TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[gatorcane]

Current Wind shear tendency. This map shows if the ULL winds are decreasing or increasing. You can see out ahead of our invest that the ULL winds are decreasing. That is why the NHC is saying ULL winds are becoming more favorable:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is on the southeast edge of the convection, it appears that it is quickly becoming better defined. Also convection is holding. A classic sign that a cyclone is forming. It appears to be just moving north of west right now...

[windstorm99]

On this (visible loop) you can see the thunderstorm activity now blowing up near the llc over very close to it....If the current trend persists i think we may see a TD tommorow morning.

[storms in NC]

On this (visible loop) you can see the thunderstorm activity now blowing up near the llc over ver close to it....If the current trend persists i think we may see a TD tommorow morning.

I have a feeling that they will wait a day or two before calling it a TD. JMO

[windstorm99]

On this (visible loop) you can see the thunderstorm activity now blowing up near the llc over ver close to it....If the current trend persists i think we may see a TD tommorow morning.

I have a feeling that they will wait a day or two before calling it a TD. JMO

I agree

[skysummit]

Yea, that MLC (if that's even what it was) looks to be slowly dying out and convection is now developing just to the south of the LLC. I agree with many of you that this may be the first sign of a gradual developing phase.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I have a feeling that they will wait a day or two before calling it a TD. JMO[/quote]

I agree [/quote]

I think tommrrow at 11:00 when they have a fresh set of visables. This thing is definitely on it's way to Humberto.

[punkyg]

Since yall saying the center is getting better defined now i really wanna see what it does tonight and how it looks on quikscat.

[windstorm99]

Convection continues to increase near the LLC....

[punkyg]

91L is starting to look better, but i have to say the wave behind 91L is also looking good am i right?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

91L is starting to look better, but i have to say the wave behind 91L is also looking good am i right?

~~~~~~~~~~
The wave behind it is encountering the shear that 91L has been going through the past few days. Also, that wave has the big low level swirl associated with it to the north and now seperating to the NW to deal with. Maybe in a couple days , when it gets to 91L's location, conditions will be good for development.

[Zardoz]

91L is starting to look better, but i have to say the wave behind 91L is also looking good am i right?

To my uneducated eye it sure as heck does, and I continue to wonder about the interaction between the two.

Floater Two

[artist]

I wonder how many more days we will be sitting here wondering "Is the center here?" or "Is it over there?" Just wish it would do something - even if it's wrong! (not really on the wrong thing - unless wrong to some is disappear! )

[RL3AO]

I see convection is starting to increase. I wonder if the NHC will break out the "a tropical depression could form later tonight or tomorrow" at 530 or 1030.

[Anthonyl]

I need some clarification on two observations, firstly it seems like the MLC further north seems to be collapsing and a more defined center forming further south in the vicinty of the increase of heavier precipitation. Also from the last set of frames it appears that the system is moving more due west or 270 that the more pronouced wnw direction indicated.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this follows the Gfs/Gfdl or new hurricane models this could be a "fish", but a new ridge may form. So its not a clear cut forecast. On the other hand if the models have any clue at all on how to forecast, another system maybe that system to the east of this, could go onto become Ingrid. We will see.

[Cyclenall]

This is an opinion and not an offical product or forecast.

Second % chance of Invest 91L becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 60%
Tropical Storm: 55%
Hurricane: 50%

I think it has gotten some more convection but still a little shear hampering TC formation. I gave it a 50% chance of being a TD by 11:00 pm tonight, yesterday and now I change that to 35% and 50% for tomorrow at 11:00 am.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a question for the mets..

How can 91L move NW like the models are trying to show when there is a obviously a ridge to it's north and all the steering current guidance indicates a westward motion?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

From what I see, it doesn't seem possible...at least not in the short term (24-48 hours). Is there something I am not seeing though that would make a sudden turn to the NW possible over the next 12-24 hours?

[gatorcane]

If this follows the Gfs/Gfdl or new hurricane models this could be a "fish", but a new ridge may form. So its not a clear cut forecast. On the other hand if the models have any clue at all on how to forecast, another system maybe that system to the east of this, could go onto become Ingrid. We will see.

Based on the last run of the GFS, it takes this WNW to NW and then it ultimately builds a ridge over the EC and brings this system into the FL peninsula.

But that was just one run and way out mind you so don't take this too seriously. We need consistency.

[skysummit]

I need some clarification on two observations, firstly it seems like the MLC further north seems to be collapsing and a more defined center forming further south in the vicinty of the increase of heavier precipitation. Also from the last set of frames it appears that the system is moving more due west or 270 that the more pronouced wnw direction indicated.

That's exactly what I'm seeing. I saw that MLC moving northwest earlier, however, it looks to be collapsing. Now, I'm seeing a primary area of circulation taking shape just to the south of the increased convection....even though convection is now increasing pretty darn close to the center now.