TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Meso]

O_o

[skysummit]

The 12z GFDL is a tad north at the end.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT 08L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.1 44.1 295./ 9.9
6 13.5 45.0 295./10.0
12 13.5 45.8 272./ 7.5
18 13.7 46.6 282./ 8.1
24 14.0 47.1 297./ 5.7
30 14.1 47.8 278./ 7.3
36 14.1 48.2 277./ 3.3
42 14.3 48.5 307./ 3.6
48 14.7 49.0 302./ 6.6
54 15.1 49.5 314./ 6.3
60 15.4 50.1 297./ 6.3
66 15.9 50.8 301./ 8.4
72 16.5 51.5 310./ 8.7
78 16.9 52.4 296./ 9.6
84 17.2 53.1 292./ 7.0
90 17.6 54.2 291./12.0
96 17.7 55.0 277./ 7.5
102 18.0 55.7 291./ 7.3
108 17.9 56.6 266./ 8.5
114 17.9 57.6 269./ 9.1
120 18.0 58.4 273./ 7.9
126 17.8 59.1 254./ 7.1

[KWT]

That track looks a little too close for comfort for those in the Leeward Islands and the VI/ eastern Major Antilles.

[windstorm99]

wow look at the ukmet!

[curtadams]

My, does Mesa's posted graphic look like a CMC forecast or what? Storms galore, all trying to head north.

[hurricanetrack]

It's on now- storms all over the place. No hurricanes to hit the U.S. yet, but that seems likely between now and late November.

Texas is sure getting wet- hopefully TD8 can stay away from there in the extreme long term....

[cycloneye]

TD 8 is moving south of the 11 AM forecast already.

[marcane_1973]

More south it goes it will be worse for Bahamas Florida to the Carolinas for landfall later on down the road.

[KWT]

Yep and I think the NHC will probably shift their track further south on the next advisory. I can imagine this system heading into the N.Leeward Islands and being a threat to the Virgin islands and possibly, sadly Luis, PR. i think Derek will be closer in his forecast then the NHC.

[windstorm99]

not really luis it seems right on track.Maybe a hair to the south but not much.The ridge is forcasted to weaken tommorow which at that time will allow a more pronounced wnw-nw track.

[bvigal]

Luis, I had just finished loading vis float loop and clicked the points, checking the same thing, then saw your post. Glad you put the pic on here! And I agree, it's south of forecast. Also, earlier it sucked in some SAL - I didn't realize any was still out there until I looked at the graphic

[chris_fit]

It's WAY south of the next forecast point. Looking good though!

[gatorcane]

and if that verifies a track into the Hebert box thereafter is more likely....

which doesn't guarantee but increases the chances of a South Florida hit down the road.

[cycloneye]

2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08
FLIGHT ONE
A. 14/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0108A CYCLONE
C. 13/2000Z
D. 14.0N 48.0W
E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 14/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0208A CYCLONE
C. 14/0800Z
D. 14.5N 49.5W
E. 14/1130Z TO 14/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Pojo,why these missions are going more farther east than 55w,these to the 48-49 w longituds?.

[KWT]

I'm not Pojo but aren't they flying from Barbados this time Luis hence why they are able to fly that bit further east then normally you'd expect.

[JTD]

Good point about the SAL.

It doesn't look all that great at all and is ragged at the moment but I'm sure it's temporary. One can see the dry air infiltrating the storm a bit.

[cycloneye]

Oh yes KWT I forgot that.

[storms in NC]

2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08
FLIGHT ONE
A. 14/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0108A CYCLONE
C. 13/2000Z
D. 14.0N 48.0W
E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 14/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0208A CYCLONE
C. 14/0800Z
D. 14.5N 49.5W
E. 14/1130Z TO 14/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Pojo,why these missions are going more farther east than 55w,these to the 48-49 w longituds?.

I didn't think they went past 55.Or maybe it is 50 and 49-48 is not that far If it is at 50 they can go.

[KWT]

They can probably squeeze an extra 5-7 degreesfurther east as they are flying from Barbados, which is better suited for this system given where it currently is.

[Deenac813]

So since Humberto is now taken what is the next name that this COULD be?