TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[BigA]

Gut feeling: Convection keeps trying to build, as evidenced by the new burst off the old burst on the east side. (For what microanalysis is worth.) I have a feeling that come tonight, the convection will consolidate near the center, and remain solid. I had this feeling yesterday though, and it did not come to pass.

91L doesn't necessarily have to develop immediately; it could remain in this state all the way to north of the islands and then deepen.

[skysummit]

LOL....that good ole Canadian....4 storms! LOL

91L would be the middle of the 3 to the right...at 144 hours:

[Sanibel]

The visible Floater loop makes the surface center look like a loose swirl between 11N and 12N around the 41 longitude. This would mean the storm effectively stalled since last night. The swirl at 12.5N would be a sheared mid-level reflection.

Something says still a go with my instinct.

[Derek Ortt]

if the center is east of the convection, it has not stalled

we were just tracking the wrong feature yesterday. The entire mass is moving at about 275/10

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

if the center is east of the convection, it has not stalled

we were just tracking the wrong feature yesterday. The entire mass is moving at about 275/10

Derek, do you think the system will keep moving in a general W to WNW direction or it will start moving more NW as the models are suggesting?

[Derek Ortt]

it may have a defacto NW motion if the center keeps relocating farther north


may be like Irene from 2 years ago. Was very frustrating as the storm kept moving west, but the center kept relocating and the models were getting it right for the wrong reasons

[gatorcane]

LOL....that good ole Canadian....4 storms! LOL

91L would be the middle of the 3 to the right...at 144 hours:

hopefully the Canadian doesn't have the steering synoptics right. Based on that there is a big ridge (Indian-fall like) sitting over the EC of the US that would prevent recurvature.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TPC 2:05pm Discussion

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 11N41W OR ABOUT 1085 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN
A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM SHOWS VERY CLEAR THE SLOW WWD PROPAGATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.

[Zardoz]

Something says still a go with my instinct.

But is it starting to run out of time?

[BigA]

Something says still a go with my instinct.

But is it starting to run out of time?

Why would it be running out of time? Does it have to develop before it gets to the islands? Its still only at about 42 west, in any case.

[cycloneye]

Why it is running out of time?

[alienstorm]

Remember that this season the waves have not developed until they reach 50W (Except Dean). It could very well take another day or two. Also, there is a possibility that it combines with the wave behind it, even though the Canadian is saying it won't.

[gatorcane]

91L must be feeling that weakness north of it right now. But look at that huge Bermuda High. We would expect a WNW to W bend at some point once it starts feeling that ridge.

I think that is what the models are hinting at. Here is the mean mid-level steering currents currently:

[Fego]

Finally I see the WNW movement

[windstorm99]

12z GFDL now has increased its intensity forecast of 91L into a hurricane.

[storms in NC]

How can it run out of time when it is no where near land? I could see if we had a set up like the gulf where it did run out of time. But this is a long ways out. Not even to the 55 to where they can fly into it. Not saying that they need to yet. But it will not take long for it to build once it starts. They seem to want to take their time this year. Just sit and wait is all you can do.

[canegrl04]

LOL....that good ole Canadian....4 storms! LOL

91L would be the middle of the 3 to the right...at 144 hours:

Canadian enjoys the possibility of us in dire trouble

[windstorm99]

Close up visible loop...

[windstorm99]

HWRF track....

[Lowpressure]

Finally I see the WNW movement

I see a developing cyclone. Not nearly as big a system as yesterday, but better structure for sure.