TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[CalmBeforeStorm]

This is an opinion and not an offical product or forecast.

Second % chance of Invest 91L becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 60%
Tropical Storm: 55%
Hurricane: 50%

I think it has gotten some more convection but still a little shear hampering TC formation. I gave it a 50% chance of being a TD by 11:00 pm tonight, yesterday and now I change that to 35% and 50% for tomorrow at 11:00 am.

Considering the improved structure, the time of year and where it's at in the Atlantic I say it's a 90-95% chance this is a depression and given the climatological factors not much less chance that it becomes a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane. This is close to a done deal.

[chadtm80]

[RL3AO]

This might be the storm JB has been waiting a long time for...

[Blown Away]

If this follows the Gfs/Gfdl or new hurricane models this could be a "fish", but a new ridge may form. So its not a clear cut forecast. On the other hand if the models have any clue at all on how to forecast, another system maybe that system to the east of this, could go onto become Ingrid. We will see.

Based on the last run of the GFS, it takes this WNW to NW and then it ultimately builds a ridge over the EC and brings this system into the FL peninsula.

But that was just one run and way out mind you so don't take this too seriously. We need consistency.

Can you provide a link or graphic to that run?

[Gustywind]

I have a question for the mets..

How can 91L move NW like the models are trying to show when there is a obviously a ridge to it's north and all the steering current guidance indicates a westward motion?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

From what I see, it doesn't seem possible...at least not in the short term (24-48 hours). Is there something I am not seeing though that would make a sudden turn to the NW possible over the next 12-24 hours?

Absolutely i wrote that in my last reply, the High is pretty amazing well stalled and strong!, the wnw movement is for o moment , there's alwayq eratical mouvements at early stages the whole envellope seems to my untrained eyes drifting west or very slight wnw but given the big HIGH i doubts about suddent NW path , we will see all the window are open in september lool
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[gatorcane]

If this follows the Gfs/Gfdl or new hurricane models this could be a "fish", but a new ridge may form. So its not a clear cut forecast. On the other hand if the models have any clue at all on how to forecast, another system maybe that system to the east of this, could go onto become Ingrid. We will see.

Based on the last run of the GFS, it takes this WNW to NW and then it ultimately builds a ridge over the EC and brings this system into the FL peninsula.

But that was just one run and way out mind you so don't take this too seriously. We need consistency.

Can you provide a link or graphic to that run?

User ronjon posted this in the Models thread for this invest:

Well all I can add is that the latest 12Z GFS builds a huge dome of high pressure in the western Atlantic and pushes 91L from about 20N-60W into the FL peninsula. The GFS loses the low pressure system with time but the outcome if this develops would be the same - toward the FL peninsula. Now, this huge high is the first I've seen in the GFS runs of late (previous runs have shown some type of progressive east coast trough) so I take it with a huge grain of salt until the GFS model shows some consistency.

[windstorm99]

Convection now firing on the western side of the LLC.

[Cyclenall]

Considering the improved structure, the time of year and where it's at in the Atlantic I say it's a 90-95% chance this is a depression and given the climatological factors not much less chance that it becomes a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane. This is close to a done deal.

My idea of a done deal for a tropical wave becoming a TC looks like this:

[skysummit]

Considering the improved structure, the time of year and where it's at in the Atlantic I say it's a 90-95% chance this is a depression and given the climatological factors not much less chance that it becomes a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane. This is close to a done deal.

My idea of a done deal for a tropical wave becoming a TC looks like this:

Not much difference.....

[Blown Away]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19474.asp

Short term track for 91L very similar. Credit to Gatorcane.

[sunnyday]

Fl doesn't want it, so it can head away from us! Don't storms usually go a different path than those predicted very early on (I hope)?

[skysummit]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19474.asp

Short term track for 91L very similar. Credit to Gatorcane.

...and let's not forget Andrew too:

[cycloneye]

The center is in the more southern area of convection.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

My idea of a done deal for a tropical wave becoming a TC looks like this:

[/quote]

Would you bet against this eventually becoming a depression at this point? What would you place the odds at?

[Anthonyl]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/ATSA_latest.gif

Folks as per the lates surface analysis update this is forcaste to mmove more due west in response to the upper air flow. Sorry I am trying to be realistic amnd cannot see this NW movement that the modles are showing.

[skysummit]

Hey....a comparison of Hurricane #4 of 1947 (in mid to late September), and Andrew in mid to late August......two pics from above postings put together for comparison purposes only...not meant to speculate anything....just comparisons to current model consensus on the track:

[HURAKAN]

[Cookiely]

Thanks Hurakan for the great graphics.

[fci]

This might be the storm JB has been waiting a long time for...

Is he predicting a 970 'Cane for the Carolinas on this one too!

[jdjaguar]

a newbie here..but I'll throw my hat in the ring and say we will have a TD by 11:00

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html