Thanks for the explanation wxman57
here is the local thinking from the NWS in JAX.
----------------------------------------------------------
...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
MAKE A SIGNIFICANT UPSWING THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUNDAY TO BE A DOWN RIGHT WASHOUT. DISCREPANCIES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/ETA CAMP AND THE CANADIAN/GFS SUITE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
OVERALL IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AND
MORE TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION WITH A DISTINCT SEPARATE CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WHICH REMAINS INDEPENDENT OF APPROACHING
TROUGH. GFS STILL CARRIES SOME OF THE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF WHERE IT DEVELOPS A DECENT SURFACE LOW WITH STRONG
WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL SIDE HEAVILY WITH THE ETA THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AS ITS REPRESENTATION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT
SYNOPTIC SITUATION. THIS STILL RESULTS IN A DECENT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE AREA...BUT RAIN BAND SHOULD PIVOT ENOUGH NORTH AND SOUTH
TO PREVENT ANY VERY LONG TIME PERIODS OVER A PARTICULAR AREA.
GOING WITH THE ETA GUIDANCE KEEPS CURRENT GRIDS PRETTY MUCH IN TACT
WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS FOR SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR MARION
COUNTY WHERE LIKELY MAY BE NEEDED. FOR SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT LIKELY FORECAST BUT SHIFT HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA AS MOISTURE AXIS PIVOTS NORTHWARD.
...EXTENDED...
DESPITE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ETA SOLUTION TODAY...A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS EXIST FOR THE EXTENDED AND LARGELY DEPEND ON
DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA TO SUPPORT HIGH END SCATTERED
POPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EXPECTED BY WEEKS
END AS BERMUDA RIDGE TRIES TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
Carribean disturbance Updated
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
GalvestonDuck
- Category 5
- Posts: 15941
- Age: 57
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
- Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)
-
PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
I thought about that all day at work today about my forecast last night ... I think the energy is going to split ... I'm reviewing the model runs from today and so far, I'm just waiting on the ECMWF run ...
Even HPC mentioned the scenario ...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM AGAIN TODAY IS THAT SOME MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEMS UP
FROM THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEX INTO THE SRN/SERN US WITH
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH MORE NRN STREAM FEATURES
ACROSS THE ERN US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FLARING ACROSS THE NWRN CARIBBEAN
BUT THE FLOW SEEMS QUITE SHEARED CLOSER TO THE US ON THE SE
PERIPHERY OF A POS-TILT MID-UPPER LEVEL GULF OF MEX TROF.
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF GFS RUNS HAVE OFFERED
TROPICAL SCENARIOS WITH LANDFALLS FOCUSED FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE FL PANHANDLE BY SUN OR MON. THE NEW 12 UTC
GFS NOW FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN GULF AND TAKES
A WEAK BUT MOISTURE LADEN LOW TO THE W-CENTRAL GULF
COAST MON. THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS OFFERS A DEEPER LOW
AND KEY MORE ON THE CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. THE UKMET AND ECMWF DOWNPLAY CENTRAL AND ERN
GULF DEVELOPMENT BUT ECMWF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN
GULF THREATENS TX AND THE WRN GULF COAST. THE NEW 12 UTC
ETA IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE NEW 12 UTC GFS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
BUT HAVE ACCORDINGLY DECIDED WITH NHC TO ACCEPT
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SRN GULF OF MEX SURFACE LOW IN LINE
WITH A COMPOSITE OF NEW 12 UTC GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING THAT LOW UP THRU THE WRN GULF OF
MEX BY MON PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OVER VICINITY
OF TX OR THE W-CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER MON.
...REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS...
...AK...
MAJOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BERING STRAIT SHOULD
SUPPORT/FOCUS WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
WRN AK MON INTO TUE WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO INCREASINGLY
EFFECT AREAS OF THE INTERIOR AND SRN/SERN AK AS WE GO THRU
THE WORKWEEK AS SYSTEM ENERGY WORKS SLOWLY EWD.
...NWRN EWD TO THE N-CENTRAL US...
MEAN BUT POS-TILT TROFFING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND ON THE COOL SIDE ACROSS THE NWRN
US FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BUT SUSPECT THAT MOST
PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO FAVORED TERRAIN.
THE DECENT BET FOR SCATTERED OR BETTER CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM MAY BE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
BY THE MID-LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IMPULSES RIDE THE
WESTERLIES OVER A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE
...NERN US...
THE PASSAGE/EXIT OF A MAIN MID-LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT MON
INTO TUE SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BUT
SUSPECT THAT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ORGANIZED PCPN
ACROSS THE REGION MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS
IMPULSE ENERGY RIDES AGAIN IN MORE ERNEST ALONG THE US/CAN
BORDER TOWARD THE REGION.
...SRN AND SERN US...
TROPICAL ACTIVITY COULD EFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND COULD SUPPORT SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
A BROAD REGION. RESIDUAL POOLING OF DEEP MOISTURE COULD
STAY TRAPPED OVER THE REGION ALL NEXT WEEK AND FUEL
SCATTERED TO MORE WIDESPREAD DAILY CONVECTION FROM THE S-
CENTRAL AND SRN/SERN US INLAND TO A STALLED FRONTAL DRAPE.
SCHICHTEL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
Even HPC mentioned the scenario ...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM AGAIN TODAY IS THAT SOME MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEMS UP
FROM THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEX INTO THE SRN/SERN US WITH
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH MORE NRN STREAM FEATURES
ACROSS THE ERN US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FLARING ACROSS THE NWRN CARIBBEAN
BUT THE FLOW SEEMS QUITE SHEARED CLOSER TO THE US ON THE SE
PERIPHERY OF A POS-TILT MID-UPPER LEVEL GULF OF MEX TROF.
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF GFS RUNS HAVE OFFERED
TROPICAL SCENARIOS WITH LANDFALLS FOCUSED FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE FL PANHANDLE BY SUN OR MON. THE NEW 12 UTC
GFS NOW FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN GULF AND TAKES
A WEAK BUT MOISTURE LADEN LOW TO THE W-CENTRAL GULF
COAST MON. THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS OFFERS A DEEPER LOW
AND KEY MORE ON THE CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. THE UKMET AND ECMWF DOWNPLAY CENTRAL AND ERN
GULF DEVELOPMENT BUT ECMWF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN
GULF THREATENS TX AND THE WRN GULF COAST. THE NEW 12 UTC
ETA IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE NEW 12 UTC GFS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
BUT HAVE ACCORDINGLY DECIDED WITH NHC TO ACCEPT
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SRN GULF OF MEX SURFACE LOW IN LINE
WITH A COMPOSITE OF NEW 12 UTC GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING THAT LOW UP THRU THE WRN GULF OF
MEX BY MON PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OVER VICINITY
OF TX OR THE W-CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER MON.
...REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS...
...AK...
MAJOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BERING STRAIT SHOULD
SUPPORT/FOCUS WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
WRN AK MON INTO TUE WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO INCREASINGLY
EFFECT AREAS OF THE INTERIOR AND SRN/SERN AK AS WE GO THRU
THE WORKWEEK AS SYSTEM ENERGY WORKS SLOWLY EWD.
...NWRN EWD TO THE N-CENTRAL US...
MEAN BUT POS-TILT TROFFING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND ON THE COOL SIDE ACROSS THE NWRN
US FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BUT SUSPECT THAT MOST
PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO FAVORED TERRAIN.
THE DECENT BET FOR SCATTERED OR BETTER CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM MAY BE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
BY THE MID-LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IMPULSES RIDE THE
WESTERLIES OVER A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE
...NERN US...
THE PASSAGE/EXIT OF A MAIN MID-LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT MON
INTO TUE SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BUT
SUSPECT THAT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ORGANIZED PCPN
ACROSS THE REGION MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS
IMPULSE ENERGY RIDES AGAIN IN MORE ERNEST ALONG THE US/CAN
BORDER TOWARD THE REGION.
...SRN AND SERN US...
TROPICAL ACTIVITY COULD EFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND COULD SUPPORT SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
A BROAD REGION. RESIDUAL POOLING OF DEEP MOISTURE COULD
STAY TRAPPED OVER THE REGION ALL NEXT WEEK AND FUEL
SCATTERED TO MORE WIDESPREAD DAILY CONVECTION FROM THE S-
CENTRAL AND SRN/SERN US INLAND TO A STALLED FRONTAL DRAPE.
SCHICHTEL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], SconnieCane and 38 guests