Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[WindRunner]

I say this upcoming pass through the SE quad and subsequent NE quad hit should make the difference . . . of course, the NE quad is going to be barely before advisory time unless they fly a shorter pattern.

[dwg71]

I would still say Chambers County near the Eastern county line. Sometime around 2 - 4AM tomorrow.

[haml8]

Have you checked out Derek's forecast? He is predicting a NNE move before landfall.[/quote]

Link please?

[cpdaman]

This storm got itself together rather quickly.

BOOM

if this were 2 stall out or drifts NE there will be a rapidly developing cyclone. fortunately no pro-mets see this happening (not enought time or to close to water)

however since cyclone's in this area with low steering flow equals high unpredicatability and usually forecasts that are overly cautious may be causing many forecasters to be biting their nails

[CrazyC83]

This storm got itself together rather quickly.

BOOM

if this were 2 stall out or drifts NE there will be a rapidly developing cyclone. fortunately no pro-mets see this happening (not enought time or to close to water)

however the trend to be overly cautious may be causing many forecasters to be biting their nails

If it stays still this evening and overnight, we might have Hurricane Humberto...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 121923
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 17 20070912
191300 2658N 09542W 8428 01599 0133 +160 +000 261016 016 012 000 00
191330 2659N 09540W 8427 01598 0132 +164 +000 257016 016 014 000 00
191400 2659N 09538W 8428 01596 0133 +165 +000 255016 016 017 000 00
191430 2659N 09536W 8427 01598 0133 +162 +000 255016 017 017 000 00
191500 2659N 09534W 8428 01599 0134 +165 +000 254016 017 021 000 00
191530 2659N 09532W 8428 01598 0134 +160 +000 251016 017 020 005 00
191600 2659N 09530W 8421 01605 0136 +156 +000 253019 021 025 003 00
191630 2659N 09528W 8443 01582 0129 +167 +000 252017 018 023 006 00
191700 2659N 09526W 8427 01601 0130 +169 +000 255018 019 018 002 00
191730 2659N 09524W 8429 01597 0129 +166 +000 249019 019 018 000 00
191800 2659N 09522W 8428 01596 0130 +164 +000 249019 019 016 000 00
191830 2659N 09520W 8426 01599 0132 +164 +000 250019 019 017 000 00
191900 2659N 09518W 8428 01598 0131 +164 +000 250019 020 018 000 00
191930 2659N 09516W 8430 01599 0132 +164 +000 247019 019 019 000 00
192000 2659N 09514W 8427 01598 0130 +165 +000 244020 020 019 000 00
192030 2659N 09512W 8427 01599 0129 +166 +000 244020 020 019 000 00
192100 2659N 09510W 8428 01597 0131 +165 +000 243020 020 018 000 00
192130 2659N 09508W 8427 01598 0131 +165 +000 244020 020 020 000 00
192200 2700N 09506W 8427 01597 0130 +165 +000 242020 020 019 000 00
192230 2700N 09504W 8428 01594 0127 +165 +000 243019 019 020 000 00

URNT15 KNHC 121933
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 18 20070912
192300 2700N 09501W 8427 01597 0128 +167 +000 237019 019 017 000 00
192330 2700N 09459W 8427 01597 0127 +167 +000 235018 019 017 000 00
192400 2700N 09457W 8430 01595 0129 +165 +000 233018 018 018 000 00
192430 2700N 09455W 8427 01596 0129 +165 +000 235018 018 017 000 00
192500 2700N 09453W 8428 01591 0127 +165 +000 239018 019 017 000 00
192530 2700N 09451W 8427 01596 0128 +165 +000 240019 019 014 000 00
192600 2700N 09449W 8428 01595 0127 +165 +000 237018 019 016 000 00
192630 2700N 09447W 8428 01596 0128 +165 +000 230019 019 016 000 00
192700 2700N 09445W 8428 01596 0128 +167 +000 226019 019 016 000 00
192730 2700N 09443W 8427 01598 0130 +165 +000 226018 018 014 001 00
192800 2700N 09441W 8428 01596 0130 +165 +000 227020 021 019 000 00
192830 2700N 09439W 8426 01597 0131 +165 +000 229020 021 016 000 00
192900 2700N 09437W 8428 01598 0132 +163 +000 227019 020 018 000 00
192930 2700N 09435W 8427 01598 0131 +163 +000 223020 020 017 000 00
193000 2700N 09434W 8428 01597 0130 +165 +000 222020 020 019 000 00
193030 2700N 09432W 8428 01594 0129 +165 +000 224020 021 018 000 00
193100 2700N 09430W 8428 01596 0128 +169 +000 226020 020 018 000 03
193130 2700N 09428W 8428 01597 0129 +165 +000 223021 021 019 000 00
193200 2700N 09426W 8428 01596 0129 +161 +000 221021 022 022 000 00
193230 2701N 09424W 8427 01597 0129 +162 +000 224021 023 020 000 00

URNT15 KNHC 121943
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20070912
193300 2701N 09422W 8428 01596 0130 +160 +000 221022 023 020 000 00
193330 2701N 09420W 8422 01604 0130 +158 +000 222024 025 018 002 00
193400 2701N 09418W 8431 01592 0127 +163 +000 220024 025 023 000 00
193430 2701N 09416W 8423 01603 0130 +160 +000 219026 027 022 000 00
193500 2701N 09414W 8425 01598 0127 +165 +000 220026 027 022 000 00
193530 2701N 09412W 8425 01600 0129 +162 +000 221027 028 021 000 00
193600 2701N 09410W 8428 01594 0129 +166 +000 220027 028 019 000 00
193630 2701N 09408W 8434 01593 0130 +168 +000 216027 027 021 000 00
193700 2701N 09406W 8426 01600 0129 +170 +000 217027 027 021 000 00
193730 2701N 09403W 8415 01611 0129 +169 +000 219027 027 019 000 00
193800 2701N 09401W 8430 01597 0131 +169 +000 219026 027 020 000 00
193830 2701N 09359W 8426 01603 0131 +169 +000 221027 027 019 000 00
193900 2701N 09357W 8428 01601 0130 +170 +000 224027 028 019 000 00
193930 2701N 09355W 8428 01598 0132 +172 +000 220026 026 020 000 00
194000 2701N 09352W 8427 01601 0130 +175 +000 217025 025 020 000 00
194030 2701N 09350W 8427 01602 0130 +174 +000 219025 025 020 000 00
194100 2701N 09348W 8419 01611 0133 +170 +000 220025 025 020 000 00
194130 2701N 09346W 8427 01605 0137 +170 +000 221025 025 019 000 03
194200 2703N 09344W 8427 01605 0139 +170 +000 218025 025 999 999 03
194230 2703N 09344W 8427 01605 0135 +170 +000 215021 023 016 000 03

URNT15 KNHC 121955
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20070912
194300 2706N 09346W 8425 01601 0130 +174 +000 214020 021 019 000 00
194330 2707N 09348W 8426 01602 0130 +174 +000 208021 021 019 000 00
194400 2708N 09349W 8426 01603 0130 +175 +000 203020 021 021 000 00
194430 2710N 09351W 8427 01599 0130 +174 +000 207021 021 021 000 00
194500 2711N 09352W 8426 01602 0129 +175 +000 207022 022 019 000 00
194530 2713N 09354W 8425 01600 0129 +170 +000 205021 021 021 000 00
194600 2714N 09356W 8426 01600 0130 +170 +000 206022 022 019 000 00
194630 2715N 09357W 8427 01598 0129 +167 +000 207023 023 021 000 00
194700 2717N 09359W 8425 01601 0131 +164 +000 208023 023 022 000 00
194730 2718N 09400W 8435 01590 0132 +160 +000 207023 023 020 000 00
194800 2720N 09402W 8427 01598 0131 +159 +000 209024 024 022 000 00
194830 2721N 09403W 8428 01592 0127 +163 +000 206024 024 023 000 00
194900 2722N 09405W 8428 01595 0126 +165 +000 205024 025 022 000 00
194930 2724N 09406W 8427 01595 0128 +161 +000 204023 024 023 000 00
195000 2725N 09408W 8428 01592 0126 +161 +000 201023 024 023 000 00
195030 2726N 09409W 8426 01593 0124 +165 +000 200023 024 023 000 00
195100 2728N 09411W 8428 01590 0124 +164 +000 204024 024 024 000 00
195130 2729N 09412W 8428 01589 0123 +165 +000 208024 025 025 000 00
195200 2730N 09414W 8424 01593 0124 +162 +000 208023 024 023 000 00
195230 2732N 09415W 8426 01592 0124 +162 +000 207023 023 023 000 00

URNT15 KNHC 122003
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20070912
195300 2733N 09417W 8436 01582 0124 +165 +000 212024 025 024 000 00
195330 2734N 09418W 8423 01595 0122 +162 +000 211024 024 025 000 00
195400 2736N 09419W 8431 01586 0123 +160 +000 210025 025 026 000 00
195430 2737N 09421W 8428 01587 0122 +160 +000 206026 026 026 000 00
195500 2738N 09422W 8428 01588 0121 +161 +000 204027 027 026 000 00
195530 2739N 09423W 8428 01586 0118 +164 +000 204027 027 027 000 00
195600 2740N 09425W 8428 01585 0118 +162 +000 205027 027 026 002 00
195630 2742N 09426W 8427 01588 0117 +166 +000 208026 027 027 001 00
195700 2743N 09427W 8426 01587 0117 +166 +000 207028 030 026 000 00
195730 2744N 09429W 8422 01591 0115 +164 +000 210029 030 027 000 00
195800 2745N 09430W 8425 01586 0115 +162 +000 211029 030 029 000 00
195830 2747N 09431W 8428 01582 0115 +160 +000 214030 031 033 001 00
195900 2748N 09433W 8427 01583 0112 +163 +000 214032 032 032 004 00
195930 2749N 09434W 8427 01581 0117 +152 +000 211031 032 032 008 00
200000 2750N 09435W 8431 01575 0114 +155 +000 221029 030 032 009 00
200030 2751N 09437W 8423 01580 0110 +158 +000 218030 032 034 002 00
200100 2753N 09438W 8432 01573 0107 +160 +000 226027 028 032 002 00
200130 2754N 09439W 8427 01575 0106 +161 +000 226027 028 034 003 00
200200 2755N 09441W 8413 01586 0108 +153 +000 218027 031 034 007 00
200230 2756N 09442W 8457 01543 0111 +146 +000 236025 026 044 038 00

Nearing center.

[TexWx]

i'm not really seeing any NE drift....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[mattpetre]

Just a quick map I've drawn up based on memory of where 90L originated and traveled over the past 6 or 7 days... for those that may not have followed it as closely.

Just wanted to let those that are just checking on this storm to see where it had originated (btw, it was a disorganized mess much of this time.)

[chris_fit]

That's an amazing loop. I would certainly call that Rapid Intensification.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I said this morning that a slight NE drift would begin. I'm seeing that right now.

[TexWx]

Hmmm..

[Brent]

I wasn't even watching this that closely last night and now... WOW.

Much more impressive than Erin and Gabrielle.

[bbadon]

I agree Kerry, I see NE drift also

[mattpetre]

I said this morning that a slight NE drift would begin. I'm seeing that right now.

I still say landfall around 6 just W of Galveston...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Very little activity on the west side of the system. Flooding rains will be from HOU east especially from Golden triangle eastward.

[PhillyWX]

Today's GFS is suggesting Humberto's remnants may get picked up by a trough digging down into the Northern Plains on Friday and carried up into the Mid-Atlantic along the advancing cold frontal boundary. Unfortunately, it will take 48 hours for the storm's remnants per the GFS to get near Memphis.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048m.gif

[Derek Ortt]

link to my forecast

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092007forecast.html

[HURAKAN]

WOW!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm just wondering, even though the storm will make landfall in Texas, where will the huge rain band in the GOM end up?

[dwg71]

Very little activity on the west side of the system. Flooding rains will be from HOU east especially from Golden triangle eastward.

If it gets much further east, Houston will get very little rain.