TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[storms in NC]

Isn't it a general rule that a system that tracks east of the Islands is bound for Florida or the GOM?

No, that is not a general rule.

Systems have tracked east of the islands and struck FL/GOM/East Coast and also have became fish.

True It really can go any where at this time. To far out wait till it comes a TD and a little closer say around 60 we should have a good idea.

[HURAKAN]

[jdjaguar]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

at this rate it may be a CAT 1 before NHC even classifies it as a TD.

check out the barred spirals forming

[RL3AO]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

at this rate it may be a CAT 1 before NHC even classifies it as a TD.

Sarcasm?

[jaxfladude]

From what I can tell, the center has relocated directly under the convection and we have a TD if not a TS already.

(not sure why my earlier reply of agreement to canegirl's post was deleted.)

NHC may pronounce at 8AM TD....11AM TS ...but its there now imo.

and jax dude..is this "our" year? lets hope not..its been 43 years since Dora...

Maybe any one of this systems (Cat 1 to 5 Hurricanes that is) could be the next one after Dora (XX years since)
I fear the surprising left turn from a nasty "FISH" Cane the most..but anything could happen, a backdoor Cane (from the Big Bend area of the FLA Coast) and going over the greater Jax metro area and out to sea....that kind of track with the Cane being a strong Cat. 2 or higher(cooler Sea Surface Temps near the Big Bend coast normally would limit the Cat to at most a borderline Cat. 3/4) with the rightside "Quad" going over the Jax metro area first
But I am not a expert or an amateur at all...

[jhamps10]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

at this rate it may be a CAT 1 before NHC even classifies it as a TD.

Sarcasm?

I hope so anyway. although it does look real good, it aien't cat 1 good.

[jdjaguar]

From what I can tell, the center has relocated directly under the convection and we have a TD if not a TS already.

(not sure why my earlier reply of agreement to canegirl's post was deleted.)

NHC may pronounce at 8AM TD....11AM TS ...but its there now imo.

and jax dude..is this "our" year? lets hope not..its been 43 years since Dora...

Maybe any one of this systems (Cat 1 to 5 Hurricanes that is) could be the next one after Dora (XX years since)
I fear the surprising left turn from a nasty "FISH" Cane the most..but anything could happen, a backdoor Cane (from the Big Bend area of the FLA Coast) and going over the greater Jax metro area and out to sea....that kind of track with the Cane being a strong Cat. 2 or higher(cooler Sea Surface Temps near the Big Bend coast normally would limit the Cat to at most a borderline Cat. 3/4) with the rightside "Quad" going over the Jax metro area first
But I am not a expert or an amateur at all...

I've lived in Jax for a long time..and you're right..the backdoor canes have been the ones to hit...(though big bad Floyd gave us a scare)...for some reason canes don't make that left hook up here..but tend to hug the coast and hit Savannah or Charleston.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

at this rate it may be a CAT 1 before NHC even classifies it as a TD.

check out the barred spirals forming

Looks good would not blow me away if it exploded. The shear and the enviroment is starting to look quite good. One storm that went from a distrabance to boom was Isabel in this area.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

at this rate it may be a CAT 1 before NHC even classifies it as a TD.

Sarcasm?

The NHC will not upgrade until they have confirmation that a LLC is present. Remember pre-Erin? Excellent satellite presentation, nothing at the surface. Moreover, 91L is in the middle of nowhere. It will be the same upgrading it now than waiting for visible confirmation.

Remember, bashing the NHC in any way will not be allowed. Gabrielle proved us that they are the experts and they really know what they are doing.

[Gustywind]

Nice looking wave, convection is more concentrated, that's the early stages of a feature acquiring more cyclonic activity steadily, bursting nicely tonight... note the strong convection on the southern side...that's remember this huge part of Dean, Felix...
Checkthis :http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/TAG/Tagant.jpg
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[jaxfladude]

From what I can tell, the center has relocated directly under the convection and we have a TD if not a TS already.

(not sure why my earlier reply of agreement to canegirl's post was deleted.)

NHC may pronounce at 8AM TD....11AM TS ...but its there now imo.

and jax dude..is this "our" year? lets hope not..its been 43 years since Dora...

Maybe any one of this systems (Cat 1 to 5 Hurricanes that is) could be the next one after Dora (XX years since)
I fear the surprising left turn from a nasty "FISH" Cane the most..but anything could happen, a backdoor Cane (from the Big Bend area of the FLA Coast) and going over the greater Jax metro area and out to sea....that kind of track with the Cane being a strong Cat. 2 or higher(cooler Sea Surface Temps near the Big Bend coast normally would limit the Cat to at most a borderline Cat. 3/4) with the rightside "Quad" going over the Jax metro area first
But I am not a expert or an amateur at all...

I've lived in Jax for a long time..and you're right..the backdoor canes have been the ones to hit...(though big bad Floyd gave us a scare)...for some reason canes don't make that left hook up here..but tend to hug the coast and hit Savannah or Charleston.

Ditto, now back to Invest 91L..
or is the

[jdjaguar]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

at this rate it may be a CAT 1 before NHC even classifies it as a TD.

Sarcasm?

I hope so anyway. although it does look real good, it aien't cat 1 good.

not bashing the NHC..I have the upmost respect for them

just commenting on the rapidity in which storms have developed this year.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

at this rate it may be a CAT 1 before NHC even classifies it as a TD.

Sarcasm?

The NHC will not upgrade until they have confirmation that a LLC is present. Remember pre-Erin? Excellent satellite presentation, nothing at the surface. Moreover, 91L is in the middle of nowhere. It will be the same upgrading it now than waiting for visible confirmation.

Remember, bashing the NHC in any way will not be allowed. Gabrielle proved us that they are the experts and they really know what they are doing.

This is a different kind of system from Gabrielle was. Gabrielle was a subtropical system with a broad LLC....With the fact that it formed off the surface and moved to the surface as it became more tropical and also it had a broad LLC. It took time to form a more well defined LLC.

On the other hand this is a tropical distrabance/wave like system. The LLC normally forms on the northern part of the "wave" and starts closing off. If there is a west wind with this, in which case there appears to be at a low level. There is a high chance that this is in fact closed off. With the convection firing up big time it is helping to form lower level convergents, and which allows the LLC to strengthen. That allows a stronger wind field=stronger system.

I would say this is a depression. Not a hundred percent sure. I also disagree and it is something I don't like, that is that system out here don't get upgraded like the Gulf systems. I feel that all systems should be treated fairly.

[RL3AO]

I would say this is a depression. Not a hundred percent sure. I also disagree and it is something I don't like, that is that system out here don't get upgraded like the Gulf systems. I feel that all systems should be treated fairly.

I agree, but in the NHC's defense they have more tools when an area like this is in the GOM/W Caribbean. They have more buoys, ships and they have recon. Plus land stations to show wind direction.

[Blown Away]

Models show NW movement now and the satellite indicates a system moving just N of due W. Models seem to be trending E, if 91L reaches 20N before 60W, landfall odds for the Islands and FL become very low. 91L seems to be on a track to the fishes or Bermuda.

[HURAKAN]

Matt, mentioning Gabrielle and the NHC I meant to say that they knew exactly when to upgrade it and not before.

Like I said, it's very far from land, it's at night. Anyone is a hurry to wait 6 to 12 hrs?

[cycloneye]

[MGC]

It has the look but is there a west wind at the surface?....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Latest: