TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[njweather]

Really not looking good now. Suspect that the wave behind will take over.

Huh? When was it "not looking good"?

[LarryWx]

I posted at the title the position of the SSD dvorak T numbers in the title of thread as the system has passed 40w.There has been talk about the 48w longitud being important to the U.S. mainland,because that 48w line demarks a U.S. landfall to the east coast or not.I think it was Larrywx who brought the interesting stat about a system moving 315 degrees at 48w is not a threat to the East U.S. coast.

Does the latitude matter w/ this formula?

I was thinking of the latitud factor too,but the best person to answer that is Larrywx.

No matter what the latitude (I don't have a latitude breakdown), no T.C. since 1851 that officially moved 315+ degrees between any two recorded data points east of 48 W ever went on to hit the lower 48. I was pretty surprised when I discovered this.

[Zardoz]

Really not looking good now.

Seriously, what don't you like about it?

[wxmann_91]

Really not looking good now. Suspect that the wave behind will take over.

Huh? When was it "not looking good"?

Sorry, should've clarified. The convection is rather minimal near the center and instead is concentrated in the "rooster tail" (forgot what Derek called it; I mean the boundary between the SAL to the north and the moist environment along the ITCZ)... anyhow, that says some mid-level dry air intrusion and a transfer of energy from 91L closer to the wave to the east.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will see how it looks by the time the satellite comes back. If it has fired convection near its center, the chances for it to develop are high. If it has not then the chances are starting to go down. We will see.

This is how besides "Dean a Felix" you would have to go back to 94,97 to find a more inactive ACE year as this. I will look at each year to make sure I'm correct.

Yes slightly off.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2007 53 Ace
2006 78.5 Ace
2005 248 Ace
2004 225 ACE
2003 175 Ace
2002 66 Ace
2001 106 Ace
2000 116 Ace
99 177 Ace
98 182 Ace
97 40* Ace
96 166 Ace
95 228 Ace
94 32* Ace
93 39* Ace
92 75 Ace
91 34* Ace
90 90 Ace
89 135 Ace
88 103 Ace
87 34* Ace
86 33* Ace
85 88 Ace

All the * has less Ace then 2007. So 97,94,93, have less. So I was wrong a little above.

[philnyc]

Really not looking good now. Suspect that the wave behind will take over.

Huh? When was it "not looking good"?

Sorry, should've clarified. The convection is rather minimal near the center and instead is concentrated in the "rooster tail" (forgot what Derek called it; I mean the boundary between the SAL to the north and the moist environment along the ITCZ)... anyhow, that says some mid-level dry air intrusion and a transfer of energy from 91L closer to the wave to the east.

Sorry, wxmann_91, my friend, but that is really negligible dry air at mid-levels and is pretty well north of it. Also, it appears that 91L is moving faster than the one behind it, so it is not likely to "transfer" any energy to the eastern one. We'll see when the eclipse ends at 0615.
Phil

[KWT]

By the way if this does get into the Caribbean, I wonder what the chances are yet another cat-5, given we are still in mid-September waters are warm enough to support it...

[wxmann_91]

Sorry, wxmann_91, my friend, but that is really negligible dry air at mid-levels and is pretty well north of it. Also, it appears that 91L is moving faster than the one behind it, so it is not likely to "transfer" any energy to the eastern one. We'll see when the eclipse ends at 0615.
Phil

Well, there's definitely at least some stable air to the north of 91L given the stratocumulus deck. 0Z GFS initializations did indicate some SAL in the area. SAL analysis, even though somewhat unreliable, does agree.

[windstorm99]

NHC-205AM Discussion....

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...ANALYZED 1010
MB NEAR 10N43W...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ROUGHLY WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW AND FURTHER E NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
ITCZ FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
ON A GRADUAL ORGANIZING TREND AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 KT.

[KWT]

By the way the 'center' has been shifted to 11N according to the 06z model runs:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_91.gif

[Huckster]

Latest satellite image from 0600 shows maintenance of convection and increase as well...

[philnyc]

Sorry, wxmann_91, my friend, but that is really negligible dry air at mid-levels and is pretty well north of it. Also, it appears that 91L is moving faster than the one behind it, so it is not likely to "transfer" any energy to the eastern one. We'll see when the eclipse ends at 0615.
Phil

Well, there's definitely at least some stable air to the north of 91L given the stratocumulus deck. 0Z GFS initializations did indicate some SAL in the area. SAL analysis, even though somewhat unreliable, does agree.

But those factors are both weak and seem to apply to both systems. Anyway, because they're both so weak, they will probably both pulse on and off pretty much unexplainably for at least another 12 to 24 hours. Nothing exciting yet, but interesting, since they're so close. And although they're way too weak for Fujiwhara, there may be a little horse race going on. In a case like this, one almost always dominates and the other dies, sooner or later...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The EUMETSAT shows the 6z pic of the system, It looks much better.
http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image ... x.htm?l=en


I was blown away with the activity we had durning this time frame in 2004. Right now reminds me of Jully most years.

[Meso]

5:30 TWD

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[HURAKAN]

TOO CLOSE?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not really, look at the eastern pacific a few years ago.

91L looks much more organized this morning...I think its close to depression now.

[HURAKAN]

Station 41041 - Middle Atlantic
14.53 N 46 W (14°30'24" N 45°59'48" W)

Continuous Winds TIME
(GMT) WDIR WSPD
0950 ENE ( 68 deg ) 17.9 kts
0940 ENE ( 70 deg ) 15.2 kts
0930 ENE ( 66 deg ) 11.8 kts
0920 ENE ( 63 deg ) 12.2 kts
0910 ENE ( 68 deg ) 13.6 kts
0900 ENE ( 68 deg ) 14.8 kts

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0944 19.0 kts ENE ( 67 deg true )

This station is far from the presumed LLC of 91L and look at the wind speeds.