Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[CrazyC83]

I'd say 50 kt right now with the data available.

[teal61]

a 40 image loop. can pick up the movement a little better


http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=1

[mattpetre]

One of my posts disappeared... I was just asking if anyone else agreed that this would come ashore before Midnight tonight? Was the post somehow in violation or just a glitch in the system. I appeared to be temporarily locked from the forum too. I try very hard to abide by the rules of Storm2k.

I'm guessing just a glitch on my end.. sorry about that

Nerves are getting a little wrangled with Humberto ramping up still and such a high degree of uncertainty hanging over things.

[Tireman4]

They are closing the Houston Community College at 4 pm today.

[Stormcenter]

It has wobbled slightly NW in the last few frames, so overall, the movement has been straight towards Galveston since I placed my marker this morning:

I've noticed that as well.

It is really hard to tell because it's not moving fast but I would stick with a general N to NNE movement. IMO I guess we can call this "radar watch" instead of "wobble watch".

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... p&loop=yes

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

I would go with a N or NNW movement right now, IMO. It doesn't make a whole lot of difference though. Galveston still looks like the main target either way.

[PhillyWX]

wow -- this thing is getting its act together.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 122043
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20070912
203300 2914N 09410W 8435 01580 0124 +159 +000 146021 022 029 000 00
203330 2914N 09412W 8425 01590 0124 +156 +000 144021 021 029 000 00
203400 2914N 09414W 8431 01584 0123 +158 +000 142020 021 029 000 00
203430 2914N 09416W 8426 01589 0122 +158 +000 140021 022 028 000 00
203500 2914N 09418W 8430 01584 0120 +160 +000 140022 022 028 000 00
203530 2914N 09420W 8428 01585 0118 +160 +000 137023 023 026 002 00
203600 2914N 09420W 8428 01585 0118 +160 +000 136023 024 027 001 03
203630 2914N 09424W 8422 01586 0119 +156 +000 129023 024 027 001 03
203700 2914N 09426W 8428 01581 0118 +155 +000 125025 025 030 000 00
203730 2913N 09428W 8430 01581 0117 +156 +000 126026 026 032 000 00
203800 2913N 09430W 8424 01586 0116 +156 +000 123026 026 030 000 00
203830 2912N 09432W 8430 01576 0115 +155 +000 119025 027 029 000 00
203900 2912N 09434W 8426 01582 0116 +155 +000 116026 026 029 001 00
203930 2911N 09436W 8430 01574 0115 +153 +000 110028 030 029 002 00
204000 2911N 09438W 8429 01574 0113 +156 +000 106029 030 033 001 03
204030 2911N 09440W 8431 01572 0110 +160 +000 111031 032 034 000 03
204100 2912N 09442W 8432 01573 0109 +161 +000 111031 032 034 000 03
204130 2913N 09444W 8424 01581 0107 +165 +000 111031 031 035 000 00
204200 2915N 09446W 8426 01579 0108 +163 +000 111031 031 035 000 00
204230 2915N 09448W 8424 01584 0110 +165 +000 110030 031 999 999 03

[teal61]

From the loop i posted above it looks to be moving just a hair east of due north, looks like the west end of Galveston Is over to Galveston if it keeps up the present movement. You can also see the banding eye forming..if this had another 24hours over water....yeow!

[btangy]

There are some mini-supercells to the E of Galveston right now. The one nearest to Galveston has some rotation clearly evident in it, so could see some tornadoes in the outer rainbands coming ashore in the next few hours. SPC has issued a slight risk for this region.

[Johnny]

JB just posted an update....he's thinking this could possibly make hurricane status and Galveston looks like the target.

[CrazyC83]

There are some mini-supercells to the E of Galveston right now. The one nearest to Galveston has some rotation clearly evident in it, so could see some tornadoes in the outer rainbands coming ashore in the next few hours. SPC has issued a slight risk for this region.

A tornado watch may bee needed soon as well.

[Brent]

45 kt(50 mph) at 5pm, projected to reach 55 kt(65 mph) in 12 hours.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA.

[CrazyC83]

45 kt(50 mph) at 5pm, projected to reach 55 kt(65 mph) in 12 hours.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA.

I'd be thinking about a Hurricane Watch on top of the Tropical Storm Warning with that forecast...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Looks like no movement in last few minutes

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 122053
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20070912
204300 2914N 09449W 8431 01573 0107 +160 +000 105028 028 036 000 03
204330 2913N 09451W 8427 01574 0104 +161 +000 104029 030 037 000 00
204400 2912N 09452W 8428 01571 0103 +158 +000 102030 030 037 000 00
204430 2911N 09454W 8428 01572 0095 +168 +000 099030 030 038 000 00
204500 2909N 09455W 8428 01569 0093 +169 +000 093029 030 049 000 00
204530 2908N 09457W 8427 01566 0094 +164 +000 086029 029 037 000 00
204600 2907N 09459W 8423 01572 0094 +161 +000 081029 030 038 006 00
204630 2906N 09500W 8431 01561 0094 +158 +000 074029 030 043 011 00
204700 2905N 09502W 8433 01555 0104 +140 +000 072031 033 043 024 00
204730 2903N 09504W 8424 01565 0106 +135 +000 067038 041 044 029 03
204800 2902N 09505W 8395 01598 0107 +137 +000 066034 043 999 999 05
204830 2900N 09504W 8449 01543 0108 +143 +000 083026 028 045 027 00
204900 2859N 09503W 8425 01567 0096 +155 +000 082026 030 035 006 00
204930 2858N 09502W 8429 01558 0093 +156 +000 080026 027 037 007 00
205000 2857N 09501W 8426 01560 0087 +160 +000 080026 027 038 009 00
205030 2855N 09500W 8428 01558 0082 +163 +000 084020 021 037 008 03
205100 2854N 09459W 8431 01553 0080 +164 +000 089023 025 035 007 00
205130 2852N 09459W 8428 01556 0076 +168 +000 088024 025 034 004 03
205200 2851N 09458W 8428 01549 0071 +170 +000 083025 025 034 000 00
205230 2849N 09458W 8426 01547 0069 +167 +000 082027 029 036 000 00

49 knot SFMR peak 10 second surface wind. No rain reported.
If that were representative of the storm, that would indicate sustained winds near 55 mph at the surface. Using the 30 second data on either side of it, you would come up with 50 mph sustained winds at the surface.

[Brent]

THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION OF HUMBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE CORE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DO NOT YET REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...BUT SFMR DATA...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHIP
REPORTS...SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. THERE WERE A FEW
HIGHER SFMR WIND REPORTS IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...BUT TWO DROPSONDES IN THAT BAND DID NOT CONFIRM THOSE
HIGHER WIND ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. THE
PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER WATER...AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT HUMBERTO WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME OVER WATER TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH.

[RL3AO]

BUT TWO DROPSONDES IN THAT BAND DID NOT CONFIRM THOSE
HIGHER WIND ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.

Whoops.

[bocadude86]

I'm a tad surprised they didnt issue a hurricane watch just to be on the safe side.

[mattpetre]

If my solution from a few days ago verifies this will be a minimal Cat 1 at landfall... ooops, that would be just east of Corpus though... hmmmm