Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[mattpetre]

Well, I've got a sneaking suspicion that the wave in the E. GOM currently may be looking to wander and do a little developing of it's own on the heels of TD9. Just curious if anyone else is believing this is a possibility?

[x-y-no]

Not so easy for another TD to form in such close proximity to TD9. They'd be competing for inflow and 9's outflow would shear the other area.

[mattpetre]

Not so easy for another TD to form in such close proximity to TD9. They'd be competing for inflow and 9's outflow would shear the other area.

I'm thinking more of when TD9 moves inland and the chances of this drifting in the GOM seem moderate at this point... perhaps another depression in a couple of days... just a thought, not real bullish on it, but you never know. If it did happen to form, I'd be thinking more of a W. FL. threat this time, but you're probably right that all the conditions really aren't in place, but SSTs won't be a problem, and the shear is much less than when 90L first began its journey. We'll just have to see how much gusto this wave has in it. 90L seemed to have much more persistance than most every thougt. JB was pretty good on that one and I had fun agreeing with him this time.

[mattpetre]

I still see this forming into something... anyone else?

[AnnularCane]

I don't see anything in that area.

[RL3AO]

I see some thunderstorms over Florida but other wise I see nada in the East part of the GOM.

[mattpetre]

I'm thinking the wave in the E. GOM and the storms over FL could make another interesting event in GOM by mid next week, but maybe I'm reaching on this one.

[Buck]

I think that there is a good chance that the next depression/cyclone we get in the gulf will have originated elsewhere.

[CrazyC83]

That looks like the remnants of the old 92L...maybe another Invest reviving itself? Note that is not far from where a potential namesake storm formed in 1995 (that would be Jerry)...

[mattpetre]

If Humberto were to drop back into the GOM in a couple of days per some models, it may be very difficult to discern whether a storm were caused by its remnant or this small wave I'm talking about... However, I do have a feeling there will be a little more homebrew action to occur before we have to worry about future Ingrid...

[Sanibel]

Nothing out there. This usually doesn't happen for the reasons explained by x-y-no.

[CrazyC83]

Nothing out there. This usually doesn't happen for the reasons explained by x-y-no.

We said the same to what is now Humberto (and nearly a hurricane) last night at this time...

[lrak]

whats this talk of decoupling of Humberto? What's it mean? And will it go back out into the GOM like some of the remnants of Felix in the BOC?

Steve had something going in the Humberto thread but it was locked.

Thanks

Karl

[jasons2k]

whats this talk of decoupling of Humberto? What's it mean? And will it go back out into the GOM like some of the remnants of Felix in the BOC?

Steve had something going in the Humberto thread but it was locked.

Thanks

Karl

Decoupling is when the system splits in half, with the mid-level center getting carried NE by the trough, and the LLC splitting off and stalling and eventually getting pushed S/SW by the ridge building back in. This happened with Ivan. It's also not unique to tropical cyclones.

[lrak]

Do any of the models indicate this happening? I don't have the resources to check on my own

thanks jschlitz


Karl

[gboudx]

Do any of the models indicate this happening? I don't have the resources to check on my own

thanks jschlitz


Karl

Yes. Some models have hinted at a loopty-loop for a few runs now. The 12z GFS had it looping back from near Mobile. I think the UKMET had it looping back near New Orleans. But these were 12z runs. I'd rather wait on the 0z runs.

[Dean4Storms]

I see the 12z runs of CMC, MM5FSU, GFS, NOGAPS all wanting to close off a low in the SW Carib. by Monday/Tues. of next week. With this many jumping on board I do believe this will take over as the next player once the UL shear gets done with TD8. The CMC and I believe it was the MM5FSU deepen the system rapidly and move it off on a northerly course.

[lrak]

Do any of the models indicate this happening? I don't have the resources to check on my own

thanks jschlitz


Karl

Yes. Some models have hinted at a loopty-loop for a few runs now. The 12z GFS had it looping back from near Mobile. I think the UKMET had it looping back near New Orleans. But these were 12z runs. I'd rather wait on the 0z runs.

Wow, that would be really something to see. I checked out Stom2k homepage and it shows three models doing the loopty-loop

What time will the 0z be done? Please don't say 0z

Thanks

[Dean4Storms]

There will also be alot of UL shear over most of the northern half of the GOM once that front drops into the Gulf. The Gulf will be closed for business for a while next week.

[gatorcane]

YEs I am watching it -- could be something down the road for sure.