TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[ROCK]

if your looking for heat potential I always use this link....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Gustywind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html


This is about to take off , notice the line of thunderstorms building just north of the center.

Awaiting clearance for 27R...

Cleared for takeoff.

Put you belts

[Derek Ortt]

its not moving NW... the center was not correctly located earlier

I actually place the center closer to 11N, but moving due west

[Extremeweatherguy]

IMO, 91L has N Islands/Hebert Box written all over it. From there either SFL, Carolinas, or between CONUS and Bermuda. Just seems to be in a classic position at the right time of the season to take one of those tracks.

I think it has a chance at being a SFL or Carolinas storm, but it also has just as great a chance (or perhaps even a slightly better chance) at being a caribbean storm, IMO. With it's already low latitude and current westward motion though, I think the chances of this being a fish or hitting Bermuda are slim to none. ATM, the most likely path to me would be into the Caribbean and then either continuing toward the Yucatan Channel or turning NW toward FL or the SE U.S.

[Cryomaniac]

The following post is teh opinion of Cryomaniac, it is not based on any information. It should not be used for any purpose

2004-2005 spectacular ?

My personal opinion is that there will be a total of 7 september storms, then 3 in october, 2 in november and 1 or 2 in december, That would a total of 20, so not quite.

[ROCK]

IMO, 91L has N Islands/Hebert Box written all over it. From there either SFL, Carolinas, or between CONUS and Bermuda. Just seems to be in a classic position at the right time of the season to take one of those tracks.

I think it has a chance at being a SFL or Carolinas storm, but it also has just as great a chance at being a caribbean storm, IMO. With it's already low latitude and current westward motion though, I think the chances of this being a fish or hitting Bermuda are slim to none. ATM, the most likely path to me would be into the Caribbean and then either continuing toward the Yucatan Channel or turning NW toward FL or the SE U.S.

well that narrows it down EWG... j/king of course....but yes likely the islands then FL-EC afterwards is my thinking...

[SWFLA_CANE]

its not moving NW... the center was not correctly located earlier

I actually place the center closer to 11N, but moving due west

Thanks I was just going by the 9.6 N at 1745 UTC to 10.4 N now and not by anything else.

[AtlanticWind]

its not moving NW... the center was not correctly located earlier

I actually place the center closer to 11N, but moving due west

Due West or just slightly north of west I think.

[BensonTCwatcher]

[quote="....but also remember climo was against Felix and Dean as well.....just some food for thought...[/quote]


Yeah, but those ridges for F and D were all by themselves i.e. sans a real front. In this case we have a trough and some re-inforcement behind it. The slower this moves and longer it tracks west, I could change my opinion. But Gabrielle was a good lesson in patience and let the data come in. I think we'll see a pretty solid track in 48 hours or less in this case.

[wzrgirl1]

derek what's your gut tell you on this one.....could be a florida storm or possibly a fish? You have great instincts this far out.

[ROCK]

[quote="....but also remember climo was against Felix and Dean as well.....just some food for thought...

Yeah, but those ridges for F and D were all by themselves i.e. sans a real front. In this case we have a trough and some re-inforcement behind it. The slower this moves and longer it tracks west, I could change my opinion. But Gabrielle was a good lesson in patience and let the data come in. I think we'll see a pretty solid track in 48 hours or less in this case.[/quote]


Yeah, I realize that but the 1st front is not going to do much of anything but the 2nd that is a whole different ball came if it comes in as progged.

[BigA]

It looks like all things are go for this to start cranking tomorrow. Caribbean, Bahamas, and US should watch it, though Bahamas and US dont have to worry much yet.

[BensonTCwatcher]

[quote="....but also remember climo was against Felix and Dean as well.....just some food for thought...

Yeah, but those ridges for F and D were all by themselves i.e. sans a real front. In this case we have a trough and some re-inforcement behind it. The slower this moves and longer it tracks west, I could change my opinion. But Gabrielle was a good lesson in patience and let the data come in. I think we'll see a pretty solid track in 48 hours or less in this case.

Yeah, I realize that but the 1st front is not going to do much of anything but the 2nd that is a whole different ball came if it comes in as progged.[/quote]

This will be interesting ( as always) to see which global does best with the features Range: HWRF to GFS to Euro. They all seem to be progging different ridge heights and axis, timing a bit too. I am kinda of troubled at this point. Either way, this has a lot of potential for being a serious US threat, and before that an island threat.

[Derek Ortt]

florida or a fish storm?

ther eis a good chance that it is niether

[canegrl04]

The models should be reaching a consensus in 72 hours .We will have a prettygood idea where this is going to impact

[Vortex]

i say bermuda

[fci]

florida or a fish storm?

ther eis a good chance that it is niether

Another low rider???

[wxmann_91]

I think this is a Caribbean storm. Don't know why the models are pushing this in a NW'ly direction when flow at all levels in the atmosphere is easterly.

[canegrl04]

I personally don't see this being a follower of Dean and Felix.Its the time of year of strong cold fronts bringing fall weather to the US.There is going to be some Northward track of this thing.Depends on how much. Remember Charley and Ivan 2004.It can happen

[jaxfladude]

Hugo-like track anyone
JUST THE TRACK OF 1989'S HURRICANE HUGO, NOT THE DESTRUCTION AND DEATH AND INTENSITY.