Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[PTrackerLA]

Doesn't seem to be moving much at all and with such a tiny core I would give this a 20% shot at reaching cane status provided it stays offshore through the rest of today.

[jasons2k]

I would not be surpsed if this is one that isn't declared before LF but they find in the post-analysis that it was, like Cindy. The radar presentation shows the structure is really tightening-up and as a general rule intensifying systems will be worse than weakening ones.

[teal61]

JB just posted an update....he's thinking this could possibly make hurricane status and Galveston looks like the target.

I like Joe so don't get me wrong, but even I couldnt miss that target. Hurricane...hmmm maybe if it lingers offshore a bit longer a minimal hurricane is possible but I don't really know about that. It certainly is ramping up pretty fast though.

[PTrackerLA]

Check out the latest IR shots from GHCC. An eye-like feature appears to be developing although it's not completely surrounded by a CDO.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I would not be surpsed if this is one that isn't declared before LF but they find in the post-analysis that it was, like Cindy. The radar presentation shows the structure is really tightening-up and as a general rule intensifying systems will be worse than weakening ones.

Agree. Given the warm waters of the GOM
this could easily be a category 1 hurricane hitting galveston.
With that eyewall banding especially.

[mattpetre]

JB just posted an update....he's thinking this could possibly make hurricane status and Galveston looks like the target.

I like Joe so don't get me wrong, but even I couldnt miss that target. Hurricane...hmmm maybe if it lingers offshore a bit longer a minimal hurricane is possible but I don't really know about that. It certainly is ramping up pretty fast though.

But JB was predicting this 6 days ago, and I was sticking with him on it and thinking more of a Corpus storm, but not too far off...

BTW, when things get heavy here in Houston I will no longer post about things that don't really matter... at that point it will be about the storm and its effects only. I tried very hard throughout my workday to warn people that this could be bad, but no one and I mean no one was hearing it... I hope it doesn't have any consequences till after rush hour at least... looks much better for that now.

[Ivanhater]

We gotta looper...

[Extremeweatherguy]

no offense, but I think the latest NHC track is too far east. The storm is clearly (based on radar) heading nearly due north right now and looks to be headed toward Galveston. I really do not think this will turn NE and hit the right end of Galveston bay (east of Galveston) as they have forecasted..because this storm would need to start making a sharp NE turn right now for that to happen (which it is not doing).

latest radar loop: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 122103
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20070912
205300 2848N 09458W 8428 01544 0068 +162 +000 082027 028 035 001 00
205330 2846N 09457W 8427 01542 0062 +165 +000 081030 032 035 003 03
205400 2844N 09457W 8427 01534 0067 +149 +000 086032 032 040 011 00
205430 2843N 09457W 8437 01517 0062 +143 +000 092029 032 045 021 00
205500 2841N 09457W 8431 01522 0046 +160 +000 083029 031 031 007 00
205530 2839N 09457W 8423 01521 0036 +164 +000 088029 030 033 004 00
205600 2838N 09457W 8430 01503 0035 +149 +000 087029 030 038 010 00
205630 2836N 09457W 8432 01493 0004 +178 +000 089019 025 041 006 00
205700 2834N 09457W 8427 01492 9995 +184 +000 078006 009 021 004 03
205730 2833N 09456W 8424 01496 9994 +188 +000 271012 017 014 004 03
205800 2831N 09456W 8432 01499 0006 +184 +000 259025 027 023 004 03
205830 2830N 09454W 8428 01511 0022 +172 +000 250028 030 033 008 03
205900 2829N 09453W 8429 01518 0038 +162 +000 241032 035 034 008 00
205930 2827N 09452W 8427 01524 0050 +154 +000 235031 031 030 008 00
210000 2826N 09450W 8416 01541 0052 +159 +000 228029 033 028 008 00
210030 2825N 09449W 8428 01533 0051 +167 +000 226031 033 027 004 00
210100 2824N 09448W 8434 01529 0054 +169 +000 229030 031 032 003 00
210130 2823N 09446W 8426 01542 0059 +168 +000 228032 033 033 003 00
210200 2822N 09445W 8430 01540 0065 +167 +000 225034 035 033 002 00
210230 2821N 09444W 8428 01546 0072 +162 +000 222039 040 031 002 00

Unofficial lowest HDOB pressure of 999.4mb.

[niner21]

Has been nice all day up in the Woodlands except for the morning spitting rains.

The radar has that thing looking like a "mini- cane" at this time.

Are there any factual wind observations out there??? I see a bunch of "I bet's" and such but not many facts.

This better get away by next weekend!! I have plans! Stupid nature!!

[Derek Ortt]

recon fixes show a NNE heading

[mattpetre]

no offense, but I think the latest NHC track is too far east. The storm is clearly (based on radar) heading nearly due north right now and looks to be headed toward Galveston. I really do not think this will turn NE and hit the right end of Galveston bay as they have forecasted..because this storm would need to start making a sharp NE turn right now for that to happen (which it is not doing).

latest radar loop: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

I still think the chances of a slight NNW turn are just as likely still... we shall see, but I believe in the steering currents after watching Dean and Felix...

I can only imagine how I'd be feeling right now if this were a Dean or Felix... whew..

[niner21]

We gotta looper...

Oh this stinks!!!

What kind of time frame is that re-landfall?? 5-6 days?

Go Away Humberto and your 'chark!! (anyone watch poker on tv???)

[Extremeweatherguy]

recon fixes show a NNE heading

even heading NNE, this would still not follow the forecast track. It would have to move more NE for that...based on what I have been studying on radar.

[CrazyC83]

Wouldn't Humberto weaken to like nothing with such a large loop?

[Stormcenter]

recon fixes show a NNE heading

even heading NNE, this would still not follow the forecast track. It would have to move more NE for that...based on what I have been studying on radar.

I would have stick with the NNE heading per this radar loop. To be honest with you
it's not going anywhere fast so it's hard to tell.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... p&loop=yes

[Brent]

Wouldn't Humberto weaken to like nothing with such a large loop?

Yes but if it gets back over water it could always strengthen again... and even if it doesn't, it'd be more RAIN for those areas that don't need it.

[pojo]

The recon missions have had so many problems this year it is amazing.

we can't help that.

[green eyed girl]

Wouldn't Humberto weaken to like nothing with such a large loop?

I was wondering the same thing. I wonder where they came up with that scenario!

[mattpetre]

I was trying to check the latest Quikscat for verification (of the Quikscat of course...) and it seems to have missed Humberto altogether on this pass... something to keep an eye on for the reliability of Quikscat with weaker storms and depressions... just curious.