Post-90L: Discussions & Imagery: T1.0/1.0

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi jost posted a quickie comment that former 90L will not come ashore for at least 24 hours, perhaps not until 48 to 72 hours, and that he still thinks a TD or weak TS is possible.

[HouTXmetro]

There are two convective blobs in the Gulf... Which has the most potential?

[HouTXmetro]

Also, shouldn't the approaching front push the invest formerly known as 90L off to the east/NE?

[tailgater]

Shortwave sure makes it look like something is going on due southeast of Galveston.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html
radar
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... h&loop=yes
Yes I know about the radar from this distance.

[Stratosphere747]

I don't think it is any better "organized", but the movement could be a bigger issue. See no reason to put it back up as an invest - At least for now.

There have been more pathetic looking disturbances then x-90L put up as invests so I don't see why not. IMO

No question about that. Going by this mornings visible imagery, I just don't see any real improvement. Now with the proximity to land and the motion possibly slowing down - That may require a little more notice being given. Not only from the NHC, but coastal area folks because of the increasing rain threat.

[jasons2k]

AM Update from Jeff Lindner:

Per NHC and HPC discussions on tropical low over the western Gulf…some slow development of this system is possible as it moves toward the lower TX coast. IR images along with surface data support a broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles S of Galveston or about 180 miles E of Brownsville. This low is drifting toward the WNW at around 5-10mph. Upper air conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development over the next 12-24 hours as the system approaches the TX coast. GFS has joined the CMC, UKMET, and NAM and is now closing the system off into a closed low. GFS stalls the feature along the middle TX coast Wednesday night into late Thursday as steering flow collapses. We shall see what the first visible images show this morning. Point should be made that regardless if it develops or not lots of moisture will be thrown into SE TX on the NE side of the circulation center.

[Johnny]

he still thinks a TD or weak TS is possible.

Did he say that in one of his videos this morning? I read his latest update and he did say he thinks it will develop but he didn't lead on what so ever about how weak or strong.

[Portastorm]

The whole "steering currents collapsing" thought is also supported by the European, the last several GFS runs and the much-maligned NAM.

Somebody along the middle or upper Texas coast is going to get a soaking later this week! (speaking of which, the weak front is raining up a storm here this morning in Austin).

[KatDaddy]

Looking like a potential flood threat for SE TX especially along the coastal areas as a weak front and tropical moisture combine to produce heavy rain.

[Stormcenter]

The satellite loop speaks for itself.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

He compared to Allison, although he made a point to say he isn't predicitng a slow loop around Houston and 30" of rain.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A little better visual resolution on this visible satellite loop. Some of the early frames are still pre-dawn.

[ronjon]

I see a LLC near 25N-95W but it looks rather broad and may extend toward the NE under some of the heaviest convection. This feature seems to be getting it's act together - with rather weak steering currents the next 2-3 days this will be something to watch - will there also be a possible LLC relocation toward the NE under that heavy convection?

[Johnny]

Ed, yes...he compared it to Allison in nature of homegrown developement, not strength. Because of the possibility of a stall, it will be interesting to see what this system does as far as strength.

[xironman]

The Quickscat http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas13.png makes me think something is going on to the east under that convection.

[jasons2k]

IMO this should be an invest. There is clearly a broad LLC that has persisted since yersterday. I'm concerned that this system could stall and then move NE parallel to the TX coast later this week.

[Stratosphere747]

ABNT20 KNHC 111516 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0929.shtml
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

[Stormcenter]

Is it moving?

[Stratosphere747]

The "broad" area seems to be moving ever so slowly to the W/WNW.

[srainhoutx]

IMO this should be an invest. There is clearly a broad LLC that has persisted since yersterday. I'm concerned that this system could stall and then move NE parallel to the TX coast later this week.

Would have to agree jschlitz. Should make for an interesting several days along Upper TX/ LA Coasts in my humble opinion.