TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[jaxfladude]

Models show NW movement now and the satellite indicates a system moving just N of due W. Models seem to be trending E, if 91L reaches 20N before 60W, landfall odds for the Islands and FL become very low. 91L seems to be on a track to the fishes or Bermuda.

Fine by me, FISH is the best outcome... 2nd best a close and little effect call for Bermuda.

[CrazyC83]

Where it is now, would a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch or Warning be needed anywhere if it was declared a tropical cyclone?

[RL3AO]

Where it is now, would a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch or Warning be needed anywhere if it was declared a tropical cyclone?

Doesn't look like they would be needed until Thursday maybe.

[CrazyC83]

QuikSCAT now shows the system: Not quite a closed circulation, at least from my view. It hasn't fully wrapped around yet (missing S winds). http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

[cycloneye]

A real closeup view.

[Normandy]

QuikSCAT now shows the system: Not quite a closed circulation, at least from my view. It hasn't fully wrapped around yet (missing S winds). http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

That does not show a closed circulation at all.
No TD.

[windstorm99]

Hi-resolution descending pass shows a possible TD....

I see winds anywere from 30-35 and a few 45.

[HURAKAN]

QuikSCAT now shows the system: Not quite a closed circulation, at least from my view. It hasn't fully wrapped around yet (missing S winds). http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

That does not show a closed circulation at all.
No TD.

There is a saying, "of what you hear don't believe anything, of what you see believe half of it." Really good for this situation.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You have got to be kidding me? What do you mean that quickscat does not show a closed LLC...It is closed fully, because it is not a perfect circle does not mean it is not closed.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

[Ed Mahmoud]

After staring intently at satellite floater, there probably is a closed low, but no real way to be certain, especially at night, and also looks like heaviest convection is somewhat displaced West of the center, implying less than ideal shearing from the East.


But it looks, in my amateur opinion, like it is probably a depression, maybe even a minimal storm. No need for NHC to rush classifying it, days from any land, and the visible will confirm.

12Z GFS means 8 to 10 days, almost looks like it shows the 'banana ridge', of Westward beneath the ridge, a definite EC threat.



For that matter, the 240 hour Euro 500 mb forecast looks like that too, although the surface reflection isn't impressive.




Too early to say anything, but a fish storm is far from certain.

[CrazyC83]

You have got to be kidding me? What do you mean that quickscat does not show a closed LLC...It is closed fully, because it is not a perfect circle does not mean it is not closed.

It looks to be about 3/4 closed. But I cannot find any S winds which would close it off...

Hence I don't think it is a TD right now. But it is getting there...

[jaxfladude]

Yep, wait until WED up to 11pm even or later until a closed LLC is proven by QS...

[Ed Mahmoud]

You have got to be kidding me? What do you mean that quickscat does not show a closed LLC...It is closed fully, because it is not a perfect circle does not mean it is not closed.

It looks to be about 3/4 closed. But I cannot find any S winds which would close it off...

Hence I don't think it is a TD right now. But it is getting there...

That'd be the side closest to the disturbed area to the East of it, might be that 91L is a low on the end of a trough running to the other disturbance, if that makes any sense.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC has southwestly winds,,,meaning its a little elongated on that side. But still a LLC.

[Derek Ortt]

no it isn't closed matt


There are no northerly winds; thus, no closed LLC and no TD

The convective pattern is that of a burst... this is often the first step in becoming a TD, but it may have 24 more hours before frming that well-defined LLC

[Coredesat]

Yep, wait until WED up to 11pm even or later until a closed LLC is proven by QS...

Closed centers don't get "proven" by QS, as QS can be wrong. Only direct observations (ship, recon, buoy) can conclusively prove the existence of a closed circulation.

[wxman57]

Nice blow-up in convection, let's see if it persists another 12-24 hours. If so, then we could have a TD/TS. Quite impressive tonight, though. Time for bed.

[cycloneye]

The anticipation builds before the 10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook is released,to see how NHC is agressive in the wording by the events of tonight.

[jaxfladude]

Yep, wait until WED up to 11pm even or later until a closed LLC is proven by QS...

Closed centers don't get "proven" by QS, as QS can be wrong. Only direct observations (ship, recon, buoy) can conclusively prove the existence of a closed circulation.

I stand corrected
Homer Simpson's annoyed grunt "D'oh!"

[RL3AO]

We are currently at yellow on the TWO alert scale. Waiting for the 1030 TWO.