Post-90L: Discussions & Imagery: T1.0/1.0

[wxman57]

Well to my untrained eyes the low that everyone has been tracking seems more diffused
now and hard to make out. My eyes are starting to focus to the NE of the previously mentioned low. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Seems the same to my trained eyes. Just a weak surface trof and a rain-out for me tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

FYI 90L back up on NHC/TPC Floater1...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

I'm not surprised.

[southerngale]

FYI 90L back up on NHC/TPC Floater1...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

I'm not surprised.

It never left. It's been there since 90L first went up.

[HeeBGBz]

FYI 90L back up on NHC/TPC Floater1...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

I'm not surprised.

It never left. It's been there since 90L first went up.

No it hasn't. It was dropped when I looked at it this am. But now he's baaaack.

[Stormcenter]

FYI 90L back up on NHC/TPC Floater1...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

I'm not surprised.

It never left. It's been there since 90L first went up.

Actually they did remove it. I tried to clicking on it this morning and it was some
section of the Carribean.

[Johnny]

It looks like this system is taking on a nice signature.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm, I think what ever was originally East of BRO seems to have wimped out, but on this somewhat finer image resolution visible loop of Texas, there is a hint of a mid-level circulation, South of BPT and East of CRP.

The front has really slowed down. Not a whole lot of rain along it, per HGX WSR-88D, but where there is is tracking to the Southwest, almost parallel to the front. I think the flow around the surface trough in the Gulf is robbing some convergence from that front.

[LaBreeze]

Get the umbrellas ready folks.

[Kludge]

In my "unprofessional" opinion I think the
area to watch is south of Lake Charles, LA.

Good eye... you seem to have noticed the re-location of the formation before the rest of us.

[Stormcenter]

I tell you what for a low pressure non-invest trough it sure "looks" impressive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Stratosphere747]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A PROLONGED THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR OUR SOUTHERN CWA. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
PERSISTS OVER WRN GULF THIS AFTN. SYSTEM APPEARS MORE ORGANIZED
ON SATELLITE...HOWEVER SFC PRESSURES HAVE BEEN ON AN UPWARD TREND IN
THE AREA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH SYSTEM AND
BEARS WATCH. REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO SE TX AS WEAK 500 MB TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE STATE. PWS OF 2.2-2.4 INCHES WILL PUSH NORTH INTO SE TX
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TREK
TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO
MERGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH THE NET EFFECT OF COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS BEHIND THE FRONT (MAINLY NORTHERN COUNTIES) AND
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE GULF DUE TO ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE. PER TWOAT...EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. BY WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE WAVE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH THE
HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE GULF AND COASTAL
COUNTIES. THE WAVE (BARRING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT) IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL BEND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING ITS CONFINEMENT TO THE GULF
AND COASTAL COUNTIES.

[lrak]

In my "unprofessional" opinion I think the
area to watch is south of Lake Charles, LA.

Good eye... you seem to have noticed the re-location of the formation before the rest of us.

I just see a bunch of mess and outflow boundaries up that way. Don't see pressures falling to much up that way?

[Portastorm]

Strat, thanks for posting that ... I was just going to say that if you read the forecast discussions out of Brownsville, Corpus, Houston, and Austin/San Antonio ... you can get four different takes on what will happen with this system! Talk about diverging opinions!

[HURAKAN]

Invest 90L could be back soon as it's back on the floaters: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

The visible loop of the system sure looks impressive: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[ronjon]

Looks like a new center is starting to form at 26.5N-94W.

[HouTXmetro]

Indeed the signature is drastically improving. But we all know that doesn't mean much if everything is in the mid to upper levels and not at the surface.

[Stratosphere747]

Strat, thanks for posting that ... I was just going to say that if you read the forecast discussions out of Brownsville, Corpus, Houston, and Austin/San Antonio ... you can get four different takes on what will happen with this system! Talk about diverging opinions!

Yeah, It's usually good stuff out of all the AFD's. Always been a big fan of the Brownsville and Corpus discos. Houston had always seemed to lag behind, but they have been impressive so far this year. Sometimes I forget about checking the Austin/San Antonio AFD even though they seem to always do a good job on chiming in whenever there is any tropical weather in the Gulf.

Looks to be a decent rainmaker, especially considering the slower movement.

[Stormcenter]

I'm curious to read what the next TWO will have to say about this.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like a new center is starting to form at 26.5N-94W.

I think I see it, but I'm not sure it isn't just mid-level.

Do have a West-Southwest wind South of there.

Looking around, I don't see any data buoys reporting any strong winds.

It will be slow if it does develop...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I will say, the fact that this isn't an invest, and NHC didn't see the need to task a recon flight for tomorrow (which could have been cancelled tomorrow morning if this thing still looked disorganized) tells me NHC thinks if this does become a TC, it wouldn't be much of one. Especially since this is close to Texas, Louisiana and the Gulf oilfields. And they are the paid experts.

Now, if AccuWeather had their own fleet of planes, it could be different.



Gotta leave early, pick up the kids, wife has a parents night at her school...