TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Interesting to see that within 7 days, the set up of high and low pressure over the CONUS seems to show a pretty well established ridge. The front along the eastern sea board will have dissipated and been replaced by that high in the atlantic.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_pre.html

BUT... what is that on the horizon? It appears that another front is in the middle of the US and heading southeast. It will probably take at least another 3 days for it to reach the southeast/gulf/east coast.

It looks like we are going to see the set up of an approaching front right when this *possibly major hurricane* is getting right into the area when someone would be feeling it. I suspect it will be either a Florida storm or possibly something that could even be forced to skirt along Cuba's norhtern coast, directed by the ridge that builds back in over the top of it. Then the effects of that approaching front will be coming in to play...

We'll probably be playing the notorious "timing game" of exactly when the front will exert its affect on the storm to determine its probable path! Yeehaw! -that's the fun part ..wobble watching... TX vs. FL vs. NC/SC folks... this could get verrrryyyy interesting!

(wonder if I took vacation days on 9/21 & 9/24 for a good reason?!!! -I'll be able to stay up late and storm watch with the folks here!!! )

[dwg71]

my initial reaction is , that this will not make a run to the western gulf. It appears that fronts are approaching coast and it will catch one of them before getting that far west. SE Coast would be my first guess. Daytona to Outter Banks. IMO

[storms in NC]

From TD9 will help TD8 move to the north. If you look at the path of TD9 you can see it going though the southern part of the US to the coast. this would pull TD8 to the north. So from Fla up would be my guess.JMHO for what it is worth.

[Meso]

[ronjon]

Derek Ott's forecast is considerably south of the NHCs. He has the storm nearing the central to northern Leeward Islands in 5 days. This may enter the NE caribbean and eventually threaten PR.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I don't think TD9 will really have any affect on the motion of TD8. TD9 is a low level system and steering currents are driven primarily by upper level patterns. In addition, TD9 will be dissipated and absorbed into any fronts long before TD8 even gets near the US. TD8 is at least 7 days away, if not 10, from any US coastline. TD9 will be history after this weekend.

[MWatkins]

By big I mean large in terms of size…and possibly intensity.

The GFS and the GFS dependant models are seeing westerly/southwesterly zonal shear coming out of the Caribbean through the forecast period in the order of 30 knots. Put that on top of a tropical cyclone and you get a weak system.

NOGAPS is not as strong and is seeing weaker westerly/nw shear in that time period…which would not be as prohibitive.

However, the global models do not do much with td-8 and hence are underestimating how much of an upper high the system can build between now and the time it reaches the increased shear zone (nearing 60 west). There is easterly shear for now but TD8 is moving a little faster than the models are projecting…so the impact of the easterly shear could be a little less.

Also I think intensification is underdone between now and Saturday…

Will be interesting to watch the upper level wind trends in the coming days to see if the GFS starts to back off of the shear idea.

MW

[windstorm99]

Here are Monthly Zones of Orgin and Hurricane Tracks for september systems.

[Brent]

Here are Monthly Zones of Orgin and Hurricane Tracks for september systems.

That *really* narrows it down.

[MWatkins]

Oh and also...my unofficial forecast thinking is to expect a track near the GFDL/Consensus...faster and to the south of the current guidance. This should also keep the TD in a little more favorable environment...

MW

[windstorm99]

systems in a similar location either move out to sea or impact florida

[storms in NC]

day 5 it is in La almost to Miss. So by day 8-9 it will be going off the coast or near to it. So that would pull TD8 up. A low will go to a low but not a high. It will go around a high. If any thing it will weaken the ridge.Like I said JMO for what it is worth. So Fla up needs to watch this one.

[hial2]

I'm thinking of a Floyd-like track possibility...Since last year,I've had this sinking feeling..

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

A more southerly route initially brings to mind a Charley-like possibility with the possibility of fronts in the picture... though I doubt this will be such a small, compact system like Charlie was. Maybe a Frances-sized, Charlie-like path is possible? --now that would suck. waters are very very warm along a Charlie-like path.

[storms in NC]

I'm thinking of a Floyd-like track possibility...Since last year,I've had this sinking feeling..

I hope I never see a floyd ever again. I don't want to rebuild again.

[huricanwatcher]

I'm thinking of a Floyd-like track possibility...Since last year,I've had this sinking feeling..

I hope I never see a floyd ever again. I don't want to rebuild again.

Its so dry here, dont think even if it took a "Floyd" path that the results would be the same as 1999

[Anthonyl]

Folks i am having difficulty seeing this wnw movement. The system is moving due west and at a faster clip now.

[angelwing]

We don't need another Floyd up here either, once was enough!

[Sanibel]

Still elongated at the surface. Ridge is still enough in place to bend this more west.