Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[HURAKAN]

The big question is which will be Humberto and which will be Ingrid? This should be Ingrid unless the 1 pm intermediate advisory upgrades it (since TD8 has no intermediate advisory planned as no watches/warnings are out)...

This system will most likely become Humberto.

WV tells the real story:

TD#9


TD#8

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[CrazyC83]

The only flight out right now is a NOAA training flight (perhaps a test flight of the aircraft repaired after Felix?).

[ronjon]

They had it going 350 (almost due north) at the 10am advisory. It may be hooking slightly, and if so, maybe landfalling closer to High Island or points farther east? If so, looks like the greatest rainfall threats for metro areas would be in the Golden Triangle and Lake Charles MSA's. JMO and that's near term/direct impact rainfall.

Steve

Derek Ott's track is slower and further east than the NHCs. He has the storm staying over the gulf for about 24 hrs.

[Steve]

Interesting. Maybe a 60mph storm if that's the case. I'll have to check the Tropical Analysis forum to see what he's got. I like Derek's work a lot.

Steve

[cyclonic chronic]

looks like reds and yellows starting to surround circulation center on radar, located directly south of galveston island

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Steve]

"Hurricane Local Statement" The purples arrive on the NWS sites. *NOTE* Doesn't indicate hurricanes, just that local statements are coming out of the forecast offices.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... +Statement

[opera ghost]

Out of curiosity, but no censure- are the number of canceled flights this year normal? Seems like it might be time to overhaul the airplanes if they're acting up more than usual.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

That aircraft (N43RF) is getting positioned for this mission:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08
FLIGHT ONE
A. 14/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0108A CYCLONE
C. 13/2000Z
D. 14.0N 48.0W
E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[tailgater]

Anybody know what happen to Recon.

[HURAKAN]

Out of curiosity, but no censure- are the number of canceled flights this year normal? Seems like it might be time to overhaul the airplanes if they're acting up more than usual.

Don't know the reason, but I think we have seem more canceled missions or missions with problems than in previous seasons.

[Chacor]

The only flight out right now is a NOAA training flight (perhaps a test flight of the aircraft repaired after Felix?).

Flights to TD8 are set to be NOAA aircraft, so it's a possibility.

[haml8]

Are the conditions for this storm (depression) similar to that of Tropical Storm Allison (2001?).

When I looked at the path of Allison, I noticed that it went N and then circled back S and back around again, causing a big rainy mess and $$$$ in damage from flooding.

So is this similar in nature?

[k4sdi]

Radar imagery suggests to me a northward movement, looks to me it might be ashore by late afternoon.

JMHO

[dwg71]

Are the conditions for this storm (depression) similar to that of Tropical Storm Allison (2001?).

When I looked at the path of Allison, I noticed that it went N and then circled back S and back around again, causing a big rainy mess and $$$$ in damage from flooding.

So is this similar in nature?

Allison did not have a trough coming down to help exit the system, this will not linger 4 or 5 days like Allison.

[Stormcenter]

Radar imagery suggests to me a northward movement, looks to me it might be ashore by late afternoon.

JMHO

Looks north to me too.

[chadtm80]

000
WTUS84 KHGX 121611
HLSHGX
TXZ213-214-235>238-122215-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER NINE FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS
TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY ALONG
AND TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM EDNA TO EL CAMPO TO HOUSTON TO
CONROE TO LIVINGSTON.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. REMEMBER
TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIMES EXPECTED WATER MAX

MORGANS POINT...
THU 4:02 AM. 3.1 FEET.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
WED 11:46 PM. 3.0 FEET.
EAGLE POINT...
WED 9:35 PM. 3.1 FEET.
THU 10:36 PM. 2.1 FEET.
PORT BOLIVAR...
WED 5:55 PM. 3.0 FEET.
THU 5:54 AM. 3.4 FEET.
THU 6:56 PM. 2.5 FEET.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
WED 5:41 PM. 3.0 FEET.
THU 5:40 AM. 3.4 FEET.
THU 6:42 PM. 2.5 FEET.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
WED 4:35 PM. 3.5 FEET.
THU 4:34 AM. 4.1 FEET.
THU 5:36 PM. 3.3 FEET.
JAMAICA BEACH...
WED 8:19 PM. 3.1 FEET.
THU 8:18 AM. 3.5 FEET.
THU 9:20 PM. 2.6 FEET.
SAN LUIS PASS...
WED 5:32 PM. 1.8 FEET.
THU 5:31 AM. 2.2 FEET.
THU 6:33 PM. 2.3 FEET.
FREEPORT...
WED 4:57 PM. 3.5 FEET.
THU 4:56 AM. 3.8 FEET.
THU 5:58 PM. 3.0 FEET.
PORT O CONNOR...
WED 7:34 PM. 2.4 FEET.
THU 7:30 AM. 2.7 FEET.
THU 9:02 PM. 1.9 FEET.

NOTE: TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM MEAN LOWER LOW WATER

...WINDS...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN SARGENT AND HIGH ISLAND THIS EVENING.
AREAS ALONG THE GALVESTON BAY SHORELINE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 MPH LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS MOVING INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS.

...RAINFALL...
ALONG AND EAST OF A SARGENT TO HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON LINE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A FREEPORT TO HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON
LINE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 PM CDT.

FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX.

$$

[opera ghost]

Are the conditions for this storm (depression) similar to that of Tropical Storm Allison (2001?).

When I looked at the path of Allison, I noticed that it went N and then circled back S and back around again, causing a big rainy mess and $$$$ in damage from flooding.

So is this similar in nature?

Not really. Allison was a storm pretty early in the season, and we're coming up on fall. This storm will likely continue moving to the east after it makes landfall and clear out of the area. Allison, if I remember correctly, suffered from minimal steering and just meandered on top of Houston. This storm has fairly solid steering.

The reason comparisons are being drawn are 2 fold.

1) In both cases the ground had/has been pre-saturated from earlier non-related systems, thus making any additional rain cross over into flooding territory.

2) They were both home brewed tropical storms that seemed to sneak up =)

Will there be flooding? Quite possible. It might even be severe. If things go very bad, it could be almost as bad as Allison. If things go well, it will just be a rain event that leaves us even more soggy then usual.

Allison brings to mind 2 things to Houstonians- Tropical Storms and flooding. Both of which are likely from this one. Natural to draw comparisons.

[southerngale]

This is NOT an ALLISON situation with 20+ inches of rain.

I never said it was. I said this could be the worse flooding since Allison.

From the Houston/Galveston discussion...pretty much what I had in mind.


TOTAL EVENT QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH WIDESPREAD
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEARING 15 INCHES AS OUTER BANDS
ROTATE ON IN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

I think bulk of rain will be east of metroplex. 6-8 inches is what I had in mind, similar to Erin, but Houston will (should) be on the dry side of landfall as opposed to Erin where we were on the wet side. IMO it wont even approach Erin let alone Allison (in regards to Houston flooding).

I know you're talking about Houston, but just thought I'd throw out there... LCH reported nearly 4 hours ago that up to 6 inches had already fallen in a portion of Jefferson County. (not over me)