INTERESTING!!!!!!

[Rainband]

SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
THE MOST INTERESTING AREA IN THE TROPICS TODAY IS A COMPLEX
TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA NE TO THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. A SOUNDING FROM BELIZE CITY SHOWED LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WHILE DATA TO THE E
HAD WINDS AT THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE E UP TO 50 KT.. PROVIDING
QUITE A CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS WITH PLENTY OF TSTMS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL A LOW NEAR 19N90W WITH A
SECOND WEAKER CIRCULATION NEAR 17N88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA... LENDING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. A DRIFT TO THE N IS
LIKELY WITH THIS LARGE AREA OF WEATHER. SEE MIATWOAT FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG IS FORMING ALONG THE E COAST OF
YUCATAN AND BELIZE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 16N88W 21N86W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 18.5N84.5W.

[PTrackerLA]

It seems like the NHC is starting to jump on this system, it will be an interesting weekend for sure!

[Lindaloo]

Thanks for the interesting developments Johnathan!! We may see a cane soon.

[Rainband]

Yes and From what I hear the Bremuda high isn't going anywhere and the trof is gonna build eastward bringing whatever develops if anything into florida....oh brother...I NEED NO!!!!! MORE RAIN!!!!!!!!

[wxman57]

Visible loops do show a lower-level (maybe not the surface) circulation in the vicinity of 19N/90W this afternoon. I can't see any second weak circulation near 17N/88W. That one could have just been a couple of outflow bounaries giving the impression of a circulation earlier. And, you got me on this one:

SCATTERED STRONG IS FORMING ALONG THE E COAST OF
YUCATAN AND BELIZE"

Have to watch when that scattered strong starts appearing.

Still looks like a northerly movement toward Florida.

[Amanzi]

OH NO.. John... you may want to ask MF if you can borrow his boat!!! :o

It is really strange, because we on the east coast could really use some rain... Hang in there bud, and hopefully it will get pushed away from FL.

[Rainband]

Our local met just said a TD in a day or two is likely!!

[cycloneye]

Rainband prepare a boat in your area. :o

[Amanzi]

My thinking exactly cyc!!


What are the possiblities of the whole system getting shunted west and what would push it that way?

The further west it goes the less likely you will have to put on your diving gear :o

[Rainband]

My thinking exactly cyc!!


What are the possiblities of the whole system getting shunted west and what would push it that way?

The further west it goes the less likely you will have to put on your diving gear :o

As 57 said the edge of the bremuda high is just west of florida and the trof is edging eastward off tx and LA..so this makes anything head north into florida!! :o

[Amanzi]

OH BROTHER:o

Well hopefully you wont get dumped on big time!! Your welcome to come over to the DRY side of the "island" LOL

[wxman57]

Notice how Florida is getting dumped on rain-wise this summer? The general flow patterns in the tropics are taking disturbances in that general direction. It goes to follow, that hurricanes may head there too this year. I think Florida is in for a Cat3+ this year. Wish I knew where!

[cycloneye]

Amanzi in what part of Florida you are located? I ask because depending in which area you live this system may affect more or less.East coast of florida looks the less rain area.

[Steve]

>>the trof is edging eastward off tx and LA..so this makes anything head north into florida!!

That's anything the trof picks up. Those infamous troughs often leave behind pieces of energy that end up becoming the show. I guessed yesterday that the trof would probably pick up part of that wave running behind the MLL. I still think that's the case.

The players on the field are the Bermuda Ridge (and its SW extension), the upper trough splitting across the GOM, remnants of Carlos, the MLL, the trailing wave and the trough cutting down through LA right now.

Only thing we can say for sure is that the picture will be clearer in 36-40 hours (Sunday am).

Steve

[mf_dolphin]

Notice how Florida is getting dumped on rain-wise this summer? The general flow patterns in the tropics are taking disturbances in that general direction. It goes to follow, that hurricanes may head there too this year. I think Florida is in for a Cat3+ this year. Wish I knew where!

Aren't you just full of good news! LOL Oh well, can't win them all!

[Rainband]

<<That's anything the trof picks up. Those infamous troughs often leave behind pieces of energy that end up becoming the show. I guessed yesterday that the trof would probably pick up part of that wave running behind the MLL. I still think that's the case. >>

That makes sense..but if it develops into something there will only be one thing to get picked up :o I just hope it doesn't bomb once it gets over the GOM..high pressure overhead high sst temps...neg shear! :o :o Will be interesting for someone along the GOM.

[wx247]

Anyone heard what Dr. Lyons has said this evening?

[Rainband]

Anyone heard what Dr. Lyons has said this evening?

He hasn't been on

[wx247]

I thought he was always on during Carl and Kristina's shift? Hmmm...

[ColdFront77]

I have been saying this right along, the trough isn't too far to the north and west to have this system move more westerly or west-northwesterly, opposed to north-northwesterly or northerly.

The cold front has made progress and the Bermuda High can only move so far west with this frontal system moving toward it.

Thunderstorms in my area right now... moving northward. Even if this is indirectly related to the disturbance in the Yucatan peninsula/western Caribbean area, it is still attached to the system.