TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

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Derek Ortt

#501 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:35 am

it slowed because it is passing south of the weakness in the ridge to its north
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#502 Postby Praxus » Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:38 am

Not very impressed with it this morning. Guess we'll see if it can pull itself together over the next couple of days.
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#503 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:40 am

I think the airmass bending down in front of it is clear on Central Atlantic visible. I wish I had the computer savvy to highlight it on the screen.


If this were a pure reaction to ridge weakness, the disturbance would jump more NW. This slowdown without any apparent jump NW is more conforming to the situation I described (a blocking synoptic).
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Derek Ortt

#504 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:50 am

to be honest, I have never heard of your description hindering intensification, Sanibel, not from any of my collegues, ever

Center may be relocating closer to 12N, still moving primarily to the west. I cannot see anything closer to the 10N position
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Re:

#505 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:53 am

Derek Ortt wrote:to be honest, I have never heard of your description hindering intensification, Sanibel, not from any of my collegues, ever

Center may be relocating closer to 12N, still moving primarily to the west. I cannot see anything closer to the 10N position


If the center forms around 12N what implications are there to the track?
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DrewFL

Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#506 Postby DrewFL » Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:59 am

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 11 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-110

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NOAA MAY FLY RESEARCH MISSIONS
ON THE WAVE EAST OF THE ISLANDS BEGINING 14/0000Z.
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#507 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Sep 11, 2007 9:27 am

I think we can pretty safely say this system will take a more northerly track than Dean or Felix looking at the models , I would not expect this to enter the carribean except maybe the extreme northern carribean.
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#508 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 11, 2007 9:38 am

still think it turns into the weakness and bends back west around 18/50 before turning NW and N. May be a threat to Bermuda but primarily a shipping threat...
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#509 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Sep 11, 2007 9:42 am

Yep- there is just not enough ridge to the north for the next week or more to keep this moving west to get it past 70 degrees longitude. This is just my opinion based on looking at the 500mb pattern on most of the global models.
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#510 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 11, 2007 9:42 am

If 91L follows the models, it's almost 100% fish for the Islands & CONUS, Bermuda would have to watch. This N turn seems drastic and I'm not seeing it on the satellite. I wish the NHC would make this a TD so we could see where they think it will go.
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#511 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Sep 11, 2007 9:43 am

I just got a hold of the center. I see a band of rotating clouds going inward from the center. I have the center at roughly 12.9 N 41.8 W. If this is where the center is located, then I would say this thing has a fairly decent chance to develop in the next 12-24 hours. I see banding, inflow, outflow and all the things we tend to look at when looking for development. I have plotted the center movement and have it moving roughly 275 degrees and about 12.5 knots.

oh...and here's the link...sorry...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#512 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2007 9:49 am

Visible loop

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

A Question to any pro met.What effects if any may have a weak low NE of 91L to the track?
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#513 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 11, 2007 9:50 am

Many times with weak systems and a weakness to the north the LLC will continue reforming North...Having said that Ill go with 14.5 Wed morning..
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Re: 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions=11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#514 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 11, 2007 9:57 am

How can some say 100% fish just because models are pointing northwest right now? That's ridiculous. Have you heard of "beyond 5 days???"
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#515 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2007 9:58 am

With Gabrielle gone, all eyes turn to this blob.
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Re: 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions=11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#516 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Sep 11, 2007 10:00 am

I think this will be a threat anywhere from the Eastern Gulf to East coast.IF it developes
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Re:

#517 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Sep 11, 2007 10:03 am

CrazyC83 wrote:With Gabrielle gone, all eyes turn to this blob.


I think this is more than a blob....look at the RGB Loop....you can see banding and wrapping around of the convection all the way around the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
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#518 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 11, 2007 10:08 am

My reasoning is based on Global model continuity..I've not declared this to be "a no threat" YET but the model output favors this outcome..
Last edited by Vortex on Tue Sep 11, 2007 10:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#519 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Sep 11, 2007 10:12 am

How can you say it is based on model continuity? This is the first run where the models have shifted further to the north and east.
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#520 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 11, 2007 10:17 am

Let me clarify GLOBALS and the weakness...They've been consistent for the last 3-5 days
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