Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[mattpetre]

Once again I want to give a little praise to JB and take a little for myself for sticking by this storm since last Thurs. afternoon...

Ok, actually I have a few more that I would like to say were willing to stick with this storm during its entire development cycle: StormCenter, Hurakan, BigA, jeff, PTrackerLA, Extremeweatherguy, tailgater, lrak, rock, hector, johnny, and I'm sure I missed a few, but those are the folks that I felt like stuck by this storm the most during its rough times.

Let's just hope it can somehow move through quickly...

[Air Force Met]

In developing systems such as this, profiles like that are not impossible. They have to put a dropsonde down in that convection next time through to be sure, but I think that with four different values >45kts they can't completely ignore it.


And miamicanes77 . . . though it was officially and invest a few hours ago, that doesn't necessarily mean anything. This thing could have been a tropical storm for the past six to twelve hours already, especially since that 38kt ship from earlier probably was at least a half-decent representation of the system.

And I would like to add to that: Take a look at the pressure gradient! You are dealing with a rapidly deepening system which has deep convection and a pressure of 1000mb...add to that pressures of 1010-1012 mb only 40-60 miles away. That is a very sharp pressure gradient. It is totally in the realm of possibilities to get that strong of a wind at the sfc and to not have it work its way up to the flight level yet.

Again...1000 mb's and 1012 only 40-60 miles away. That is STEEP.

[O Town]

Wow he looks great on radar!

[PhillyWX]

Call it a wobble, but my latest center fix is a bit NE of the marker from earlier:

It looks like the NHC track had it going at a just left of due north track as well.

[HURAKAN]

Once again I want to give a little praise to JB and take a little for myself for sticking by this storm since last Thurs. afternoon...

Ok, actually I have a few more that I would like to say were willing to stick with this storm during its entire development cycle: StormCenter, Hurakan, BigA, jeff, PTrackerLA, Extremeweatherguy, tailgater, lrak, rock, hector, johnny, and I'm sure I missed a few, but those are the folks that I felt like stuck by this storm the most during its rough times.

Let's just hope it can somehow move through quickly...

We don't have to merit anyone. We just have to realize that it's SEPTEMBER and anything, but anything, can happen. From a hurricane impacting the Azores to a cyclone developing after looking dead. It's just the time of the year.

[whereverwx]

This storm got itself together rather quickly.

[Ed Mahmoud]

1001 mb on VDM, but not super-hero type winds.

[KWT]

Wow that radar image is pretty impressive, this could well have to be upped to about 55-60mph based on what it looks like and possibly some rather suspect recon data (though as AFM said on that thread there is a steep pressure gradient and its a small system so those winds may have been possible...indeed recon suggests we are at 55-60 KTS!!!)

Still we have a rapidly developing tropical storm, this is going to catch some people out.

[mattpetre]

Once again I want to give a little praise to JB and take a little for myself for sticking by this storm since last Thurs. afternoon...

Ok, actually I have a few more that I would like to say were willing to stick with this storm during its entire development cycle: StormCenter, Hurakan, BigA, jeff, PTrackerLA, Extremeweatherguy, tailgater, lrak, rock, hector, johnny, and I'm sure I missed a few, but those are the folks that I felt like stuck by this storm the most during its rough times.

Let's just hope it can somehow move through quickly...

We don't have to merit anyone. We just have to realize that it's SEPTEMBER and anything, but anything, can happen. From a hurricane impacting the Azores to a cyclone developing after looking dead. It's just the time of the year.

I know we don't have to give credit, but when it seems that we get discredited pretty continually when we say a storm still has a good chance of development, it just seems appropriate. There are always lots of dead posts and such while some of us continue to think something merits watching. It may not seem to the poster like a discredit, but it feels that way to the person that continues to post about that particular system... I think you know what I mean here. Just reminding everyone that many considered this storm a non-threat a long time ago.

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 121847
XXAA 62188 99287 70948 08284 99010 25200 11027 00089 24400 10528
92772 21400 10032 85505 16800 10529 88999 77999
31313 09608 81816
61616 AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 08
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2872N09482W 1818 MBL WND 10030 AEV 00000 DLM W
ND 10031 010894 WL150 10527 075 =
XXBB 62188 99287 70948 08284 00010 25200 11878 19400 22856 19000
33850 16800 44842 14000
21212 00010 11027 11965 10033 22894 10030 33842 10529
31313 09608 81816
61616 AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 08
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2872N09482W 1818 MBL WND 10030 AEV 00000 DLM W
ND 10031 010894 WL150 10527 075 =

Supposed max wind band . . . but it's on the western side of the circulation, so fairly unimpressive.
27kts/1010mb surface

[mattpetre]

Wow that radar image is pretty impressive, this could well have to be upped to about 55-60mph based on what it looks like and possibly some rather suspect recon data (though as AFM said on that thread there is a steep pressure gradient and its a small system so those winds may have been possible...indeed recon suggests we are at 55-60 KTS!!!)

Still we have a rapidly developing tropical storm, this is going to catch some people out.

Not me! I took the chance of being reprimanded to be home with my wife and kid this afternoon. Wouldn't want to be in rush hour traffic in Houston today.

[WindRunner]

Can anyone say "warm spot?"



OK, not really, but it is a warming area of convection near the center . . . probably associated with the strong convective banding mentioned by recon.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say 45 kt right now, with the 1000mb pressure.

[dwg71]

First real hint of a NNE movement over the last 1/2 hour or so. The further east the better for Houston.

[CrazyC83]

First real hint of a NNE movement over the last 1/2 hour or so. The further east the better for Houston.

Don't tell that to the people in Beaumont/Port Arthur and Lake Charles...

[dwg71]

First real hint of a NNE movement over the last 1/2 hour or so. The further east the better for Houston.

Don't tell that to the people in Beaumont/Port Arthur and Lake Charles...

To each his own Well, it would affect the fewer folks.

[mattpetre]

First real hint of a NNE movement over the last 1/2 hour or so. The further east the better for Houston.

Don't tell that to the people in Beaumont/Port Arthur and Lake Charles...

Steering would still say NNW though, what's up with that?

[dwg71]

First real hint of a NNE movement over the last 1/2 hour or so. The further east the better for Houston.

Don't tell that to the people in Beaumont/Port Arthur and Lake Charles...

Steering would still say NNW though, what's up with that?

maybe feeling first effects of trough? just a guess.

[JtSmarts]

First real hint of a NNE movement over the last 1/2 hour or so. The further east the better for Houston.

Don't tell that to the people in Beaumont/Port Arthur and Lake Charles...

Steering would still say NNW though, what's up with that?

Have you checked out Derek's forecast? He is predicting a NNE move before landfall.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97922

[dwg71]

I'd say 45 kt right now, with the 1000mb pressure.

I think they go 40KTs, just my guess.