Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[mattpetre]

Wouldn't Humberto weaken to like nothing with such a large loop?

I was wondering the same thing. I wonder where they came up with that scenario!

"They" are just computer models crunching numbers... just a plausible scenario due to the physics.

[CrazyC83]

I would have put out a Hurricane Watch from San Luis Pass to Cameron with the current forecast...

[jasons2k]

Updated center fix from NHC @ 5PM EDT
I circled the center based on radar
Marker still there from this AM

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KNHC 122113
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 12/20:57:10Z
B. 28 deg 34 min N
094 deg 57 min W
C. 850 mb 1419 m
D. 45 kt
E. 357 deg 9 nm
F. 067 deg 042 kt
G. 357 deg 011 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 16 C/ 1526 m
J. 19 C/ 1525 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 19
MAX FL WIND 45 KT NE QUAD 20:17:50 Z
PARTIAL BANDING EYEWALL

---

URNT15 KNHC 122113
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20070912
210300 2819N 09442W 8426 01553 0076 +163 +000 219037 038 030 001 00
210330 2818N 09441W 8430 01550 0080 +162 +000 217040 040 029 002 00
210400 2817N 09440W 8428 01556 0079 +166 +000 217039 039 027 001 00
210430 2816N 09439W 8434 01552 0082 +168 +000 221039 040 028 000 00
210500 2815N 09437W 8428 01561 0085 +170 +000 221038 039 028 001 00
210530 2815N 09437W 8428 01561 0088 +168 +000 223038 038 031 001 00
210600 2813N 09435W 8414 01578 0088 +168 +000 227033 039 037 005 00
210630 2812N 09433W 8428 01568 0095 +163 +000 231037 039 037 003 00
210700 2810N 09432W 8424 01573 0096 +167 +000 228035 035 035 000 00
210730 2809N 09431W 8423 01577 0098 +167 +000 228033 034 034 001 00
210800 2808N 09429W 8426 01572 0105 +158 +000 228031 033 035 007 00
210830 2807N 09428W 8430 01570 0114 +145 +000 223031 034 038 011 00
210900 2806N 09427W 8427 01576 0117 +145 +000 222031 032 034 012 00
210930 2805N 09426W 8426 01577 0110 +156 +000 225028 030 033 006 00
211000 2804N 09424W 8427 01580 0114 +151 +000 222031 033 031 006 00
211030 2803N 09423W 8428 01579 0109 +161 +000 217032 033 032 006 00
211100 2801N 09422W 8429 01576 0111 +159 +000 216033 033 033 010 00
211130 2800N 09420W 8422 01585 0123 +143 +000 223035 037 037 014 00
211200 2759N 09419W 8430 01578 0122 +146 +000 229036 038 035 014 00
211230 2758N 09418W 8430 01579 0123 +147 +000 223038 038 037 016 00

---

About to hit center again.

[galvestontx13]

Updated center fix from NHC @ 5PM EDT
I circled the center based on radar
Marker still there from this AM

I think that track is to far east and is going to give people of houston a false sense of security. not good

[carversteve]

Is it just me or is this thing moving ne...almost easterly??What little it is moving

[JonathanBelles]

viewtopic.php?p=1630833#p1630833

forecast posted...I want criticism.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Stationary.

[jasons2k]

The other concern I have is a decent amount of beach erosion. With Humberto barely moving, there is/will be onshore flow right into Galveston for several hours to come.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The recon missions have had so many problems this year it is amazing.

we can't help that.

We were both right/wrong on something a couple of weeks ago, where the HH fly Cuban airspace.


They normally don't, but per a MSgt Bynon, (who e-mailed a response to a question I sent) they got special permission from the Cuban govt. for a flight during Charley.

[njweather]

Oh man...

I live just south of Houston (in the Greater Houston area) and the radar shows Humberto swirling around one hour away...

Needless to say, I'm quite worried, as the Houston entire area is ALREADY FLOODED FROM STORMS THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEK.

[DrewFL]

[teal61]

This is about a 3 and a half hour loop. Gives you a much better idea about movement.


http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

Although the last few frame give the impression of a west or northwest jog. Hard to tell for sure though. Recon fixes indicate a NNE movement though.

[PTrackerLA]

Anyone notice the cone has shifted to include Cameron Parish in Louisiana? If this were to go that far east we'd be looking at a cane for sure and that area DOES NOT need anything like that after Rita.

[Stratosphere747]

Stationary.

Could be an indication that it may be about to move towards the N/NNE?

[mattpetre]

Stationary.

Could be an indication that it may be about to move towards the N/NNE?

From all the steering products, I would still think due N or NNW in the relatively long haul it has to go, although stationary is not out of the question.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner:

Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect
Inland tropical storm warning in effect until 700am Thursday.
Flash Flood Watch in effect until 700pm Thursday
Tropical Storm force conditions will be moving onshore shortly

Discussion:

Humberto continues to intensify this afternoon and at rapid rate. Winds have increased to near 50mph and a continued increase in winds to near 55-60mph are possible before landfall. Humberto is very well organized on the HGX radar and continues to exhibit a classic tropical storm. The track has shifted slightly east this afternoon with the track now through the W end of Galveston Island and then through Galveston Bay then NNE to near Lufkin by late Thursday.

Impacts:

Rainfall and flooding will be the main impacts. Expect rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches widespread along the track of the center and to the east of the center with isolated amounts upwards of 15 inches. The greatest rainfall will fall along and E of a line from Freeport to Houston and eastward.

Winds of sustained speeds of 55-65mph will be felt along the coast of Galveston tonight and across Galveston Bay early Thursday. Wind gust of 40-45mph can be expected over Harris County late tonight into early Thursday.

Tides are forecast to run 2.0-3.0 above normal with a few points reaching up to 4.0 feet above normal. The 4.0 foot level is very near coastal flooding problems and we may see some coastal flooding issues at the Thursday morning high tide.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible within the feeder bands tonight.

Actions:

HCOEM is fully activated at this time
State EOC is fully activated.

[galvestontx13]

This is about a 3 and a half hour loop. Gives you a much better idea about movement.


http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

Although the last few frame give the impression of a west or northwest jog. Hard to tell for sure though. Recon fixes indicate a NNE movement though.

great loop thank you.
almost stationary. I believe it going north, with wobbles that look like it is moving east or sometimes even west but they are just wobbles

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 122125
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20070912
211300 2757N 09417W 8423 01587 0126 +143 +000 214033 035 035 013 00
211330 2756N 09415W 8429 01580 0126 +143 +000 214034 038 034 016 00
211400 2755N 09414W 8425 01586 0133 +135 +000 222037 037 047 023 00
211430 2754N 09413W 8427 01586 0134 +136 +000 213037 040 044 025 00
211500 2753N 09412W 8428 01586 0127 +149 +000 207033 034 033 010 00
211530 2752N 09410W 8427 01588 0122 +156 +000 209031 032 031 005 00
211600 2750N 09409W 8418 01595 0122 +158 +000 211032 034 027 008 00
211630 2749N 09408W 8432 01583 0125 +157 +000 217030 031 027 004 00
211700 2748N 09407W 8424 01592 0121 +164 +000 219030 030 028 004 00
211730 2747N 09405W 8428 01590 0122 +165 +000 219028 028 024 004 00
211800 2746N 09404W 8429 01589 0123 +163 +000 219028 028 024 003 00
211830 2745N 09403W 8428 01589 0125 +159 +000 223028 029 025 006 00
211900 2744N 09401W 8428 01590 0126 +159 +000 225028 029 026 007 00
211930 2743N 09400W 8431 01588 0126 +159 +000 221029 029 026 007 00
212000 2741N 09359W 8424 01594 0126 +158 +000 222027 027 026 006 00
212030 2740N 09358W 8430 01587 0126 +160 +000 219027 028 024 005 00
212100 2739N 09356W 8427 01592 0126 +164 +000 220029 029 022 002 00
212130 2738N 09355W 8428 01592 0125 +166 +000 221029 030 023 001 00
212200 2737N 09354W 8426 01594 0126 +164 +000 222028 028 022 002 00
212230 2736N 09352W 8432 01587 0123 +165 +000 218027 028 024 002 00

I'll post one more set of HDOBs and then I'm out for the night.