Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[vaffie]

In the last half an hour, the convection has beautifully consolidated over the center, so that there is now one symmetrical blob over it. Rapid intensification may begin to take place now. It only has about 12-24 hours, but as we've seen, a lot can happen in that amount of time.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Stormcenter]

At the moment 90L is not moving much at all if anything maybe a drift south which
of course would not be good in the long term. The NHC now has it moving NNW which is a big change from west yesterday and a further north location.

[Stormcenter]

In the last half an hour, the convection has beautifully consolidated over the center, so that there is now one symmetrical blob over it. Rapid intensification may begin to take place now. It only has about 12-24 hours, but as we've seen, a lot can happen in that amount of time.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

12-24 hours?

It's not moving much if any right now so it "could" be longer.

[skysummit]

I didn't see this posted yet....an MD from the SPC, but since it's tropically related:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS SE TX...EXTREME SWRN LA.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 121151Z - 121445Z

CLUSTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND TO
MOVE ONSHORE PRIMARILY FROM MATAGORDA COUNTY TX THROUGH CAMERON
PARISH LA THROUGH MIDMORNING. RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR SHOULD
OCCUR...LOCALLY APCHG 3 INCHES/HOUR IN HEAVIEST CORES.

SFC ANALYSIS AND COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST E OF BUOY 42019...MOVING
SLOWLY/ERRATICALLY ATTM. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING
GRADUALLY DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS FROM COASTLINE SWD OVER GULF...IN
NERN QUADRANT OF ASSOCIATED LOW-MIDLEVEL CYCLONE. TWO
CONFLUENT/CONVERGENT AREAS ARE INDICATED --
1. AREA OF PRONOUNCED SFC SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG COASTLINE
CORRESPONDING TO SFC TROUGH AND ROUGHLY 90 DEG SELY-NELY
WINDSHIFT...AND ALSO...
2. SSE-NNW ALIGNED BAND OF STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE CORRESPONDING TO
BUILDING/BKN CONVECTIVE BAND WITH NORTHERN TERMINUS OVER BPT
AREA...WHERE IT INTERSECTS COASTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS.

AREA OF INTERSECTING CONVERGENCE AXES INVOF BPT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORED LOCALE FOR MOST PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING/MERGING
ACTIVITY...MIXTURE OF WARM CLOUD AND DEEPER/TSTM PROCESSES WILL
PERSIST ALONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SWWD PAST GLS/FREEPORT AREAS.
VERY RICH PW -- AROUND 2.25 INCHES PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE
RAOBS...WITH GPS PW DATA UNAVAILABLE ATTM. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG OVER GULF COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS
ALONG WITH LITTLE CINH...IN SUPPORT OF CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN CONVERGENCE ZONES.

..EDWARDS.. 09/12/2007


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

[MiamiensisWx]

I think I can see a definite broad circulation at the surface. Look at the long range radar from Galveston, TX. Additionally, winds in GLS (Galveston) have shifted to the SE, which could support the presence of a closed sfc low. The pressure is near 1013 mbar (winds near ~13 mph) in GLS. Look at the current obs. 850 mbar vorticity is abundant, and the recent GOES visibles indicate a well defined MLC. The TPC may eventually pull the trigger, especially when you consider its close proximity to land.

[vacanechaser]

Looks like JB is about to get his man.

After being only 35 mb off on Gabrielle he had to hit one right eventually.

that may be true about the pressure... i will give you that.. however he called the developemnt a weeke away... so not so bad..




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Johnny]

If any of y'all still think this is not on its way to becoming a depression or storm, you might want to find another hobby.

This doesn't look good at all for us here in Southeast, Texas. A very slow tropical system is NEVER good for this area. For all of you in low lying areas, I'd start getting prepared, NOW.

[Stratosphere747]

Quick update from Jeff by email -

Based on surface data, radar, and satellite images it appears the area of low pressure off the TX coast is becoming better organized and a tropical depression or storm may be forming.

Latest buoy data shows the air pressure has fallen 2 mb in the last 3 hours offshore with surface pressures now down to 1006 mb. A suspect 29kt surface wind was recorded by a ship east of the estimated low center with 10-20 kt winds common off the upper Tcoast at platforms and ships. Radar loops from HGX and CRP show a well defined center located SSW of Galveston and E of Corpus Christi nearly stationary.

Upper air winds have become favorable for development as noted by increasing upper level outflow. A tropical depression or storm could form before the center crosses the coast in the next 48 hours.

May need to ramp up tides and coastal winds if the system continues to develop as ENE flow will begin to pile water along the beaches.

Flash Flood Watch will be issued shortly for coastal counties with Flash Flood Warning for Galveston County currently in effect.

Squalls and feeder bands will be spreading inland today and tonight as the center of the low sits offshore.

[Dean4Storms]

Texas looks to get the prize of the home brewed variety this year, albeit weak systems (Except Heavy Rain) Thankfully!

[drezee]

25 knot West WNW wind

12/13 42019 27.9 -95.4 26.1 23.7 300 21 G 25 290 25 1007.3 -1.3 29.7 1.0 6 42019

In addition, the pressure dropped a full mb last hour at a time when the pressure should be naturally rising. We may have a quick ramp up on our hands. We all better hope this thing gets inland fast!

[Stormcenter]

25 knot West WNW wind

12/13 42019 27.9 -95.4 26.1 23.7 300 21 G 25 290 25 1007.3 -1.3 29.7 1.0 6 42019

In addition, the pressure dropped a full mb last hour at a time when the pressure should be naturally rising. We may have a quick ramp up on our hands. We all better hope this thing gets inland fast!

Thanks to the front to it's north this thing may not be going anywhere "fast" anytime soon.

[wxman57]

Note that the new model guidance has 90L as DISTURBANCE NINE (AL092007) 20070912 1200 UTC. So if this is TD 9, that means 91L will be upgraded to TD 8 shortly.

[PhillyWX]

NRL has it as 09L

[Stratosphere747]

Note that the new model guidance has 90L as DISTURBANCE NINE (AL092007) 20070912 1200 UTC. So if this is TD 9, that means 91L will be upgraded to TD 8 shortly.

Good call 57, looks like we have two depressions now.

[mattpetre]

WOW... I woke up this morning and realized why I never gave up on you 90L...

Do the pros believe this storm is going to linger still? This could be a very long week in Houston.

[Stormcenter]

It looks like it is continuing to organize rather quickly and not moving much at all. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[x-y-no]

Texas looks to get the prize of the home brewed variety this year, albeit weak systems (Except Heavy Rain) Thankfully!

Yeah, looks like I'm eating crow on this one. I said 90L does nothing.

Thankfully it doesn't have much room for intensification, but it could easily make it to a moderate TS.

[windstorm99]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1323 UTC WED SEP 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE NINE (AL092007) 20070912 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070912 1200 070913 0000 070913 1200 070914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.8N 95.2W 28.7N 95.7W 29.9N 96.0W 31.1N 95.5W
BAMD 27.8N 95.2W 28.6N 95.6W 30.0N 95.3W 31.9N 94.0W
BAMM 27.8N 95.2W 28.6N 95.7W 29.9N 95.7W 31.3N 94.8W
LBAR 27.8N 95.2W 28.5N 95.4W 29.7N 95.4W 31.4N 94.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070914 1200 070915 1200 070916 1200 070917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.6N 95.4W 31.1N 97.7W 32.9N 99.9W 35.6N 100.6W
BAMD 33.6N 91.4W 37.4N 75.5W 44.8N 57.6W 51.2N 39.6W
BAMM 32.2N 93.7W 31.0N 92.9W 30.3N 95.4W 31.7N 97.9W
LBAR 33.7N 93.4W 39.0N 83.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 45KTS 38KTS 34KTS 35KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.8N LONCUR = 95.2W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 26.8N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 349DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 94.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[destruction92]

looking at the latest ANIMATE surface analysis map, the cold front stretched out over Texas does not look to be weakening OR stalling at all...dont believe me, look here... http://www.intellicast.com/Weather/Anal ... large=true (click animate to see movement of the front)



90L looks to be more of a threat to Louisiana...either way, the right side of tropical disturbances always if not most of the times has the worst of the weather with it...that is why extreme western Louisiana saw the worse of Hurricane Rita.

[Stormcenter]

Texas looks to get the prize of the home brewed variety this year, albeit weak systems (Except Heavy Rain) Thankfully!

Yeah, looks like I'm eating crow on this one. I said 90L does nothing.

Thankfully it doesn't have much room for intensification, but it could easily make it to a moderate TS.

Well that would be true if it were moving but it's moving much at all if any right now. IMO