TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[storms in NC]

This may be our first really fish storm

out of RDU

The high build back in sun for 10-14 days


LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND BACK THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH A
LEAST SOME OVERRUNNING INDICTED. TO THIS APPEARS OUR BEST SHOT AT
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HIGHEST POP WILL BE ADVERTISED FRIDAY.

HOPEFULLY WE WILL GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL BEFORE THE STRONG
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
MUCH COOLER... BUT DRY PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY LIKELY STRETCHING
OUT INTO THE 10 TO 14 DAY PERIOD.

['CaneFreak]

the TWO must be written an hour and a half before it's posting

Why would you say that without a statement to back it up? That just doesnt make sense to me!!!

cane freak sorry i thought out of all people it would be obvious to you, their is definitely low level turning and increased organization IMO (like you pointed out about an hour and a half ago)

Oh, sorry dude...yeah....exactly.

[chadtm80]

Accessible and updated on homepage

[HURAKAN]

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[Blown Away]

This may be our first really fish storm
out of RDU
The high build back in sun for 10-14 days

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND BACK THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH A
LEAST SOME OVERRUNNING INDICTED. TO THIS APPEARS OUR BEST SHOT AT
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HIGHEST POP WILL BE ADVERTISED FRIDAY.

HOPEFULLY WE WILL GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL BEFORE THE STRONG
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
MUCH COOLER... BUT DRY PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY LIKELY STRETCHING
OUT INTO THE 10 TO 14 DAY PERIOD.

Well, 91L should be near 60W by Sunday and maybe that NW movement by the models near 60W is in response to this weakness. Question is will that weakness be strong enough to lift 91L out to sea? If not seems the high builds back in and may drive 91L back to the WNW towards the EC. I have a feeling this will be fun to track.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it is more WNW now. I guess the ridge is weak - much weaker than Dean and Felix. The problem is that it is the same airmass that evaporated 92L. It isn't favorable to deep convection. You need deep convection to get the whole engine going.

[KWT]

91L movement is exactly as was expected by the GFS, at least its motion, west till today and then WNW/NW for about 48-72hrs, then a slow bend back west as a new high forms...don't think there is much chance its going to gain enough latitude to recurve, its still pretty deep south for that sort of talk. I suspect it'll be up around 15-17N by late Thursday when it'll start to bend back westwards.

this is really taking its time developing but that was always the case, probably develops either late Wednesday or Thursday but as long as shear doesn't increase then its ony going to get into higher heat content as it goes WNW.

[fci]

The question to me is whether Invest 91 will be around for very much longer.

It looked a whole lot more impressive one and two days ago.

[HURAKAN]

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[SapphireSea]

So long that there is a circulation there exists a chance of development. I knew that D-MIN was going to trash this system's convection. That will change later tonight.

[Sanibel]

The wave behind it appears to be competing for surface inflow.

[Derek Ortt]

the wave cannot get inflow ebcause there is a well-defined monsoon trough, that has been robbing it of inflow

the wave behind may make matters worse

still going with 30-40 percent chance of development, but am monitoring during the day

[cycloneye]

91L movement is exactly as was expected by the GFS, at least its motion, west till today and then WNW/NW for about 48-72hrs, then a slow bend back west as a new high forms...don't think there is much chance its going to gain enough latitude to recurve, its still pretty deep south for that sort of talk. I suspect it'll be up around 15-17N by late Thursday when it'll start to bend back westwards.

this is really taking its time developing but that was always the case, probably develops either late Wednesday or Thursday but as long as shear doesn't increase then its ony going to get into higher heat content as it goes WNW.

The key about the track is if when it bends back west to westnorthwest it will be above 18n,the latitud of the northern Leeward Islands or not.

[windstorm99]

[KWT]

Yeah big question that one cycloneye, its really 50-50 IMO, weakness should allow to take a generally WNW/NW type track for the next couple of days, tohugh the exact track will determine whether it gets above about 17-19N that would help it to avoid the islands.

It doesn't look as good as yesterday though it does seem to have some cyclonic rotation still and convection is still fairly close to the so-called center.

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure. That "inflow" looks to be going right through the second wave and curling up into that big low - like feature swirling above the second wave in the Atlantic airmass. As Derek said, that can't be good for 91L. But the second wave itself is taking on pseudo curvature (like 92L) as Hurakan pointed out.

[SapphireSea]

I noticed that monsoon trough, and I agree with Ortt that this indeed decreases the chance for development a good deal, this is also likely what's causing the slow movement progression of the system. I don't believe the wave behind it will really be a hinderance though, unless it organizes faster than 91L. 60% in my books.

[Epsilon_Fan]

yeah, it kinda looks like this wave is interacting with the wave behind it. The convection of the second wave looks more impressove today.

[ronjon]

Gotta love that wacky Canadian - a trifecta of storms on their way.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007091112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[HURAKAN]

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