TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Derek Ortt]

and the same globals have also stopped the storm for no aparaent reason for the last 3 days, and this has most certainly not happened

Also, after 4 days, the weakness is gone from the globals; thus, the bend back to the west

['CaneFreak]

I try not to look at the globals for systems in the deep tropics. As we have seen with Dean and Felix, the globals have a HORRIBLE handle on systems in the deep tropics. I try to use the BAMS, BAMM, BAMD, GFDL, HWRF, and CONU guidance to get an idea. However, you should notice that the globals did an excellent job with Gabrielle as she was a MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM.

[Derek Ortt]

CONU is a concensus of GLOBAL and the GFDL models

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 355
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

['CaneFreak]

CONU is a concensus of GLOBAL and the GFDL models

Ok, then leave out the CONU part...thanks bud

[gatorcane]

notice the NHC says its only moving WNW at 10mph...

it has slowed this morning...

The Global models are not that far off as they indicated the system would slow down...but one thing is for sure it continues to move WNW.
The globals thought it would come to a halt.

[Blown Away]

At 10mph we will be tracking this one for a long time, nearly 1200 miles from the Islands and 2200 miles from the CONUS. NHC took a step back w/ development in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. I still think Humberto is one his way.

[cpdaman]

the TWO must be written an hour and a half before it's posting

['CaneFreak]

the TWO must be written an hour and a half before it's posting

Why would you say that without a statement to back it up? That just doesnt make sense to me!!!

[BigA]

I dont think that this system has really been delayed that much by the decrease in convection. There is definitely some turning to it, and so long as it doesnt become utterly devoid of convection today, it should fire some back up tonight, and with the remaining fairly weak convection largely over what I think is the "center," when/if it refires tonight, my guess would be that it would refire over the center, rather than in a linear pattern to the north like the previous couple of days.

[gatorcane]

BIG burst of deep red convection has just started blowing up near the "center". Check it out on this loop. Could this be the beginning?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Vortex]

good I gator

[BigA]

Ahh, gatorcane, you beat me to it. I just saw that flare up of red. This could be the beginning of a trend than ends in Humberto (or Ingrid if the gulf low starts organizing) or it could be a transient feature. However, convection building around noon seems to be a sign of organization, given the whole DMIN DMAX stuff.

Sigh, I have too much time in college...must write paper...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[N2FSU]

Just saw that red burst also. Let's see if it persists now.

[cpdaman]

the TWO must be written an hour and a half before it's posting

Why would you say that without a statement to back it up? That just doesnt make sense to me!!!

cane freak sorry i thought out of all people it would be obvious to you, their is definitely low level turning and increased organization IMO (like you pointed out about an hour and a half ago)

[BigA]

I'll be the first to admit that looking at something frame by frame is not the best way of analyzing a system, but according to the 15:45 NRL satellite image, it looks like the deep convection is growing.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:





You guys must be desperate for some action in the tropics b/c getting excited for a t-storm is an interesting response!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the 8 to 10 day mean 0Z GFS 500 mb heights is correct (see right hand side) this could come close to, or run, the East Coast. The Euro would seem to imply a close call, but probably a fish storm.


If, of course, the 8 to 10 day model means are correct...

[Blown Away]

From The Weather Channel:

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, we are watching a few areas of disturbed weather. The one that is most likely to develop is a low pressure area located in about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Conditions are favorable for this to become a tropical depression over the next couple of days. Another area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is near the Lesser Antilles, but it is not expected to develop. Showers and thunderstorms continue across the southern Gulf of Mexico, but it too is not expected to develop.

TWC thinks 91L will develop, you know they are the
Hurricane Central.