TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[BigA]

I see a developing cyclone. Not nearly as big a system as yesterday, but better structure for sure

I was going to say something to the same effect. Definitely looks better than this morning.

[windstorm99]

The recent convective explosion i believe is closer to a better discerned circulation so in all this thing could really take off later this afternoon into this evening.Adrian

[skysummit]

12z GFDL now has increased its intensity forecast of 91L into a hurricane.

Yea, but it's also showing 91L as a TS in as little as 48 hours so it may be a tad too aggressive IMO, but you never know.

[cycloneye]

It looks like a 280 degree movement.

[cycloneye]

11/1745 UTC 11.7N 41.1W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Derek Ortt]

SSD is using a different center than they used yesterday as this fix is 3 degrees east of the previous

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Looking like a TD w/ nice convection burst near center and moving just N of west.

[MWatkins]

Looks like we are seeing the first strong, convective burst, suggesting that 91L is getting a little better organized.

It also looks like that burst is going up in the NW quad...and that there is a good amount of easterly shear present.

MW

[cycloneye]

That means Mike that the center is in the back end of convection right?

[whereverwx]

It looks horrible. It could still develop, but the shear is really kicking its you know what.

[Gustywind]

91L must be feeling that weakness north of it right now. But look at that huge Bermuda High. We would expect a WNW to W bend at some point once it starts feeling that ridge.

I think that is what the models are hinting at. Here is the mean mid-level steering currents currently:

Absolutely gatorcane, good and much more credible analysis...because if you look carefully to the chart, the wave is under a short weakness right now ....allowing the temporally sligth wnw mouvement since this morning, but after that... sterring are quite strong keep it on a wnw and eventually w course at the end of the forecast period....The high of bermuda is very amazing and we can imagine that the system won't be able to be higher than 18 or 19n....we will see but we should have to keep in my mind that this strong high in the next couple days will interact on the path and maybe prevent..
any recurve out of sea if this possible trend happens( should it verifies!), i hope it will weaken to the great delight of the carib residents...but we're way of many scenarios,...if no....troubles down the road for us in the islands maybe Leewards and Northern Leewards islands...
In fact i don't like this HIGH at the end of the forecast period...forcing the feature to be on possible wnw overall path near the islands or closer to put us in a suspicious situation.. during the next couple of days...[color=#FF0000]something to watch for sure!!![/color]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

It looks horrible. It could still develop, but the shear is really kicking its you know what.

Your kidding right? It looks to me like it has finally began to develop.

[MWatkins]

That means Mike that the center is in the back end of convection right?

That is what it looks like to me...the "center" looks to be a little to the SE of that burst...although there is a little more activity going on further south...

MW

[Blown Away]

91L has taken the steps to becoming a TD this afternoon. Humberto is on his way.

[skysummit]

Does anyone agree with me on this? I'm seeing two swirls...one possible at the mid levels which is moving more northwest, and a low level circulation just to the southeast of the main area of convection which is moving just north of due west. Also, it looks like the wave to the east is kind of taking away some of the inflow.....all that together with easterly shear is giving 91L a tough time for now. Anyone agree?

***Disregard my backwardsness in direction I meant Inflow from East....NOT west

['CaneFreak]

i sure do there skysummit....been trying to figure that one out all day...looks like we got another case of the Gabrielle syndrome here..MLC is fighting LLC instead of them working in tandem with one another....not going to get a vertically stacked system within the next 24 hours at this rate...

'Canefreak

[whereverwx]

It looks horrible. It could still develop, but the shear is really kicking its you know what.

Your kidding right? It looks to me like it has finally began to develop.

Well, while it may be a bit more concentrated than yesteryday, however, when I first saw the visible I was a somewhat surprised. The shear is evidently blowing the thunderstoms away from the center, wherever it is. It will still intensity--I should have edited my post--but I can't see that happening soon.

[Brent]

Hmmmmm this morning I was not impressed and started to think it may not develop at all(I didn't post on the board), but it does look a little better this afternoon.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The shear is still there but you only have to look back at 38w to see the much stronger shear enviornment it has escaped. With shear forecasted to lessen even more ahead of it and warmer SST's awaiting it I would say this is close to a done deal for development as the basic structure is finally set in place.

[gatorcane]

This system continues to organize and due to its WNW movement will probably not be a low runner.

I do think it is slowly outpowering the wave behind it...