Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

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dwg71
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#501 Postby dwg71 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:33 pm

I'm amazed more showers arent coming on shore towards Houston.
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#502 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:35 pm

URNT15 KNHC 121833
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 12 20070912
182300 2824N 09500W 8430 01540 0061 +170 +000 113024 025 022 002 00
182330 2823N 09501W 8428 01537 0058 +167 +000 108023 024 026 005 00
182400 2821N 09502W 8423 01535 0058 +153 +000 104023 024 032 009 00
182430 2820N 09502W 8432 01516 0036 +173 +000 094018 020 031 006 03
182500 2818N 09503W 8430 01511 0022 +179 +000 056009 014 022 002 03
182530 2816N 09503W 8428 01511 0019 +181 +000 282014 022 023 002 00
182600 2815N 09502W 8432 01516 0038 +169 +000 269031 035 035 013 00
182630 2813N 09502W 8426 01536 0054 +167 +000 264036 037 038 014 03
182700 2812N 09502W 8410 01555 0063 +163 +000 278032 035 037 009 03
182730 2811N 09503W 8430 01540 0077 +147 +000 278027 028 035 010 00
182800 2810N 09505W 8431 01543 0073 +161 +000 285029 030 034 005 00
182830 2809N 09506W 8425 01551 0075 +163 +000 286027 027 030 002 00
182900 2807N 09507W 8428 01553 0078 +167 +000 285027 028 030 003 00
182930 2806N 09508W 8432 01554 0080 +170 +000 290027 028 032 003 00
183000 2805N 09510W 8426 01563 0084 +171 +000 294027 028 031 004 00
183030 2804N 09511W 8428 01564 0087 +172 +000 291028 029 032 003 00
183100 2803N 09512W 8428 01569 0089 +175 +000 288029 030 031 004 00
183130 2802N 09514W 8424 01572 0089 +181 +000 297027 028 029 003 00
183200 2801N 09515W 8430 01570 0092 +177 +000 295025 025 029 002 00
183230 2800N 09516W 8426 01576 0096 +174 +000 292027 028 027 002 00

A more representative sample of the storm indicates winds are sustained at about 40 to 45 mph and that in squalls you could see winds around 65 mph.

Unofficial lowest HDOB pressure of: 1001.9 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
But they usually read low.
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#503 Postby HenkL » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:38 pm

Plane crossed the center: 1002 hPa.
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#504 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:38 pm

I think the front is preventing the showers from spreading to far NW into Houston.
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Re:

#505 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:39 pm

dwg71 wrote:I'm amazed more showers arent coming on shore towards Houston.


I'm actually not surprised. The center is consolidating and when they do that all the spiral bands usually wrap closer to the center in these smaller storms.
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#506 Postby WindRunner » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:40 pm

In developing systems such as this, profiles like that are not impossible. They have to put a dropsonde down in that convection next time through to be sure, but I think that with four different values >45kts they can't completely ignore it.


And miamicanes77 . . . though it was officially and invest a few hours ago, that doesn't necessarily mean anything. This thing could have been a tropical storm for the past six to twelve hours already, especially since that 38kt ship from earlier probably was at least a half-decent representation of the system.
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#507 Postby dwg71 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:40 pm

a lot of dry air around center will prevent any rapid intensification.
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#508 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:43 pm

Somewhere around San Luis Pass and High Island later tonight, a decent call AFM?
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#509 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:44 pm

Yep i think that as well dwg71, as i said in another post I can actually see a dry slot present in the SW quadrant, though the other quadrants still look pretty decent and with this motion and set-up the strongest winds and deepest convection will be on the eastern side.
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#510 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:46 pm

URNT15 KNHC 121845
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 13 20070912
183300 2759N 09517W 8422 01578 0096 +178 +000 288026 026 026 002 00
183330 2758N 09519W 8425 01579 0096 +179 +000 293026 026 025 002 00
183400 2757N 09520W 8425 01581 0100 +178 +000 299025 026 026 001 00
183430 2756N 09521W 8424 01583 0103 +173 +000 300025 025 026 000 00
183500 2755N 09523W 8430 01579 0106 +170 +000 299024 024 025 000 00
183530 2754N 09524W 8422 01587 0108 +166 +000 301022 023 024 002 00
183600 2753N 09525W 8432 01577 0110 +165 +000 301023 023 024 002 00
183630 2751N 09527W 8428 01583 0112 +165 +000 296025 027 024 003 00
183700 2750N 09528W 8431 01581 0111 +170 +000 295022 023 025 004 00
183730 2749N 09529W 8427 01586 0112 +170 +000 300022 023 023 002 00
183800 2748N 09530W 8427 01587 0114 +170 +000 298021 023 024 001 00
183830 2747N 09532W 8424 01589 0114 +167 +000 299021 022 023 001 00
183900 2746N 09533W 8427 01588 0114 +170 +000 303019 020 022 002 00
183930 2745N 09534W 8428 01586 0115 +169 +000 304019 020 022 002 00
184000 2744N 09536W 8430 01587 0117 +165 +000 302020 021 021 002 00
184030 2743N 09537W 8426 01591 0119 +163 +000 302021 022 020 001 00
184100 2742N 09538W 8430 01588 0121 +164 +000 291021 021 021 000 00
184130 2740N 09540W 8428 01588 0121 +163 +000 295020 021 020 001 00
184200 2739N 09541W 8427 01589 0122 +160 +000 300019 020 018 002 00
184230 2738N 09542W 8432 01587 0124 +160 +000 302019 020 018 001 00
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Re:

#511 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:46 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Somewhere around San Luis Pass and High Island later tonight, a decent call AFM?


Location about right...timing may be a bit early. May linger till sometime in the morning. Who knows with no steering currents.
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Re: T.S.HUMBERTO (GOM): Discussion & Images: 2 PM page 20

#512 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:47 pm

The satellite presentation looks GREAT for a weak TS IMO. These slow-moving near shore systems can surprise. I know Erin didn't, but it tried.
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Re: T.S. HUMBERTO (GOM): RECON obs: New mission

#513 Postby dwsqos2 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:48 pm

"Eye" Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 121844
XXAA 62188 99283 70950 08285 99001 26612 28016 00016 26412 28016
92702 22004 28514 85436 18809 28020 88999 77999
31313 09608 81825
61616 AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 06
62626 EYE SPL 2826N09504W 1827 MBL WND 28515 AEV 00000 DLM WND 28
515 001873 WL150 28016 077 =
XXBB 62188 99283 70950 08285 00001 26612 11850 18809 22843 18408
21212 00001 28016 11873 30015 22843 27522
31313 09608 81825
61616 AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 06
62626 EYE SPL 2826N09504W 1827 MBL WND 28515 AEV 00000 DLM WND 28
515 001873 WL150 28016 077 =

1001 mb; surface winds of 16 knots.
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Re: T.S.HUMBERTO (GOM): Discussion & Images: 2 PM page 20

#514 Postby mattpetre » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:49 pm

Houston is going to be a mess by about 4:30 in my opinion. People aren't aware of this thing, but as the afternoon passes they are finding out and there will be a minor panic I'm afraid.
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Re: T.S.HUMBERTO (GOM): Discussion & Images: 2 PM page 20

#515 Postby dwg71 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:50 pm

mattpetre wrote:Houston is going to be a mess by about 4:30 in my opinion. People aren't aware of this thing, but as the afternoon passes they are finding out and there will be a minor panic I'm afraid.


It will be later than that, storms are having a hard time staying together over land and they are still mainly offshore, it will be after rush hour in my opinion.
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#516 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:52 pm

Surrounded by winds of less than tropical storm strength you had the following SFMR peak 10 second surface winds and rainfall:

48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
36 mm/hr (~ 1.42 in/hr)

58 knots (~ 66.7 mph)
40 mm/hr (~ 1.57 in/hr)

52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
22 mm/hr (~ 0.87 in/hr)

Just a squall where they found winds above the current advisory strength of this system.
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#517 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:56 pm

LOOKS HOW IT COILS!!

Image
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#518 Postby PhillyWX » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:56 pm

Updated TWC imagery for Humberto from 1:50 CT Tropical Update:

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... esday.html
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#519 Postby jasons2k » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:58 pm

Call it a wobble, but my latest center fix is a bit NE of the marker from earlier:

Image
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#520 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:58 pm

URNT12 KNHC 121854
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 12/18:25:50Z
B. 28 deg 17 min N
095 deg 03 min W
C. NA mb 1438 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 103 deg 029 kt
G. 028 deg 031 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 15 C/ 1519 m
J. 18 C/ 1524 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. /8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 05
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 29 KT N QUAD 18:16:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 38 KT SW QUAD 18:26:20 Z

--

URNT15 KNHC 121854
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 14 20070912
184300 2737N 09544W 8428 01590 0124 +159 +000 301020 021 018 003 00
184330 2736N 09545W 8426 01592 0123 +162 +000 302022 023 017 002 00
184400 2735N 09546W 8428 01590 0127 +156 +000 296022 023 022 003 00
184430 2734N 09548W 8427 01592 0126 +158 +000 303020 020 021 003 00
184500 2733N 09549W 8432 01586 0122 +167 +000 303019 020 017 001 00
184530 2732N 09550W 8427 01594 0121 +173 +000 304020 020 019 000 00
184600 2731N 09551W 8430 01592 0121 +173 +000 302019 020 018 001 00
184630 2729N 09553W 8427 01594 0122 +175 +000 299018 019 017 001 00
184700 2728N 09554W 8429 01591 0122 +174 +000 300017 018 015 002 00
184730 2727N 09555W 8424 01600 0124 +172 +000 303016 017 014 002 00
184800 2726N 09557W 8429 01597 0125 +173 +000 302016 017 017 000 00
184830 2725N 09558W 8427 01600 0129 +170 +000 299016 017 014 000 00
184900 2724N 09559W 8426 01597 0126 +170 +000 301016 016 015 000 00
184930 2723N 09601W 8427 01599 0127 +170 +000 303016 016 013 001 00
185000 2722N 09602W 8428 01596 0127 +170 +000 303016 017 014 000 00
185030 2721N 09603W 8428 01596 0129 +168 +000 306017 017 016 000 00
185100 2719N 09605W 8430 01595 0130 +165 +000 310017 018 015 000 00
185130 2718N 09606W 8426 01599 0129 +167 +000 311018 019 013 000 00
185200 2717N 09607W 8427 01599 0127 +174 +000 306017 018 010 001 00
185230 2716N 09609W 8427 01600 0129 +171 +000 305018 018 012 000 00

URNT15 KNHC 121904
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 15 20070912
185300 2715N 09610W 8428 01600 0131 +170 +000 306018 018 014 000 00
185330 2714N 09611W 8426 01601 0130 +169 +000 299017 017 012 000 00
185400 2713N 09613W 8428 01598 0131 +165 +000 300016 017 008 000 00
185430 2712N 09614W 8427 01601 0132 +165 +000 301016 016 007 001 00
185500 2710N 09615W 8428 01600 0131 +165 +000 298016 016 007 000 00
185530 2709N 09617W 8427 01600 0132 +164 +000 301016 016 007 000 00
185600 2708N 09618W 8415 01612 0135 +158 +000 305015 016 012 001 00
185630 2707N 09619W 8428 01598 0132 +165 +000 295014 015 014 000 00
185700 2706N 09621W 8427 01603 0134 +164 +000 299014 014 009 000 00
185730 2705N 09622W 8428 01598 0132 +167 +000 297014 014 010 000 00
185800 2704N 09623W 8424 01602 0133 +164 +000 303014 014 008 002 00
185830 2703N 09625W 8428 01600 0132 +168 +000 299013 014 008 001 00
185900 2702N 09626W 8427 01602 0132 +169 +000 292013 013 007 000 00
185930 2700N 09627W 8427 01602 0134 +165 +000 294014 014 005 001 00
190000 2659N 09628W 8428 01599 0134 +165 +000 298014 014 008 000 00
190030 2658N 09630W 8428 01604 0138 +165 +000 301013 013 004 000 03
190100 2657N 09629W 8427 01607 0135 +165 +000 297013 014 999 999 03
190130 2657N 09627W 8430 01601 0134 +165 +000 283013 013 001 001 03
190200 2657N 09626W 8426 01603 0135 +163 +000 278013 013 005 000 00
190230 2657N 09624W 8428 01600 0135 +160 +000 280013 013 009 000 00

URNT15 KNHC 121914
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 16 20070912
190300 2657N 09622W 8427 01599 0135 +162 +000 281013 014 011 000 00
190330 2657N 09620W 8428 01599 0133 +165 +000 278013 013 009 000 00
190400 2657N 09618W 8428 01598 0132 +165 +000 279013 013 009 000 00
190430 2657N 09616W 8427 01600 0132 +166 +000 279013 013 014 000 00
190500 2657N 09614W 8428 01603 0134 +164 +000 277014 014 012 000 00
190530 2657N 09612W 8427 01601 0134 +163 +000 276014 014 011 000 00
190600 2658N 09610W 8428 01597 0135 +161 +000 279014 014 009 000 00
190630 2658N 09608W 8423 01602 0135 +159 +000 273012 013 008 002 00
190700 2658N 09606W 8426 01601 0133 +163 +000 278013 013 007 000 00
190730 2658N 09604W 8430 01598 0133 +160 +000 276013 014 005 000 00
190800 2658N 09602W 8431 01594 0135 +159 +000 275013 014 007 000 00
190830 2658N 09600W 8428 01598 0136 +156 +000 277014 014 005 002 00
190900 2658N 09558W 8425 01600 0134 +160 +000 268014 014 006 000 00
190930 2658N 09556W 8428 01598 0134 +160 +000 266014 014 005 001 00
191000 2658N 09554W 8428 01599 0134 +159 +000 267014 014 009 000 00
191030 2658N 09552W 8425 01600 0135 +160 +000 268014 014 013 000 00
191100 2658N 09550W 8435 01590 0136 +157 +000 272014 016 012 000 00
191130 2658N 09548W 8427 01599 0135 +159 +000 271015 016 013 001 00
191200 2658N 09546W 8426 01601 0135 +162 +000 266017 017 015 000 00
191230 2658N 09544W 8428 01597 0135 +160 +000 263016 016 012 000 00
Last edited by Chris_in_Tampa on Wed Sep 12, 2007 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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