TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

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Derek Ortt

#701 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:33 pm

however, the best defiend circ on nighttime visible is the MLC

Had to look very hard, but am able to see inflow being focused near 12N and 43W. Could have a new center start to form there. System is moving nearly due west, south of the guidance projections
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Re: Re:

#702 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Looks really good. There's is no question this system is will be a named storm in the next 48-72 hrs if it continues this trend.


Or sooner?


I like being conservative!
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Re:

#703 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:34 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:however, the best defiend circ on nighttime visible is the MLC

Had to look very hard, but am able to see inflow being focused near 12N and 43W. Could have a new center start to form there. System is moving nearly due west, south of the guidance projections


I agree...this will have serious implications on the forecast track of this system over the next several days.
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Re: Re:

#704 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:35 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
gatorcane wrote:This invest may very well be the biggest threat to the U.S that we have had this season...yet unlike earlier this season I see far less people talking about this invest.....

Which makes me think that there have been so many "almosts" and "poofs" that people may be thinking that this is the year the U.S escapes again..

and just because it is mid September doesn't mean those big Highs cannot prevent recurving....I can name many examples otherwise.



It is about to start getting too late in the year, IMHO, for long tracked major systems to threaten the Western GOMEX, as Autumn is well underway with a cold front almost to Houston (although maybe not too late for nuisance systems of non-tropical origin that try to spin up just before moving in, obviously), but everywhere from Eastern Louisiana to Maine is in the potential path, as well as the islands.


The Cat 3 1938 storm hit New York State on September 21, IIRC, and was perhaps a Cat 5 a couple of days before as it passed near the Bahamas. If you add about a week's time to now, when this should be getting close, well, not saying this is New York/New England's year, but then again maybe it is...


Lili hit south central LA on October 3, 2002 and it was a CV storm that passed through the caribbean. I believe it was the furthest west a category 3 had made it in the gulf that late in the season or something like that. I pretty much use that as a benchmark for this area although we're still vulnerable from gulf spin-ups through most of October in IMO. It's looking better but we're not out of the woods by any means in this area.
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#705 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:35 pm

The other tropical wave at 32W also looks to be getting its act together. Maybe the CMC wasn't out to lunch this afternoon?
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Re:

#706 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:36 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:however, the best defiend circ on nighttime visible is the MLC

Had to look very hard, but am able to see inflow being focused near 12N and 43W. Could have a new center start to form there. System is moving nearly due west, south of the guidance projections



Derek, I think your initial thoughts were east carib bound. Has that changed any since the latest globals and tropical models ran......

for me I am in the south camp just for the shear(no pun intended) fact that we saw the same biased during Dean / Felix,....ie wanting to recurve sooner rather than later....
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#707 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:38 pm

Most models from the begining have not had this into the caribbean....And if this does become aTD the national hurricane center will likely base the track on the GFS/GFDL models.

All models indicate a WNW-NW possibly starting tommorow.Iam going with that for now.

Could the models be wrong and once we establish a well defined LLC everything chances yes it can.
Last edited by windstorm99 on Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#708 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:39 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

THU-MON...SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES DEEP EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AND REMAINS
OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE NATIONS MID AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS
LATEST GFS RUN LOOKS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON BRINGING STRONG SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY WEAKENING THEM AND HAVING THEM
SLIDE THEM OFF TO THE EAST AND OVERTOP A 590 PLUS DECAMETER (DM)
RIDGE AT 500MB. THIS STRONG A RIDGE APPEARS TO HAVE THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TWO (06Z/00Z) GFS RUNS. LATEST
1000-500MB MOISTURE RIBBON IS MUCH NARROWER AND EVEN SPLITS IN TWO
AS IT MOVES DOWN THE PENINSULA SUNDAY.

TUE...DEEP LAYER RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING AREA/S WEATHER AS FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF [b]A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAHAMA ISLAND/HISPANOLA.


Extended forecast...
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#709 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:40 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
gatorcane wrote:This invest may very well be the biggest threat to the U.S that we have had this season...yet unlike earlier this season I see far less people talking about this invest.....

Which makes me think that there have been so many "almosts" and "poofs" that people may be thinking that this is the year the U.S escapes again..

and just because it is mid September doesn't mean those big Highs cannot prevent recurving....I can name many examples otherwise.



It is about to start getting too late in the year, IMHO, for long tracked major systems to threaten the Western GOMEX, as Autumn is well underway with a cold front almost to Houston (although maybe not too late for nuisance systems of non-tropical origin that try to spin up just before moving in, obviously), but everywhere from Eastern Louisiana to Maine is in the potential path, as well as the islands.


The Cat 3 1938 storm hit New York State on September 21, IIRC, and was perhaps a Cat 5 a couple of days before as it passed near the Bahamas. If you add about a week's time to now, when this should be getting close, well, not saying this is New York/New England's year, but then again maybe it is...


Lili hit south central LA on October 3, 2002 and it was a CV storm that passed through the caribbean. I believe it was the furthest west a category 3 had made it in the gulf that late in the season or something like that. I pretty much use that as a benchmark for this area although we're still vulnerable from gulf spin-ups through most of October in IMO. It's looking better but we're not out of the woods by any means in this area.




I remember Lily...nasty looking right up until landfall....entrained some dry air and knocked her down some. Lets not forget Ed that Rita was the Sept 26 2005 though not a typical long tracker it did come in through the Bahamas / FL outside the carib......
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#710 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:43 pm

windstorm99 wrote:Most models from the begining have not had this into the caribbean....And if this does become aTD the national hurricane center will likely base the track on the GFS/GFDL models.




yeah they do hug these models pretty well... :lol: I know what the guidance is telling me but again I thought I knew what the models were telling me during Dean.....thus my point....Once the we get a TD, I will be looking at the EURO for track. Its been good this year.....
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#711 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:45 pm

Check out the latest GFDL track at the models thread.Has a bee-line to the Northern Leewards.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#712 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:51 pm

Well, Rita did knock down mi suegra's avocado tree, less than a mile from my house, and did kill electricity for almost a day at my house, and did a real number on the BPT area up into Jasper County, well inland, the center did landfall just across the river in Louisiana.


Mi suegro told me with Isidore, when it was originally pointed (per NHC cone) toward HOU area, and again with Rita, that since we'd already had a cold front, they'd turn. And he was right.


Of course, even in October, the one exception, minimal Cat 1 Jerry in 1989 at GLS, but that was the only one in 60 years.
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#713 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:55 pm

ROCK wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:Most models from the begining have not had this into the caribbean....And if this does become aTD the national hurricane center will likely base the track on the GFS/GFDL models.




yeah they do hug these models pretty well... :lol: I know what the guidance is telling me but again I thought I knew what the models were telling me during Dean.....thus my point....Once the we get a TD, I will be looking at the EURO for track. Its been good this year.....


This is quite scary to watch right now for flordia and the east coast it is durning the Mininum right now and it looks pretty healthy, i think we will see a TD in the next 24hrs. 8-)
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#714 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:55 pm

Speaking of closely following the model consensus, especially the GFS and GFS based models, the one guy, that at least in his discussions talked about the synoptics and sometimes disagreed with them, Stacy Stewart, is in Iraq this year.


I always thought his discussions were best, just for being informative. Franklin can get pretty detailed as well. Just my impression.
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#715 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Check out the latest GFDL track at the models thread.Has a bee-line to the Northern Leewards.



yes it does and that track does not bold well for PR if it verifys.....Could be a formiable system at that point. Just by memory the BAMMS were southern outlier a few days ago with the GFS / GFDL the northern (missing the Northern islands)......late last night the BAMMS came in-line with the GFS/ GFDL. Now it seems to me that the westward jog is right in line with the Northern islands....
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#716 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2007 6:57 pm

Image
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#717 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Sep 11, 2007 7:00 pm

805pm NHC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 41W-44W...
AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 43W-46W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH.
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#718 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 11, 2007 7:00 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Well, Rita did knock down mi suegra's avocado tree, less than a mile from my house, and did kill electricity for almost a day at my house, and did a real number on the BPT area up into Jasper County, well inland, the center did landfall just across the river in Louisiana.


Mi suegro told me with Isidore, when it was originally pointed (per NHC cone) toward HOU area, and again with Rita, that since we'd already had a cold front, they'd turn. And he was right.


Of course, even in October, the one exception, minimal Cat 1 Jerry in 1989 at GLS, but that was the only one in 60 years.



Jerry was about the size of Galveston Bay in 89 :lol: But I see your point....however Rita was turning due to the shifting of the high (east) as she progressed west....prior front or no front this was the synopic set-up at the time. If Rita would have track another 6 hours westward, she would have been right into Freeport......
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Re: Invest 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions & Images

#719 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Sep 11, 2007 7:06 pm

11/2345 UTC 12.1N 41.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

Increased to 1.5
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Re: 91L,East of Windwards: Discussions=T Numbers 1.5/1.5

#720 Postby DrewFL » Tue Sep 11, 2007 7:20 pm

TAFB surface forecasts barely move the system in 72 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml


Or they're washing it out.
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