TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[canegrl04]

I'm doing good Gusty.
Hey guys on the navy/NRL site they said that the pressure for 91L is down to 1009mb. and now the winds are up to 25kts if you didn't know

Umm.I just changed my mind about TD upgrade by 11am.

['CaneFreak]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I still see a dying MLC and an LLC farther to the south. This is not good for development. I think we will have a TD on Thursday or Friday. Give it some time. It looks terrible right now. The centers are again not in unison with one another, therefore we are not going to have rapid development. Gradual development is likely once the LLC and a new MLC begin to work together in unison with one another. This same thing happened with Gabrielle. The MLC was far far to the south and the LLC was much further to the north. It never got stronger than a 50 mph TS. The easterly shear yesterday and today seperated the two centers away from one another; but again, I see a gradually developing TC. Again, give it some time. Environmental conditions are indeed becoming slightly more favorable, but for the time being the system is still at status quo.

[storms in NC]

It seems like TPC products (TAFB, Surface Analysis Chart) wants to take the system into the Eastern Caribbean contrary to what the the models are predicting...

18Z Surface Analysis Chart


TAFB Surface Forecast 72 hours

Just for fun some said it can't go to the EC. If it is set up like the map in now. with the low over Miss. it can go to the east coast. I am not saying in any way that it is just that if it is set like it is with at map.yeas it can. But we all know that it is going to change sunday and the high will be over us for the next 10-12 days

Here have fun
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/kids/movncane.htm

[MiamiensisWx]

91L looks much closer to a depression, IMO. There's some deeper convection forming W of the estimated LLC position, while there appears to be a weak upper-layer anticylone forming over the system (CIMSS 150-300 mbar mean layer shear analysis) - I see some "fanning" on the western side. Shear looks ideal within the immediate environment, while more hostile UA conditions lie to the north and closer to the trough. Based on satellite imagery and close observation (see this shortwave loop), I think I can close off a broad LLC near 11.7N and 41.9W. If current organizational trends continue, I would not be surprised to see the NHC pull the trigger tomorrow, especially if QuikSCAT confirms my thoughts. The next pass could show some stronger sfc winds invof convection. Here's a graphical overlay detailing my analysis:

http://img104.imageshack.us/img104/3462/91lcircsep11071mg6.png

Here is the latest GOES visible image:

http://img102.imageshack.us/img102/9403/invest91lsep11071qr2.jpg

The LLC certainly looks more north and closer to the "ball" of convection, IMO. I would be surprised if we don't see, "...and a tropical depression could form within the next 24 to 48 hours" on the next TWO. 91L could be a depression now, especially when you consider the evidence. I do think the TPC is making the right decision, and an upgrade by tomorrow is a more likely outcome, IMO. What do you think?

[Gustywind]

The TCP seems to disagree with the models NW movement of this system. Take a look at where they place 91L in 72 hours...

It confirms that maybe the HIGH will be strong enough for not allowed a nw track and seems thats Puerto Rico is agree with that by extrapolation ( guess the GFS showing this trend of big HIGH because Puerto Rico are forecast discussion love the GFS lool) But all in all no agreement beetween NHC and the models trends right now.....
PUERTO DISCUSSION wrote that:
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 111916
AFDSJU


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2007

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 41 WEST WILL APPROACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE FRIDAY...THEN ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Interresting discussion...system churning near the Leewards Islands according to Puerto Rico AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.....

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 111916
AFDSJU


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2007

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 41 WEST WILL APPROACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE FRIDAY...THEN ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Interresting discussion...system churning near the Leewards Islands according to Puerto Rico AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.....

[gatorcane]

This invest may very well be the biggest threat to the U.S that we have had this season...yet unlike earlier this season I see far less people talking about this invest.....

Which makes me think that there have been so many "almosts" and "poofs" that people may be thinking that this is the year the U.S escapes again..

and just because it is mid September doesn't mean those big Highs cannot prevent recurving....I can name many examples otherwise.

[Cyclenall]

Would you bet against this eventually becoming a depression at this point? What would you place the odds at?

No, it should become a TD within time. I already placed my odds in a earlier post.

[storms in NC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
503 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SAG A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. THAT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

['CaneFreak]

"The LLC certainly looks more north and closer to the "ball" of convection, IMO. I would be surprised if we don't see, "...and a tropical depression could form within the next 24 to 48 hours" on the next TWO. 91L could be a depression now, especially when you consider the evidence. I do think the TPC is making the right decision, and an upgrade by tomorrow is a more likely outcome, IMO. What do you think?"

The problem with your statement there is that the center you are seeing to the north is the midlevel circulation. Yes, the NHC is making the right decision. If you would look at some of the earlier visible shots you will see there is a midlevel center to the north and the LLC is much further to the south. The LLC is the center that the models are initializing. Go to NRL and check to see where the center is located. Is it to the north or further south?

['CaneFreak]

Thanks for replying, right!!!! Its further south. So, if we can get the mid-level center to slow the heck down (its racing to the west due to easterly shear) and allow the LLC to catch up with it...we will have an organized TC by Thursday at the earliest. Better yet, let the MLC die!!! MLC may try to throw some westerly mid-level shear in there as the LLC tries to play catch up. Hang in there folks, because by Thursday you will have your system.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



DMAX is in order for 91L. We should see what the morning brings. Nevertheless, unlike Dean and Felix, 91L has a lot of time before reaching the Lesser Antilles.

[Extremecane]

impressive -80 cloud tops very near center, looks like it will realy starting to crank up soon:

[miamicanes177]

This invest may very well be the biggest threat to the U.S that we have had this season...yet unlike earlier this season I see far less people talking about this invest.....

Which makes me think that there have been so many "almosts" and "poofs" that people may be thinking that this is the year the U.S escapes again..

Many feel the USA will be protected from any landfalling hurricanes in 2007 just as they were in 2006. Not since Wilma of 2005 have Americans been smashed by a hurricane. This amazing streak of luck is what has caused people to feel protected by an invisible shield that does not exist. I hope we can miraculously escape another year too but I do not think we will. History tells us that this trend will come to a screeching halt and you are correct by staying alert.

[HURAKAN]

11/1745 UTC 11.7N 41.1W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

[tropicsPR]

Latest:



DMAX is in order for 91L. We should see what the morning brings. Nevertheless, unlike Dean and Felix, 91L has a lot of time before reaching the Lesser Antilles.

Saludos HURAKAN: ¿ Crees tú que el Invest 91L representa alguna amenaza para las islas de Sotavento y Puerto Rico ? ¿ Cuál es tu opinión ?

Hi HURAKAN: Do you think that Invest 91L represents a threat to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico ? What is your opinion?

[Sanibel]

91L looks much closer to a depression, IMO.

Agreed. This is now well into formation.

I'm not certain where the surface center is (like Felix) but it obviously has gone into cyclogenesis and is now on the move.

[deltadog03]

Remember systems have had a hard time getting going until they have hit around 55 or 60W. I expect the same with this one too

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[cycloneye]

Big burst going on very near or over the LLC.I think this is the start of the proccess of organization to TD status.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This invest may very well be the biggest threat to the U.S that we have had this season...yet unlike earlier this season I see far less people talking about this invest.....

Which makes me think that there have been so many "almosts" and "poofs" that people may be thinking that this is the year the U.S escapes again..

and just because it is mid September doesn't mean those big Highs cannot prevent recurving....I can name many examples otherwise.

It is about to start getting too late in the year, IMHO, for long tracked major systems to threaten the Western GOMEX, as Autumn is well underway with a cold front almost to Houston (although maybe not too late for nuisance systems of non-tropical origin that try to spin up just before moving in, obviously), but everywhere from Eastern Louisiana to Maine is in the potential path, as well as the islands.


The Cat 3 1938 storm hit New York State on September 21, IIRC, and was perhaps a Cat 5 a couple of days before as it passed near the Bahamas. If you add about a week's time to now, when this should be getting close, well, not saying this is New York/New England's year, but then again maybe it is...