TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

day 5 it is in La almost to Miss. So by day 8-9 it will be going off the coast or near to it. So that would pull TD8 up. A low will go to a low but not a high. It will go around a high. If any thing it will weaken the ridge.Like I said JMO for what it is worth. So Fla up needs to watch this one.

I agree with the location you put it at, but it won't be anything by then but part of the front. It is because it meets up with the front that it moves in that direction to begin with. It should quickly become subtropical/absorbed by the front that then goes on to pretty much dissipate from that point on, allowing the atlantic ridge to then build back in towards and over Florida. With the projected speed of TD8, even if it goes a little faster than expected, it will still be quite a ways away from the US and any influence of that front, which will be non-exitent, by day 7, according to the link I posted from the HPC.

[storms in NC]

I'm thinking of a Floyd-like track possibility...Since last year,I've had this sinking feeling..

I hope I never see a floyd ever again. I don't want to rebuild again.

Its so dry here, dont think even if it took a "Floyd" path that the results would be the same as 1999

No I don't think so either. We had 5 fires here last night. 2 really bad ones. Hubby and Brother are fire fighters and took water and ice to them. It was about 20 miles down the road. It is very dry here. We didn't get the rain from Gabby. But we really could use a storm to get the rain.

[windstorm99]

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I'm thinking of a Floyd-like track possibility...Since last year,I've had this sinking feeling..

I hope I never see a floyd ever again. I don't want to rebuild again.

Its so dry here, dont think even if it took a "Floyd" path that the results would be the same as 1999

True. In '99 there was a series of storms that predicated Floyd, resulting in super-saturated grounds before hand. I moved away from eastern NC the year before. Come to find out, my entire town was submerged by over 17 ft. of water because of Floyd.

[jdray]

I believe the rainmaker in 04 was Frances.

Yup, the winds and rain hit me for 3 straight days as she curved around me.

Was not fun

[fci]

Well, for what it's worth; historical tracks put TD 8 northeast of the islands and a threat to the Carolinas or a fish.

Not that 2007 has followed historical tracks much though............

[mattpetre]

From the looks of the model tracks above and the actual storm location in the Satellite loop it's already passing well south of guidance. It's bound to take that WNW track at some point, but doesn't seem to want to right now.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Looking at the loop it appears shear may be having an effect on this. Cloud tops have warmed since this morning and overall the structure is a little ragged.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[dtrain44]

She looks pretty good for a TD on satellite.....I agree with the suggestions that this could stay a little more south. Given where it is, somebody's going to be impacted here.

The model guidance isn't all that spread out, but given where the storm is, the difference between the north side of the cone and the south side of the cone is huge in terms of US/Caribbean impact. I think we'll know a lot more about US impacts in three days or so.....

[Wx_Warrior]

whats the 12z gfs do with it?

[Meso]

lol.. It's the GFS.. It's been terrible with waves all year really.Wouldn't trust it a bit,as for the 12z on it,at 72 hours it just shows an open wave,like it's done with most of the storms

[windstorm99]

lol.. It's the GFS.. It's been terrible with waves all year really.Wouldn't trust it a bit,as for the 12z on it,at 72 hours it just shows an open wave,like it's done with most of the storms

GFDL also has not done to well this year...

[storms in NC]

I still say TD9 will have something to do with TD8 down the road. By day 5 TD8 will be east of Dominica. so by day 7 it should be east of PR. So yes it can be a factor with TD8.It is all in the timing here. But where I don't really know. It would olny be a guess.

Yes we had over 17ft here too. for 12 days. Smellllllll Once in a while I can still smell it.

[CrazyC83]

This looks more like a tropical storm right now. I'd say TS Humberto or TS Ingrid at 5 pm.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[windstorm99]

This looks more like a tropical storm right now. I'd say TS Humberto or TS Ingrid at 5 pm.

Its forcasted to be a TS later today.

[x-y-no]

This looks more like a tropical storm right now. I'd say TS Humberto or TS Ingrid at 5 pm.

Its forcasted to be a TS later today.

Heh ...

I forgot that the I storm this year is Ingrid. Would be fitting, I guess, if it interfered with my helping my parents travel down - my mother's name is Ingrid.

[windstorm99]

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/10. THE
DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY
OR SO WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE AND MOVE
SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

I think by then a more pronounced WNW movement or even NW should be expected in the coming days.

[CrazyC83]

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/10. THE
DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY
OR SO WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE AND MOVE
SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

I think by then a more pronounced WNW movement or even NW should be expected in the coming days.

This reminds me of the early stages of Hugo...it would be fitting for this to be named Humberto as he replaced Hugo on the list...

[otowntiger]

Looking at the loop it appears shear may be having an effect on this. Cloud tops have warmed since this morning and overall the structure is a little ragged.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Well it is only a tropical depression. By their very nature they are going to look ragged. And cloud tops will always pulse up and down, even with the strongers storms. Not that I'm saying it isn't being affected by shear, because I sure wouldn't know, but I just thought it was funny calling a tropical depression ragged. How smooth and organized can you expect it to be at this stage?