Post-90L: Discussions & Imagery: T1.0/1.0
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- wxman57
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Re: Post-90L: Discussions, & Imagery
I notice the mid and lower TX coastal buoys pressure dropped 1.5 to 2mb in the past 3 hours and winds are up about 10 kts. Could be a low center forming near 27.3N/95W, closest to the Matagorda Bay buoy. GFS moves it to CRP tomorrow and inland along the coast to Houston by Friday, dumping LOTS of rain all along the TX coast.
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- southerngale
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Re: Post-90L: Discussions, & Imagery
HeeBGBz wrote:southerngale wrote:
It never left. It's been there since 90L first went up.
No it hasn't. It was dropped when I looked at it this am. But now he's baaaack.
Ah, ok. It was up all day yesterday and last night, even after 90L was dropped from NRL. And when I refreshed the image this morning, it was still there, so that's why I thought it had never been dropped. It's still been there most of the time.
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Re: Post-90L: Discussions, & Imagery
The "crazy uncle" does sort of a pin ball thing with the low between Brownsville and Louisiana http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007091112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation. I wonder if it is going to spend more time over the gulf than is thought now.
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>>The "crazy uncle" does sort of a pin ball thing with the low between Brownsville and Louisiana
LMAO Crazy Uncle CMC. The front probably will back off if the trough splits or if the high kind of sets up a boundary just north of here. So it's not way WAY out there. But it could be interesting for tomorrow and Thursday.
Steve
LMAO Crazy Uncle CMC. The front probably will back off if the trough splits or if the high kind of sets up a boundary just north of here. So it's not way WAY out there. But it could be interesting for tomorrow and Thursday.
Steve
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Re: Post-90L: Discussions, & Imagery
Well not too much info here. The key statement to note is "The next day or two".
They obviously don't expect this to move much at all.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
They obviously don't expect this to move much at all.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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IMHO, I think this system has a shot at development over the next 1-3 days as it hugs the coast. However, I do not expect anything strong out of this, with may be a TD or TS being the worst case scenario. Either way though...developed or not...someone is going to be getting a heck of a lot of un-needed rain out of this and the flooding potential is definitely there!
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Re: Post-90L: Discussions, & Imagery
Movement is the key. As we have noted throughout the day, the overall broad area is slowly shifting to the W/WNW. We seem to also not different areas of possible, more defined LLC's. What we don't need is the system actually stalling out, which could be happening.
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- lrak
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Re: Post-90L: Discussions, & Imagery
42002 buoy posted above says it all! Finally someone found real West wind. Probably just an outflow from a thunderstorm.
Mr. Waxman57, so now you think CC TX will get just a little swell out of this?

Mr. Waxman57, so now you think CC TX will get just a little swell out of this?
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- Extremeweatherguy
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In case anyone is wondering, here are JB's 4pm thoughts...
-He thinks this system will be near Corpus Christi early Thursday and then move NNE/NE after that...possibly becoming a threat to the upper TX coast or LA.
-He believes that, at the minimum, tropical storm conditions will be felt over the Texas coastal waters..regardless of whether or not the system is actually named.
-He thinks this system will be near Corpus Christi early Thursday and then move NNE/NE after that...possibly becoming a threat to the upper TX coast or LA.
-He believes that, at the minimum, tropical storm conditions will be felt over the Texas coastal waters..regardless of whether or not the system is actually named.
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:In case anyone is wondering, here are JB's 4pm thoughts...
-He thinks this system will be near Corpus Christi early Thursday and then move NNE/NE after that...possibly becoming a threat to the upper TX coast or LA.
-He believes that, at the minimum, tropical storm conditions will be felt over the Texas coastal waters..regardless of whether or not the system is actually named.
That is a lot of time this will spend over water if what he says comes to pass.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Re:
Yeah, it would be, but we are already seeing this system start to slow significantly, so I guess it is possible that he is right. We will just have to see what happens.Stormcenter wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:In case anyone is wondering, here are JB's 4pm thoughts...
-He thinks this system will be near Corpus Christi early Thursday and then move NNE/NE after that...possibly becoming a threat to the upper TX coast or LA.
-He believes that, at the minimum, tropical storm conditions will be felt over the Texas coastal waters..regardless of whether or not the system is actually named.
That is a lot of time this will spend over water if what he says comes to pass.
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- wxman57
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Re: Post-90L: Discussions, & Imagery
Here's a 21Z plot and satellite. I put in the leading edge of the cold front and drew in the trof axis. Appears to be a 1010mb low near 27N/94W-95W. Mid level center closer to 94W, LLC closer to 95W. Winds along coast only 15 kts. Wave heights only 3-5 feet for you surfers on the lower-mid TX coast. Nothing much to speak of wave-wise. Still looks like a heavy rain event for TX from north of Corpus to Houston, maybe 5-10 inches in many areas and more in some areas. Just what we need.
Could well be called a TD/TS before it finally moves inland. Not today, though. And if it moves into the coast tomorrow then NHC won't name it. Regardless, it's the rain that's the threat, not winds.

Could well be called a TD/TS before it finally moves inland. Not today, though. And if it moves into the coast tomorrow then NHC won't name it. Regardless, it's the rain that's the threat, not winds.

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- jasons2k
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RE: the latest TWO - that's yet another 'notch' up on our in-house scale.
It seems like in the last two years I've lived in Houston, we've had an enormous amount of these near-shore invests pop-up along the lower/mid TX coast. One of these days, one of them will indeed spin-up a system before (not during) it makes landfall. Will former 90L be the one?? Time will tell....
It seems like in the last two years I've lived in Houston, we've had an enormous amount of these near-shore invests pop-up along the lower/mid TX coast. One of these days, one of them will indeed spin-up a system before (not during) it makes landfall. Will former 90L be the one?? Time will tell....
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Re: Post-90L: Discussions, & Imagery
That sure is further north then this morning's locations.
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- wxman57
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Re:
jschlitz wrote:RE: the latest TWO - that's yet another 'notch' up on our in-house scale.
It seems like in the last two years I've lived in Houston, we've had an enormous amount of these near-shore invests pop-up along the lower/mid TX coast. One of these days, one of them will indeed spin-up a system before (not during) it makes landfall. Will former 90L be the one?? Time will tell....
Just think back to June of 2001 - Alison. It spun up near the same area about 12 hours before it moved inland. No wind to speak of, but it did rain a couple of inches.

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- HouTXmetro
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Post-90L: Discussions, & Imagery
It is not expected to. Instead, the front may actually help slow the system down and basically allow it to meander just off the coast. It could then go ahead and quietly (except for lots of heavy rain) slip inland..or it may turn more N or NE as JB predicts. Time will tell. The longer it stays over the water though, the greater the chance is that this will get a name.lrak wrote:Will the front push it futher back out to sea tonight?
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