is why the NHC is watching so closely. With a frontal boundary in the area this could get stalled off-shore. Not something anyone likes to see this time of year in the Gulf.

[tailgater]

Looks like old 90L did a Hodeanie (sp) and reappear @ 100 miles NE of where it was before the Sat eclipse. This will give a little more time over water.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From the 8:05 AM EDT NHC ATWD:

"THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A 1010 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR 26N95W. THIS LOW SITS ALONG A N-S TROUGH AXIS
WHICH RUNS ALONG 95W N OF 22N. THIS LOW AND TROUGH SHOW UP
NICELY IN THE SHIP...BUOY AND EARLIER QSCAT DATA. WHILE THERE
IS ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
GULF...THERE ARE ONLY SCATTERED DEEPENED PATCHES. LATEST IR
IMAGES SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
LOW. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN
92W-95W FUELED PRIMARILY BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS OVER THE E GULF AND W FLORIDA TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE GULF WITHIN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NW
GULF WHERE A NARROW SWATH OF STABLE AIR ALOFT EXISTS IN AN AREA
OF CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A HIGHLY STRETCHED UPPER HIGH OVER THE S
U.S. AND THE COMPLEX TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE GULF. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM PRIOR TO IT REACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY."

Satellites:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... im8ir.html
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/

Radars:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... fs.6.val=1
http://image.weather.com/web/flash/FMMa ... meAlpha=60

Buoys:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

Buoys and ships nearby:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

Most interesting buoy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002
Sustained wind around 20 knots.

[Stratosphere747]

I was going to mention the 0z GFS run and the stalling out of the system. 6z run is showing about the same. NAM is showing something similar, though it seems to be more offshore. Never develops, but quite a bit of rain.

I'll let 57 expand if possible.

[Stormcenter]

Whoa!!!!!!!!!

What happened here?
It looks like 90L is now much further
north then before and better organized..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Johnny]

Shouldn't this be moved back into the 'active' forum? This has got to be an invest again, right?

[Stratosphere747]

I don't think it is any better "organized", but the movement could be a bigger issue. See no reason to put it back up as an invest - At least for now.

[Stormcenter]

I don't think it is any better "organized", but the movement could be a bigger issue. See no reason to put it back up as an invest - At least for now.

There have been more pathetic looking disturbances then x-90L put up as invests so I don't see why not. IMO