Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[srainhoutx]

ABNT20 KNHC 120201
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0201.shtml

[Stratosphere747]

Hmm...

I was just complementing the Austin/San Antonio AFD's earlier today. That latest statement is just a bit too bullish. What is more surprising is that it is from this evening.

Looks can be deceiving based on what you are seeing right now so I wouldn't call it too "bullish" just yet. Let's see what happens later tonight and tomorrow. IMO

Saying - "A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM TONIGHT" under its current conditions and the time it was put out, is too "bullish." This afternoon I could see making a statement such as this, but not at 9CST. As mentioned this particular AFD has always been a good one, but this specific statement was clearly not going to pan out tonight.

Still a few more days with its slow pace, so it still has a chance.

[njweather]

Damn... Here in Houston, there's already plenty of flooding from weeks of near-daily thunderstorms.

Does anyone know when this system is projected to hit the Houston area?

[srainhoutx]

AFD from HGX this evening..


FXUS64 KHGX 120129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
829 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO QUIET DOWN AND EXPECT THIS DOWNWARD TREND
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AT 00Z...
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR BAY CITY.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA TO JASPER TO
CONROE TO COLUMBUS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND DRIER SFC DEW POINTS
ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THINGS
ARE MORE MURKY FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS COUPLED WITH
SEVERAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL YIELD A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE "TRAINING EFFECT" HAS ENDED
AND PRECIP WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. WILL REMOVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO CHANCE. PARTS OF HARRIS AND FT BEND
COUNTIES RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT...WHILE
PARTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY RECEIVED BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS LIKELY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID
TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY WEAK
AND WATER TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT
ALL IF THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
DIRECTED TOWARD SE TX. THU/FRI LOOK VERY WET AS UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FOCI.
WILL ISSUE A NEW SET OF ZONES TO CLEAN UP EVENING WORDING. 43

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

[Stormcenter]

Looking at this latest loop in looks like convection "may" be starting
to build up again. Also, note the nice signature circulation when you speed
up the loop.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[vaffie]

Looking at this latest loop in looks like convection "may" be starting
to build up again. Also, note the nice signature circulation when you speed
up the loop.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Agree. It looks like it's preparing for a large explosion of convection starting around 11 pm to midnight--just about when the eclipse takes place. Will be very interesting to see it in the morning. Could get very interesting tomorrow.

[mattpetre]

Yes, I believe this is the first time we can see the mid to low level circulation without any convection above it (personally I think it's been there for almost two days now). If the convection does explode tonight this could even make TS strength before landfall around Victoria, just my guess.... see you in the morning 90L and everyone else.

[flwxwatcher]

Yes, looking at this loop it does appear there is a nice circulation there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Starburst]

This confirms our thoughts of stationary

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.UPDATE...AT 03Z THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS CLEARED THE CWA AND
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARED
TO BE INVOF OF THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GLFMEX REMAINS STATIONARY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REDUCE POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...THEN BROUGHT THE CHANCE POPS AS FAR WEST AS THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN TROPOSPHERIC FORCING INCREASES ONCE
AGAIN.

$$

BB/85...UPDATE
GW/86...AVIATION

[Ptarmigan]

Whatever happens to 90L, it will give Texas a lot of rain, coupled with a cool front. I expect another heavy rain event.

[Ptarmigan]

How much rain can we expect in Houston?

Looks like the curve back east is not as certain now.

I heard in the neighbor of 1 to 3 inches, possibly up to 8 inches in some areas.

[Stormcenter]

Whatever happens to 90L, it will give Texas a lot of rain, coupled with a cool front. I expect another heavy rain event.

Didn't JB say 90L would possibly stall and then eventually move toward the NNE/NE?

[fci]

Can y'all send 90L here to South FLorida???
We sure could use several inches of rain.
We REALLY need it before the rainy season ends and we are all told to cut off our sprinkler systems entirely and start sharing flushes!!!

[Ptarmigan]

Didn't JB say 90L would possibly stall and then eventually move toward the NNE/NE?

From what I read from NWS San Antonio
THE NHC IS MONITORING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM TONIGHT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME OF OUR SE COUNTIES MAY BE AFFECTED...BUT THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL RUN FROM NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI...NE TO NORTH OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST.

I know 90L has been stationary.

[Ptarmigan]

Can y'all send 90L here to South FLorida???
We sure could use several inches of rain.
We REALLY need it before the rainy season ends and we are all told to cut off our sprinkler systems entirely and start sharing flushes!!!

Please take all of 90L to your region. You need it, not us.

[gatorcane]

Hey FCI we still have through November until the hurricane season ends for us....patience

a wave from ex92L will be moving through late this week. Then we have to start watching 91L to see how and if it will affect us....

[HurricaneRobert]

I think 91L will be Humberto and this will be nothing. Since 1990 every storm that begins with 'I' has been a hurricane.

[mattpetre]

I think 91L will be Humberto and this will be nothing. Since 1990 every storm that begins with 'I' has been a hurricane.

I'm a bit confused, how does the "I" part relate to the Humberto portion of this statement? Or just to separate observations/thoughts? I tend to agree that 90L probably won't get a name, although it like 99L was a great invest and fun to watch for us on the gulf coast... here's to hoping for no massive flooding...

[mattpetre]

Just curious... Karl... or anyone else near Corpus or Victoria getting any extra wind from this? Houston has picked up to about 15 with gust of 20 to 25, but I'm not sure if it's the front or seabreeze from the low.... would love to hear reports tomorrow on conditions.

[Stratosphere747]

There appears to be a decent looking circulation to the east of Corpus with a bit of convection firing up. Does look to be little or no movement.