Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[MiamiensisWx]

Do you think we'll see another backup mission take off from Keesler? I thought the other planes were dispatched to the Antilles for TD 8.

[mattpetre]

Looks like a maybe a very slow North to NNE movement. Any comments?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Agree..Very Eratic ATM...

My guess is that "landfall" will be made about 15 to 30 miles east of Galveston (yes, basically a slight NNE movement through the day). Then again, with the trough leaving this behind and the divergence of the steering currents here, it could move a little west of N also. Very tricky. I'll stick with my first statement here though.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Could not have been too serious thankfully because they didn't head directly to shore to land.

[Johnny]

Does anyone else think this has a chance of reaching hurricane status or I'm I the only one?

[dwg71]

This is NOT an ALLISON situation with 20+ inches of rain.

I never said it was. I said this could be the worse flooding since Allison.

From the Houston/Galveston discussion...pretty much what I had in mind.


TOTAL EVENT QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH WIDESPREAD
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEARING 15 INCHES AS OUTER BANDS
ROTATE ON IN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

I think bulk of rain will be east of metroplex. 6-8 inches is what I had in mind, similar to Erin, but Houston will (should) be on the dry side of landfall as opposed to Erin where we were on the wet side. IMO it wont even approach Erin let alone Allison (in regards to Houston flooding).

[sealbach]

on HGX radar it looks stationary

[mattpetre]

I'll be taking tons of photos over the next day or so here in SETX...We were already drenched from last week...This could get real ugly real fast, which i suspect it is....Just spoke with my bro (pro met here in Beaumont) and he thinks it will be a slow mover but will be out of the way sometime on Friday but the damage will have already been done.

I will post plenty of photos...Just need to know how to post. Thanks!

Using ImageShack is really easy... just use the browse and host it! buttons below the posting text area and then cut and paste the links for images into an "[ img ] link goes here [ /img ]" area in your post...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Continues to improve in organization.

[drezee]

On occasion when you have a developing system, there are a number of convective bursts that move the center temporarily. This can actually ramp it up quickly to a mid-level TS, but are not common is hurricanes or strong tropical storms as the center is well established. What this can mean is that if the center does become well established it can ramp quickly.

[CrazyC83]

Does anyone else think this has a chance of reaching hurricane status or I'm I the only one?

It has an outside chance if it stalls.

I think a 45-55 kt TS at landfall personally.

[mattpetre]

Does anyone else think this has a chance of reaching hurricane status or I'm I the only one?

It has an outside chance if it stalls.

I think a 45-55 kt TS at landfall personally.

If it does make Cat 1 status before landfall I will be flabbergasted because I had predicted that it would be almost 5 days ago on the first 90L invest thread (or maybe it was the GOM depression forming thread before that even.) I'm never that close to being right, so it just can't make it to Hurricane status...

[mattpetre]

That makes me wonder if that was what Dr Steve Lyons was talking about all along. He mentioned it i think over the weekend or last week. The thought just crossed my ming after reading some of the latest post.

Everyone was sure doubting Dr. Lyons when he kept talking about 90L moving North to TX/LA... looks like he was pretty close to me.

[dwg71]

I would say chance of cat 1 around 3%, NHC has it only at 40KT at its peak. Approaching trough will make it next to impossible to get to hurricane strength.

[opera ghost]

There's always a chance, but I wouldn't put any money on it. =)

We're treating our preparation like it were a low level hurricane heading directly into Galveston- but I don't expect to need the ice cubes, candles, and dry goods.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best, expect the average.

[CrazyC83]

The big question is which will be Humberto and which will be Ingrid? This should be Ingrid unless the 1 pm intermediate advisory upgrades it (since TD8 has no intermediate advisory planned as no watches/warnings are out)...

[Stormcenter]

Well it looks like the whole system is taking more of northerly motion instead of NNW. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[mattpetre]

What if that wave in the E. GOM decides to take a path similar to TD9? UGH, more rain in SE TX. Conditions in the GOM have improved for storm formation across the board, we should keep an eye on this second wave.

[CypressMike]

I would say chance of cat 1 around 3%, NHC has it only at 40KT at its peak. Approaching trough will make it next to impossible to get to hurricane strength.

NHC gives it a 10% chance of reaching Cat 1 in 24 hours.

[sealbach]

Well it looks like the whole system is taking more of northerly motion instead of NNW. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

When it's this close to land, the best way to detect motion is through radar and it appears stationary when you look at it from that view.

[green eyed girl]

Well it looks like the whole system is taking more of northerly motion instead of NNW. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

It looks that way to me, too. Possibly a tiny movement to the East as well.