TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[cycloneye]

I changed the point of reference in the title to (East of Windwards) as NHC has started to mention those islands in the TWO.

[alan1961]

This thing just might pull a delayed right turn. Overalll west motion now, BUT check how the flow turns almost due N at the islands and the large ULL straight up the 40W line is moving E and will clear soon.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

I'm with you on that Benson..at some point which i believe will be the islands this thing, if it developes, will start to make a turn NW or maybe even start to fall apart if its not got any significant strength to it..like i said earlier..whats happening over the islands to force that blob north..we'll have to wait and see of course..things do change quickly.

['CaneFreak]

This thing just might pull a delayed right turn. Overalll west motion now, BUT check how the flow turns almost due N at the islands and the large ULL straight up the 40W line is moving E and will clear soon.

steering currents look due west to me: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

I agree. When are they saying this should take a turn more northerly and what would steer it that way?

Ah....steering currents change with time...do you not see the trough over the northern plains coming down? Well, by the time this thing gets organized and forms into a TC, it will then be steered by the deeper layer in the atmosphere. Say, 200-850. If you have a trough even well to the north, a strong TC will feel this weakness (no matter the strength of the weakness) and gain at least a little latitude. Not trying to be ugly. Just trying to learn you a thing or two.

[Gustywind]

Hugo-like track anyone
JUST THE TRACK OF 1989'S HURRICANE HUGO, NOT THE DESTRUCTION AND DEATH AND INTENSITY.

Humm interresting , do you remember that Hugo has been remplaced by H ...Humberto on the official list.....does'nt like it remind me something hard to believe in 1989 in my island :double: , don"t want any member of this family crossing near the Carib and Guadeloupe 18 years after!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC maybe forming at 10.5 north/41 west based on the buoy to the east-northeast. Also the cloud pattern is starting to improve greatly. I think we will have a depression with in the next 12 hours if trend keeps up.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[jaxfladude]

Hugo-like track anyone
JUST THE TRACK OF 1989'S HURRICANE HUGO, NOT THE DESTRUCTION AND DEATH AND INTENSITY.

Humm interresting , do you remember that Hugo has been remplaced by H ...Humberto on the official list.....does'nt like it remind me something hard to believe in 1989 in my island , don"t want any member of this family crossing near the Carib and Guadeloupe 18 years after!

Sure do that is why I have such a bad gut feeling about this invest......
Neither do I for anyone.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC on quickscat is at 10.2 north/40.5 or so. Also convection is increasing right now. 25-30 knot winds over the southern quad.

[cycloneye]

Latest:

That dark hole is the center, filling in rapidly.

[jaxfladude]

Latest:

That "eye" had better not the center and is just a harmless feature that just looks like an eye...

The above reply just answered it for me...

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ed M adds some graphical evidence of the range of global model solutions and the subsequent track of the system if it continues to develop. The euro has a much different look than the GFS this go round. I am in the camp of seeing that troughiness over the EC this weekend. It's just getting too late in the year to have the zonal flow over the upper EC ( I know it has been a wierd pattern this year, by all the dead grass and trees around here) BUT a lot of the pros are in that camp too. Maybe 50/50 of staying on westward track for 36 hrs and getting chewed up near the SA coast, or a threat to the N islands.

I just think that the trough is going to dig this time (2nd one on Sat.) the first one (front) looks to stall by Thur.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day3nav_pre.html

[SapphireSea]

Well my two cents on this from pure observation is very simple. The system is becoming less of a broad low and consolidating almost for sure, this is definately going to organize. It should be near TD strength before D-Max ends, and organize it's center better during the D-Min (losing some of the impressive convection). And by tommorow's D-Max which because of it's western progression it wont be till 18:00 or 19:00 EST, I will boldly say a TD by tommorow 11PM. Too early to speculate if it will rapidly intensify, but I do not see anything that would prevent rapid intensification other than it's size, which may or may not be an issue when we finaly see what structure this storm takes. As for the track. The Northerly component of the clouds over the NE carrib is likely a pocket of shear generating some good storms. Other than that, closely inspecting the current synoptics our wave shall be moving to the W around 270-280 for the next 24-48 hours. The storm's depth and changing synoptics make any prediction of the path past 76 hours into nothing but a game of roulette at the casino.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This thing just might pull a delayed right turn. Overalll west motion now, BUT check how the flow turns almost due N at the islands and the large ULL straight up the 40W line is moving E and will clear soon.

steering currents look due west to me: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Ah....steering currents change with time...do you not see the trough over the northern plains coming down? Well, by the time this thing gets organized and forms into a TC, it will then be steered by the deeper layer in the atmosphere. Say, 200-850. If you have a trough even well to the north, a strong TC will feel this weakness (no matter the strength of the weakness) and gain at least a little latitude. Not trying to be ugly. Just trying to learn you a thing or two.

yes, I am aware that they change with time. However, this initial trough will likely never be strong enough to force the storm north. If I had to make a bet, I would say that 91L enters the Caribbean and does not miss it to the north and does not turn north once reaching the islands. Any possible northward turn, IMO, would be the result of the second, potentially stronger, trough in about a weeks time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Well my two cents on this from pure observation is very simple. The system is becoming less of a broad low and consolidating almost for sure, this is definately going to organize. It should be near TD strength before D-Max ends, and organize it's center better during the D-Min (losing some of the impressive convection). And by tommorow's D-Max which because of it's western progression it wont be till 18:00 or 19:00 EST, I will boldly say a TD by tommorow 11PM. Too early to speculate if it will rapidly intensify, but I do not see anything that would prevent rapid intensification other than it's size, which may or may not be an issue when we finaly see what structure this storm takes. As for the track. The Northerly component of the clouds over the NE carrib is likely a pocket of shear generating some good storms. Other than that, closely inspecting the current synoptics our wave shall be moving to the W around 270-280 for the next 24-48 hours. The storm's depth and changing synoptics make any prediction of the path past 76 hours into nothing but a game of roulette at the casino.

I agree, but I think it will be a depression earlier. Maybe not offically but a depression "earlier" based on facts and data.

[alan1961]

Well my two cents on this from pure observation is very simple. The system is becoming less of a broad low and consolidating almost for sure, this is definately going to organize. It should be near TD strength before D-Max ends, and organize it's center better during the D-Min (losing some of the impressive convection). And by tommorow's D-Max which because of it's western progression it wont be till 18:00 or 19:00 EST, I will boldly say a TD by tommorow 11PM. Too early to speculate if it will rapidly intensify, but I do not see anything that would prevent rapid intensification other than it's size, which may or may not be an issue when we finaly see what structure this storm takes. As for the track. The Northerly component of the clouds over the NE carrib is likely a pocket of shear generating some good storms. Other than that, closely inspecting the current synoptics our wave shall be moving to the W around 270-280 for the next 24-48 hours. The storm's depth and changing synoptics make any prediction of the path past 76 hours into nothing but a game of roulette at the casino.

definately no central american threat this time!

[ROCK]

I'll go to camp with you EWG..... first front is not going to matter as much as the 2nd one next weekend. How far it digs will be the key for a north turn...

[Gustywind]

Hugo-like track anyone
JUST THE TRACK OF 1989'S HURRICANE HUGO, NOT THE DESTRUCTION AND DEATH AND INTENSITY.

Humm interresting , do you remember that Hugo has been remplaced by H ...Humberto on the official list.....does'nt like it remind me something hard to believe in 1989 in my island , don"t want any member of this family crossing near the Carib and Guadeloupe 18 years after!

Sure do that is why I have such a bad gut feeling about this invest......
Neither do I for anyone.

Please don't tell us more about that!tkanks!!

[BensonTCwatcher]

Sure not a lock on any out come but after a look at TAFB in 48 hrs sfc forecast, the key seems like of this is stronger than 1009mb by Thursday. But any decent speed and development over the next 72 hrs and I think I'll avoid some crowburgers, but Iv'e eaten 'em before this far out

[jaxfladude]

My local news CH 12. just had a teaser with model going NNW to WNW and the is what track after the end of the models....FISH or a more W to the Carb. and/or CONUS...still too early for any certainty.....

[RL3AO]

The wave behind 91L (93L soon?) might compete with the system.