Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[StJoe]

doesn't look good for us here in sofla...

[SouthFLTropics]

I would caution everyone to not get too overly concerned about this system being a South Florida threat "YET". Sure, it could be a possible player in our weather next week sometime and the models do bring it in our general direction but there is a lot that can and will change between now and then. Floyd headed this way as well but then turned and went North along with countless other storms. I don't want anyone to think that I am downplaying the possibility but I think at this point in time just keep an eye on it and see what the long term synoptics shape up to be and we will get a better grip on its track by this weekend. In the meantime it wouldn't hurt for everyone to review their plans and check their supplies in their freetime. That is something we all should have done by June 1 anyway and right now is a good time to check it again.

SouthFLTropics

[windstorm99]

I would caution everyone to not get too overly concerned about this system being a South Florida threat "YET". Sure, it could be a possible player in our weather next week sometime and the models do bring it in our general direction but there is a lot that can and will change between now and then. Floyd headed this way as well but then turned and went North along with countless other storms. I don't want anyone to think that I am downplaying the possibility but I think at this point in time just keep an eye on it and see what the long term synoptics shape up to be and we will get a better grip on its track by this weekend. In the meantime it wouldn't hurt for everyone to review their plans and check their supplies in their freetime. That is something we all should have done by June 1 anyway and right now is a good time to check it again.

SouthFLTropics

Excellent advise....

[gatorcane]

should it impact South Florida looks like it would be another female -- Ingrid behind

Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma....

although only Wilma was a TRUE South Florida storm...

of course its very early to say...if anything it looks like the models may want to trend south over time as the system seems to be moving nearly due W and not gaining any lattitude yet.

[chris_fit]

should it impact South Florida looks like it would be another female -- Ingrid behind

Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma....

although only Wilma was a TRUE South Florida storm...

of course its very early to say...if anything it looks like the models may want to trend south over time as the system seems to be moving nearly due W and not gaining any lattitude yet.

Forgot Katrina?

[gatorcane]

should it impact South Florida looks like it would be another female -- Ingrid behind

Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma....

although only Wilma was a TRUE South Florida storm...

of course its very early to say...if anything it looks like the models may want to trend south over time as the system seems to be moving nearly due W and not gaining any lattitude yet.

Forgot Katrina?

Duh...I did forget her...she actually brough 100mph gusts to parts of Miami-Dade....

So yes then you have:

Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma....the 4 ladies as we like to call them.

[windstorm99]

Duh...I did forget her...she actually brough 100mph gusts to parts of Miami-Dade....

If your talking about katrina i dont think winds higher then 85mph were seen in miami dade county from katrina.The highest winds i recorded were 81mph early that morning.Maybe a few gusts yes but mostly 80-90mph winds.

[windstorm99]

[JTD]

Keeping up the talk about the storms affecting Florida being female, I have another interesting thought:

The "I" storms have a notorious history of being bad:

Ivan, Isidore, Isabel to name a few.

Judging by the history of "I" storms, it gives me concern that TD #8 could eventually be a monster and follow in the above 3 storm's footsteps.

I've called Ingrid to be the monster storm all season.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I remember another I named storm in the form of Hurricane Inez. This is going back a few years though! Also Hurricane Isabela as well.

[gatorcane]

current mean mid-level steering flow (subject to change):

[Gustywind]

current mean mid-level steering flow (subject to change):

What your throughts about it Gatorcane?

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=0

Accu way faster and stronger in getting it to the Bahamas..

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC WED SEP 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT (AL082007) 20070912 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070912 1800 070913 0600 070913 1800 070914 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 45.0W 14.0N 46.5W 14.7N 47.4W 14.8N 48.0W
BAMD 13.4N 45.0W 13.8N 46.3W 14.2N 47.2W 14.5N 48.0W
BAMM 13.4N 45.0W 13.7N 46.4W 14.2N 47.5W 14.3N 48.3W
LBAR 13.4N 45.0W 13.9N 46.7W 14.6N 48.5W 15.2N 50.4W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070914 1800 070915 1800 070916 1800 070917 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 48.9W 16.5N 51.2W 17.8N 54.0W 19.1N 57.1W
BAMD 15.0N 48.7W 16.8N 50.1W 19.2N 51.5W 21.8N 52.7W
BAMM 14.6N 49.1W 15.7N 51.1W 17.0N 53.0W 18.2N 55.2W
LBAR 16.0N 52.3W 18.2N 56.1W 20.6N 59.7W 22.7N 61.9W
SHIP 56KTS 67KTS 70KTS 71KTS
DSHP 56KTS 67KTS 70KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 45.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 43.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 41.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

SHIP is more agressive than in past runs about intensity.In this run has at 120 hours a 71 kt Hurricane.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/depressions.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&ocean=atlantic&storm=8&imagetype=move&stormNum=0

Accu way faster and stronger in getting it to the Bahamas..

Wow, what a difference from NHC! AccuWx has TD 8 to Hispaniola in a little over 3 days, while NHC doesn't even have it reaching 60W within 5 days! Big intensity difference too, with AccuWx calling for Cat 2 in 54 hours, but NHC keeping a TS still after 120 hours!

[sunnyday]

I'll be glad if and when this path changes as it is headed too close to us. I imagine the forecast path will change several times before all is said and done.

[Meso]

12z EURO

[DESTRUCTION5]

Euro says MAJOR fish..

[chris_fit]

Euro says MAJOR fish..

Kinda like it did with Felix, or was it Dean?