Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[mattpetre]

link to my forecast

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092007forecast.html

Derek,

I respect your opinion on storms tremendously, but do you really believe Humberto won't make landfall sometime tonight?

[PhillyWX]

Very little activity on the west side of the system. Flooding rains will be from HOU east especially from Golden triangle eastward.

This is a lopsided system. If this storm were 50 miles east it could have been a different story but its proximity to the coast COULD spare Houston's western burbs somewhat.

[southerngale]

link to my forecast

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092007forecast.html

You don't think it's going to get any stronger than 40mph? NHC has it at 45mph now.

[dwg71]

[quote="HURAKAN"]WOW!!!

It looks more impressive with the swath of dry air coming in from the west.

[Stormcenter]

I said this morning that a slight NE drift would begin. I'm seeing that right now.

This radar loop confirms the NE drift and I mean a drift. It is not in any hurry to go anywhere fast right now.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... p&loop=yes

[JonathanBelles]

link to my forecast

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092007forecast.html

Derek,

I respect your opinion on storms tremendously, but do you really believe Humberto won't make landfall sometime tonight?

Im not Derek, but I do agree with his forecast. I think landfall will occur mid morning tomorrow (4a-8a).

[KWT]

It does look really impressive Hurakan. As dwg71 said it looks really impressive thanks to the dry air being ingested into the western quadrant from Texas. Still its got a good structure and that Sat.picture shows that really nicely, would expect 50-55mph from the next advisory based on the improving Sat.presentation.

[Air Force Met]

I said this morning that a slight NE drift would begin. I'm seeing that right now.

I still say landfall around 6 just W of Galveston...

Not going to happen. Landfall will be after midnight at the earliest. In order for it to make landfall at 6...it would have to move at 20 kts. It's drifting now.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Very little activity on the west side of the system. Flooding rains will be from HOU east especially from Golden triangle eastward.

If it gets much further east, Houston will get very little rain.

Correct!

[feederband]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[galvestontx13]

its just an inner wobble. I dont think its making the northeast move yet

[mattpetre]

I said this morning that a slight NE drift would begin. I'm seeing that right now.

I still say landfall around 6 just W of Galveston...

Not going to happen. Landfall will be after midnight at the earliest. In order for it to make landfall at 6...it would have to move at 20 kts. It's drifting now.

Seems that I must be interpreting the steering currents incorrectly at this point. Which level should I be looking at? 200-700mb? 500mb? Just trying to learn on this one...

[LJR]

The weather channel just said that some models have this thing going south then back to the same places. other models differ.


This is only speculation.

[feederband]

its just an inner wobble. I dont think its making the northeast move yet

First of all welcome...maybe more north...

[KatDaddy]

No way but if it did the TX and LA Coast would be faced with a major hurricane.

[jhamps10]

The weather channel just said that some models have this thing going south then back to the same places. other models differ.


This is only speculation.

they actually said that on-air!!!! Great, TWC is starting to act like foxnews now.

[mattpetre]

If this does take 12 or more hours to come ashore, I'm going to be exhausted tomorrow... maybe now is the time for a two or three hour nap.

I find it rather funny that our local mets and even TWC were pretty much saying the tropics were quiet last night. We all knew better. The only thing they stated last night though was there was a little flare-up of convection in the ITCZ... I have to say at least they weren't overhyping things at that point.

[feederband]

The weather channel just said that some models have this thing going south then back to the same places. other models differ.


This is only speculation.

they actually said that on-air!!!! Great, TWC is starting to act like foxnews now.

Yeah I've beeen hearing them both talk about it stalling inland and then coming back into the gulf...

[HurricaneBelle]

The weather channel just said that some models have this thing going south then back to the same places. other models differ.


This is only speculation.

they actually said that on-air!!!! Great, TWC is starting to act like foxnews now.

Yeah I've beeen hearing them both talk about it stalling inland and then coming back into the gulf...

Well, we don't Juan-t that to happen.

[PhillyWX]

The weather channel just said that some models have this thing going south then back to the same places. other models differ.


This is only speculation.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

There are a couple of options in the model plot. One is NE through the Ohio Valley and eventually out into the Atlantic. The rest of the guidance is taking it back around through MS and back into the Gulf. We could see an Ivan type scenario where a piece of Humberto's remnant circulation splits off from the main remnant low and tracks back into the Gulf. The GFS seems to hint at that, as some energy travels east, caught up along a trough digging down from the North on Friday, and some energy gets cut off and travels back south.

Watch how the moisture splits apart in these three maps of the GFS below. I'm not saying that it will happen but it's something the model is hinting at.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif