Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[jeff]

TD at 1000am.

Main threat will be "potential" for "incredible" rainfall amounts. Could easily see 10-15 inches over parts of SE TX as center is very slow moving and should linger for several days.

[Tireman4]

Thanks Jeff, WXMan57 and all the pro and amateur mets on the board. What are the chances this will be a minimal to maybe strong Tropical Storm?

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[Chacor]

811
URNT15 KNHC 121410
AF303 01HHA INVEST HDOB 03 20070912
140030 3008N 08918W 6141 04264 0153 +018 +008 285006 008 023 006 03
140100 3008N 08920W 5966 04469 0117 +011 -004 272009 010 021 007 03
140130 3007N 08922W 5770 04737 0108 -005 -014 259006 007 020 007 03
140200 3006N 08923W 5646 04911 0105 -011 -029 261005 006 024 006 03
140230 3005N 08925W 5513 05108 0101 -017 -049 231005 006 026 006 03
140300 3005N 08927W 5396 05284 0274 -028 -062 267005 005 092 001 03
140330 3004N 08929W 5284 05442 0281 -041 -066 286005 005 108 022 03
140400 3003N 08931W 5177 05606 0291 -052 -068 286005 006 070 000 03
140430 3002N 08933W 5077 05757 0298 -057 -088 304008 008 032 005 00
140500 3001N 08935W 5052 05792 0299 -060 -092 313008 009 027 006 00
140530 3000N 08937W 5055 05792 0299 -062 -095 319008 009 024 006 00
140600 2959N 08940W 5054 05786 0294 -064 -098 319008 009 022 007 00
140630 2958N 08942W 5055 05781 0290 -065 -089 320007 007 034 004 00
140700 2957N 08945W 5058 05775 0287 -065 -095 311007 008 065 000 00
140730 2956N 08947W 5066 05763 0288 -063 -092 307008 008 101 000 00
140800 2955N 08950W 5062 05770 0293 -065 -089 310007 007 153 000 03
140830 2954N 08953W 5057 05785 0307 -065 -092 313006 007 999 999 03
140900 2953N 08955W 5058 05832 0334 -065 -091 315005 006 999 999 03
140930 2952N 08958W 5058 05818 0308 -065 -090 307004 004 999 999 03
141000 2951N 09000W 5058 05820 0315 -065 -090 321003 004 999 999 03
$$

[Air Force Met]

Thanks Jeff, WXMan57 and all the pro and amateur mets on the board. What are the chances this will be a minimal to maybe strong Tropical Storm?

Should be no problem with this reaching min TS-mod TS.

[Stratosphere747]

Should show enough movement AFM to get this onshore by Thursday evening?

[Stormcenter]

I still can't believe "some" people were writing this off yestesday when it was
just sitting there over pretty much ideal (very warm waters & low shear) conditions.

[sealbach]

Over NO right now

[Evil Jeremy]

09LNONAME

[Stormcenter]

It almost looks like it's drifting eastward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[jhamps10]

09LNONAME

not offically TD9 from NHC, but that's as close to offical as you can get guys. TD at 10.

[Chacor]

688
URNT15 KNHC 121420
AF303 01HHA INVEST HDOB 04 20070912
141030 2951N 09003W 5058 05827 0314 -065 -089 355001 002 999 999 03
141100 2951N 09006W 5061 05805 0306 -065 -091 018001 001 999 999 03
141130 2950N 09009W 5059 05720 0242 -065 -088 359002 002 999 999 03
141200 2950N 09012W 5059 05727 0245 -065 -086 033002 003 999 999 03
141230 2949N 09014W 5059 05744 0256 -062 -089 036002 002 999 999 03
141300 2948N 09017W 5059 05751 0264 -060 -089 034001 002 999 999 03
141330 2948N 09020W 5052 05760 0262 -064 -087 044001 001 999 999 03
141400 2947N 09023W 5058 05754 0267 -063 -087 034001 001 999 999 03
141430 2947N 09025W 5059 05760 0273 -060 -087 042001 002 999 999 03
141500 2946N 09028W 5058 05761 0276 -060 -087 033002 002 999 999 03
141530 2945N 09031W 5061 05763 0277 -058 -089 030002 003 999 999 03
141600 2945N 09034W 5058 05767 0278 -056 -087 010002 002 999 999 03
141630 2944N 09037W 5058 05761 0274 -059 -089 307000 000 999 999 03
141700 2943N 09039W 5058 05761 0271 -055 -090 151000 001 999 999 03
141730 2943N 09042W 5059 05763 0276 -055 -091 161001 002 999 999 03
141800 2942N 09045W 5058 05771 0283 -056 -097 214001 002 999 999 03
141830 2941N 09048W 5059 05756 0274 -055 -095 235001 002 999 999 03
141900 2941N 09051W 5058 05791 0301 -055 -090 260001 001 999 999 03
141930 2940N 09053W 5055 05809 0317 -057 -087 296000 000 999 999 03
142000 2940N 09056W 5061 05800 0318 -059 -085 309000 000 999 999 03
$$

[Air Force Met]

Should show enough movement AFM to get this onshore by Thursday evening?

SB inland by tomorrow morning...

[southerngale]

I still can't believe "some" people were writing this off yestesday when it was
just sitting there over pretty much ideal (very warm waters & low shear) conditions.

I think the real shock is that you seem stunned that everyone isn't 100% perfect every minute of the day. Weather forecasting is data analysis and prediction... everyone is going to be wrong some of the time... not a big deal. Anyone can look at the data available and read it one way, and then an hour later, they themselves may see something entirely different. No sense in continuing to call them out.

[Tireman4]

Thanks Jeff, WXMan57 and all the pro and amateur mets on the board. What are the chances this will be a minimal to maybe strong Tropical Storm?

Should be no problem with this reaching min TS-mod TS.

Thanks as always AFM.

[hiflyer]

Heck....at this rate they won't even get their first cup of coffee down before they are in there....don't see a TS close as no real center but the mass about 100 miles south of the Houston Radar looks to have the best potential....and looks to have a slight overall NE drift.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New BAMs/SHIPs model run calls it Disturbance 09...

[Chacor]

401
URNT11 KNHC 121423
97779 14204 41296 90900 54800 99005 56591 /4589
RMK AF303 01HHA INVEST OB 01

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 14:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate seventh suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 14:20Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 29.6N 90.9W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... &lon=-90.9
Location: 57 miles (91 km) to the WSW (243°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 5,480 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -6°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -9°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
500 mb Surface Altitude: 5,890 geopotential meters

[Air Force Met]

New BAMs/SHIPs model run calls it Disturbance 09...

Go back a couple of pages...

[Stormcenter]

I still can't believe "some" people were writing this off yestesday when it was
just sitting there over pretty much ideal (very warm waters & low shear) conditions.

I think the real shock is that you seem stunned that everyone isn't 100% perfect every minute of the day. Weather forecasting is data analysis and prediction... everyone is going to be wrong some of the time... not a big deal. Anyone can look at the data available and read it one way, and then an hour later, they themselves may see something entirely different. No sense in continuing to call them out.

I guess my point is after all of this time (tracking storms,education,etc.)you would think by now you should know to "never say never" because you just don't know when you are dealing with the tropics. Look I've been guilty of it myself but I'm learning not to say it anymore only when it's pretty obvious. I don't think it was with 90L. The conditions were good for development.