Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[opera ghost]

It's so darn close to the coast that it's hard to see landfall estimates on a spaghetti =(

Not that I'm worried about a category 5 or anything, but I'll have to bring in my plants and maybe find a bucket to bail out the back patio if this thing decides to soak the Hou/Gal area.

[destruction92]

Texas looks to get the prize of the home brewed variety this year, albeit weak systems (Except Heavy Rain) Thankfully!

Yeah, looks like I'm eating crow on this one. I said 90L does nothing.

Thankfully it doesn't have much room for intensification, but it could easily make it to a moderate TS.

Well that would be true if it were moving but it's moving much at all if any right now. IMO

Wxman57 does not seem too concerned about 90L...he thinks it should just be major rain maker.
Usually tropical systems do not rapidly intensify when too close to an approaching trough due to some strong upper level shear...
If 90L was sitting under a ridge, then it would have a much better chance to rapidly intensify.

[TexWx]

email from jeff:

"TD will be declared at 1000am for Gulf system.



NHC will start advisories. TS Watches or warning may be required for the upper TX coast.



Aircraft will be in the air by 1100am to check intensity and determine if a TS has formed.



Will need to ramp up tides and seas and wind forecast. Buoy 80 miles S of Freeport is already sustained at 21kts with surface pressure of 1007mb 30 miles W of center. Pressure pressures have been falling at nearly 1mb per hour since this morning.



Track guidance shows a NNW to NW toward the upper TX coast moving onshore between Matagorda Bay and Freeport late Thursday. Main threat will be extreme rainfall."

[tailgater]

I have been looking at Radar and Bouy reports all morning and all though it looks organized I think the LLC is NW of that Convective Blob and very near the coast. I guess it might get pulled under MLC since it does look well developed. Maybe 57 can put up 1 of his charts with the surface obs if he gets a chance.

[opera ghost]

It really doesn't look favorable for rapid intensification or the 3-4 days out in the ocean for this thing to really wrap up on itself and turn nasty.

That said, a rainmaker is probably the worse of the three evils from a moderate TS right now (wind/rain/surge). I don't know about the rest of y'all, but I don't really think the ground around our apartment can take more than a light rain shower before starting to soup up into goo- I don't even want to think about the bayous (which, thankfully, we're pretty far away from).

[Air Force Met]

I have been looking at Radar and Bouy reports all morning and all though it looks organized I think the LLC is NW of that Convective Blob and very near the coast. I guess it might get pulled under MLC since it does look well developed. Maybe 57 can put up 1 of his charts with the surface obs if he gets a chance.

The LLC is about 80 miles off shore...it is under the MLC or very near it. That fits with the BUOY reports.

[HURAKAN]

S 1200 27.90 -94.60 149 292 170 38.1 - 11.5 4.0

Maybe there is a problem with the anemometer of the ship but it's possible that it may be true.

[Roxy]

Flooding is going to be an issue in the Houston area, no doubt.

I hope everyone is aware of what's going on and take precautions to get off the roads. Allison snuck up on us like this..

Any mets know the chances of this one stalling like Allison did? Or is that not even on the table...(I hope).

[PhillyWX]

Looks like JB is about to get his man.

After being only 35 mb off on Gabrielle he had to hit one right eventually.

that may be true about the pressure... i will give you that.. however he called the developemnt a weeke away... so not so bad..




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree the call on Gabby wasn't terrible but he needs to tone down his extreme bias in forecasting. It sets him up for too much ridicule and criticism.

[Stormcenter]

Flooding is going to be an issue in the Houston area, no doubt.

I hope everyone is aware of what's going on and take precautions to get off the roads. Allison snuck up on us like this..

Any mets know the chances of this one stalling like Allison did? Or is that not even on the table...(I hope).

Good post and I believe a stall or very erractic moving system is very possible.

[miamicanes177]

Dr. Masters in his own words from wunderground.com:

"Long range radar out of Houston (Figure 1) shows a well-defined surface circulation exists about 100 miles south of Freeport, with some low-level spiral bands starting to get organized. A ship just east of the center measured 40 knot (46 mph) winds at 8am EDT, but this is likely a strong downburst wind from a thunderstorm, and is not representative of the larger-scale winds. A buoy 70 miles south of Freeport measured sustained winds of 25 mph at 8:50am EDT. Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots, and 90L does have time to develop into a tropical storm before it makes landfall tonight or Thursday along the mid or upper Texas coast. Since this system is very slow moving, it has the potential to drop rain amounts in excess of ten inches along the Texas and Louisiana coasts--including the Houston metropolitan area--over the next two days. These rains may cause widespread destructive flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches have already occurred along the coast, from Freeport to the Louisiana border, as estimated by radar. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this storm at 2pm EDT this afternoon."

[Stormcenter]

It continues to get better organized with every new satellite image and it is
not moving much. I wouldn't write off 90L as just a rainmaker. It may turn out
to be a little bit more then that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[opera ghost]

Sweet jeebus, 10 inches?

And the rain just started up this morning again. Very light, but it doesn't take much to make the streets splashy. Time to move the car up onto the second floor of the parking garage and move the plants in if this isn't just the usual daily showers we've been getting and is the start of this stuff.

[Chacor]

First HDOB: on the ground.

965
URNT15 KNHC 121350
AF303 01HHA INVEST HDOB 01 20070912
134030 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +295 +229 360000 000 999 999 23
134100 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +291 +229 360000 000 999 999 23
134130 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +289 +229 360000 000 999 999 23
134200 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +290 +229 360000 000 999 999 23
134230 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +290 +229 360000 000 999 999 23
134300 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +294 +228 360000 000 999 999 23
134330 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +293 +229 360000 000 999 999 23
134400 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +292 +228 360000 000 999 999 23
134430 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0147 +289 +231 360000 000 999 999 23
134500 3025N 08855W 0158 00000 0148 +290 +232 360000 000 999 999 23
134530 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +280 +233 360000 000 999 999 23
134600 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0150 +269 +234 360000 000 999 999 23
134630 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0151 +264 +234 360000 000 999 999 23
134700 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0151 +260 +235 360000 000 999 999 23
134730 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0150 +260 +235 360000 000 999 999 23
134800 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0150 +264 +236 360000 000 999 999 23
134830 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0150 +264 +235 360000 000 999 999 23
134900 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0149 +260 +234 360000 000 999 999 23
134930 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0150 +263 +236 360000 000 999 999 23
135000 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +265 +237 360000 000 999 999 23
$$

[Chacor]

Recon plane has issued its first HDOB, on the ground at Keesler.

[Chacor]

Plane has left.

238
URNT15 KNHC 121400
AF303 01HHA INVEST HDOB 02 20070912
135030 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0150 +261 +235 360000 000 999 999 23
135100 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0151 +260 +236 360000 000 999 999 23
135130 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0152 +260 +237 360000 000 999 999 23
135200 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0150 +260 +229 360000 000 999 999 23
135230 3025N 08855W 0159 00000 0146 +254 +239 303004 005 999 999 23
135300 3024N 08856W 0007 00126 0152 +243 +233 292005 005 999 999 03
135330 3023N 08857W 9792 00323 0159 +230 +222 251006 006 999 999 03
135400 3021N 08858W 9465 00617 0157 +214 +192 241004 005 025 007 03
135430 3020N 08859W 9079 00986 0168 +193 +166 238006 007 999 999 03
135500 3018N 08900W 8759 01291 0165 +176 +159 261011 013 999 999 03
135530 3017N 08901W 8458 01594 0165 +160 +138 268012 012 999 999 03
135600 3015N 08902W 8140 01919 0163 +144 +118 273011 012 999 999 03
135630 3014N 08903W 7839 02236 0159 +126 +100 264011 012 999 999 03
135700 3013N 08905W 7558 02548 0152 +111 +078 259010 010 999 999 03
135730 3013N 08907W 7296 02839 0153 +098 +061 249008 009 999 999 03
135800 3012N 08909W 7082 03090 0157 +083 +046 262006 007 999 999 03
135830 3011N 08911W 6866 03347 0162 +066 +043 267005 006 999 999 03
135900 3011N 08912W 6677 03575 0161 +053 +032 246004 005 999 999 03
135930 3010N 08914W 6482 03816 0154 +039 +024 243005 006 020 007 03
140000 3009N 08916W 6305 04045 0159 +025 +017 275005 005 029 005 03
$$

[Chacor]

Takeoff at 13:53:00.

[Stormcenter]

Another good sat. loop that shows the blow up of convection
in 90L in the last 12 hours.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Chacor]

Recon has departed Keesler.

[sealbach]

I'm surprised it's looking so good this quickly. Any chance this thing lingers in the GOM through Friday?