Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[ronjon]

I don't think it's moving much at all. The RAD is showing an expansion of convection north and west of the center giving it the illusion that it is moving NW. This signature indicates to me an intensifying storm.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=HGX&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

THEY ARE BACK!!! NEW MISSION:

463
URNT15 KNHC 121643
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20070912
163300 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 9990 +384 +999 360000 000 999 999 25
163330 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +383 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
163400 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 23
163430 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163500 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163530 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +379 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163600 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163630 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163700 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163730 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163800 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163830 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163900 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163930 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164000 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164030 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +381 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164100 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +384 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164130 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164200 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164230 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
$$

Our hopes have been answered.

[Andrew92]

New flight on the runway.

Will this flight be investigating the depression/storm soon then? I really feel that recon is needed for this one, it's getting organized so fast.

-Andrew92

[KatDaddy]

Wow I just checked the radar! Its wrapping up S of Galveston and moving very slowly

[k4sdi]

Radar imagery suggests to me a northward movement, looks to me it might be ashore by late afternoon.

JMHO

Although now the last few scans seem to have a NW motion.

I'm using GR Level 3. I know how to save images, but does anyone know how to save the animation? I'd like to post these after lunch.

[windstorm99]

[Chacor]

New flight on the runway.

Will this flight be investigating the depression/storm soon then? I really feel that recon is needed for this one, it's getting organized so fast.

-Andrew92

Presumably this is the scheduled 1800Z fix.

[Steve]

Hard to say Andrew. northern/western Gulf States (LA, TX, Coastal MS) haven't had the same drought problems they've had up in NE Alabama and NW Georgia. If anything, it may help with some short term rainfall if it doesn't ride up south of the hardest impacted areas. Here's the link to check out the various 6 & 12 week aminations as well as the short and long term indicator blends.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[HURAKAN]

latest:



Later. Have class now.

[mattpetre]

Steering product would suggest an overall N-NW motion over the coming hours... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

this really could get interesting, too bad we don't have much time to discuss models, but at the same time I hope we don't have too much time with this over water at this point. Stuck to my guns on this system and was about 80% correct for the first time this season.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This has to be a TS based on Sat alone..Come on RECON!

[carversteve]

This has to be a TS based on Sat alone..Come on RECON!

I agree..it looks like it almost has an eye..WOW!!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Trough in Central Texas should pick it up.

And take it in what direction?

Eventually N/NE

[Chacor]

773
URNT15 KNHC 121653
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 02 20070912
164300 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164330 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164400 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +389 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164430 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +390 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164500 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0152 +393 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164530 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0152 +395 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164600 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0152 +400 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164630 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
164700 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
164730 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
164800 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
164830 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
164900 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
164930 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
165000 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
165030 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
165100 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
165130 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
165200 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 9990 +999 +000 360000 000 087 000 21
165230 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0152 +399 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Live map:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... n=02&map=1

[mattpetre]

Trough in Central Texas should pick it up.

And take it in what direction?

Eventually N/NE

Am I not correct in saying that the steering analysis doesn't entirely agree?

[carversteve]

If this has streghtened this much since last night,could this become a minumal hurricane if it stays over water for another 24 hours?

[Andrew92]

Great links Steve. I didn't fully realize that Louisiana didn't have that bad of a drought, though I did know that Texas does NOT need the rain. Still, I'm hoping this depression/storm does spend a day or 1 1/2 days over Alabama and Tennessee, just to give them some rain they need without severe flooding.

I just hope this doesn't intensify more than some think it might.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

If this has streghtened this much since last night,could this become a minumal hurricane if it stays over water for another 24 hours?

I'm wondering the same thing. I'm VERY intrigued to hear what recon finds when they investigate this depression. As I said in an earlier post, I wonder if this already has winds around 50-60 mph.

If that is the case, given its organization trend, we need this thing to hurry and get in.

-Andrew92

[carversteve]

If this has streghtened this much since last night,could this become a minumal hurricane if it stays over water for another 24 hours?

I'm wondering the same thing. I'm VERY intrigued to hear what recon finds when they investigate this depression. As I said in an earlier post, I wonder if this already has winds around 50-60 mph.

If that is the case, given its organization trend, we need this thing to hurry and get in.

-Andrew92

I agree,because it is looking good right now.