Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Stormcenter]

The latest radar loop leaves me with no doubt in my mind that this will come ashore west of the 4pm track..probably right over Galveston island and NOT east of it. The storm also looks to be expanding some, IMO...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

But it's not moving much if any so how can you be so sure? It won't make much difference.

[Stratosphere747]

Yeah, I'm not sure how folks are really tracking this with the radar. I've been having trouble all day as the center is not easily located on radar.

[mattpetre]

Anyone in Galveston with reports of winds yet? We in S. Houston (Missouri City) have pretty much a constant breeze of around 15 to 20 mph at this point... What's going on around the coast?

[CrazyC83]

250
URNT15 KNHC 122143
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20070912
213300 2721N 09328W 8428 01596 0130 +165 +000 205022 022 012 001 00
213330 2722N 09328W 8428 01598 0131 +165 +000 204021 021 012 000 00
213400 2724N 09328W 8427 01597 0132 +165 +000 205021 021 014 000 00
213430 2726N 09328W 8428 01596 0130 +165 +000 202021 021 014 000 00
213500 2728N 09328W 8427 01598 0129 +166 +000 199022 022 011 002 00
213530 2730N 09328W 8428 01594 0131 +165 +000 196020 021 011 002 00
213600 2731N 09328W 8428 01597 0131 +165 +000 198020 021 016 001 00
213630 2733N 09327W 8428 01596 0129 +168 +000 198020 021 014 001 00
213700 2735N 09327W 8428 01595 0130 +166 +000 200021 022 015 001 00
213730 2737N 09327W 8430 01595 0129 +166 +000 200022 023 014 001 00
213800 2739N 09327W 8428 01597 0129 +168 +000 198023 023 015 002 00
213830 2740N 09327W 8426 01598 0131 +165 +000 199023 023 016 001 00
213900 2742N 09327W 8428 01597 0130 +165 +000 200023 023 017 000 00
213930 2744N 09327W 8427 01598 0129 +165 +000 202024 024 018 000 00
214000 2746N 09327W 8427 01596 0127 +166 +000 199024 025 017 001 00
214030 2748N 09327W 8428 01595 0128 +165 +000 198024 024 018 000 00
214100 2750N 09327W 8427 01598 0130 +165 +000 198025 025 017 001 00
214130 2751N 09327W 8428 01595 0130 +165 +000 195024 025 020 000 00
214200 2753N 09327W 8428 01595 0130 +164 +000 193025 025 017 001 00
214230 2755N 09327W 8427 01597 0131 +160 +000 193025 025 019 000 00
$$


URNT15 KNHC 122153
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20070912
214300 2757N 09327W 8428 01595 0131 +160 +000 192025 025 018 001 00
214330 2759N 09327W 8428 01593 0129 +164 +000 190024 025 018 000 00
214400 2801N 09327W 8426 01596 0130 +160 +000 191025 025 037 000 03
214430 2802N 09327W 8428 01595 0132 +160 +000 191025 025 030 000 03
214500 2804N 09327W 8427 01598 0132 +160 +000 188025 026 021 000 00
214530 2806N 09327W 8427 01594 0132 +160 +000 185025 025 021 000 00
214600 2808N 09327W 8428 01594 0131 +160 +000 183024 025 020 001 00
214630 2810N 09327W 8427 01595 0130 +161 +000 181025 025 022 000 00
214700 2812N 09327W 8428 01593 0131 +160 +000 179025 025 021 000 00
214730 2814N 09327W 8428 01594 0132 +160 +000 178025 025 020 001 00
214800 2815N 09327W 8426 01597 0132 +158 +000 176025 025 022 000 00
214830 2817N 09327W 8428 01593 0133 +156 +000 176025 025 022 000 00
214900 2819N 09327W 8430 01590 0131 +158 +000 176025 025 023 000 00
214930 2821N 09327W 8427 01594 0130 +158 +000 176026 026 022 000 00
215000 2823N 09327W 8428 01591 0133 +155 +000 177026 026 023 000 00
215030 2825N 09327W 8427 01596 0132 +154 +000 177026 026 023 000 00
215100 2826N 09327W 8428 01591 0131 +157 +000 177027 027 023 000 00
215130 2828N 09327W 8428 01593 0130 +160 +000 175027 027 021 001 00
215200 2830N 09327W 8424 01595 0129 +159 +000 173026 026 025 000 00
215230 2832N 09327W 8429 01591 0129 +157 +000 172027 028 022 000 00
$$

[mattpetre]

Yeah, I'm not sure how folks are really tracking this with the radar. I've been having trouble all day as the center is not easily located on radar.

Seems like the center has been very easy to see most of the day on the HGX radar loop...

[destruction92]

Humberto will not be as major of a rainmaker as I thought it would be...since the cold front to its north will soon start making it move faster to the Northeast...furthermore, it does not have much substance on its western periphery so it looks like Louisiana will get the majority of the rain.

If it was stronger and better organized and began to stall, then it would be a different story.

So far Texas has lucked out from the significant tropical cyclones...anyone would take a homegrown garden variety weak tropical storm over a significant hurricane.

Then again, luck does not last for too long...and with already saturated grounds, it should not take much more rain to cause significant flooding if another tropical storm decides to make it to the western GOM.

[galvestontx13]

I bet you within the next hour on radar we will have a good eye, some clouds deff not stadium. and cat 1 by landfall. anyone else agree? These radar images and loops are just looking tooooooo good to be a ts. when is the next flight through?

[RL3AO]

Looks like the next flight takes off at 1130 pm CT.

[Stratosphere747]

Yeah, I'm not sure how folks are really tracking this with the radar. I've been having trouble all day as the center is not easily located on radar.

Seems like the center has been very easy to see most of the day on the HGX radar loop...

The overall circulation is one thing, the actual center is another...

[destruction92]

I bet you within the next hour on radar we will have a good eye, some clouds deff not stadium. and cat 1 by landfall. anyone else agree? These radar images and loops are just looking tooooooo good to be a ts. when is the next flight through?

Humberto is only 50 miles south of Galveston...at worst, maybe a 65 mph TS.

Generally speaking, tropical systems lose some intensity when VERY close to the gulf coast because of more shallow water...but this may only be true for much stronger systems...either way, with shallower water to contend with and upper level shear from the cold front, rapid intensification does not look likely.

I wonder what Wxman57 thinks about Humberto?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone in Galveston with reports of winds yet? We in S. Houston (Missouri City) have pretty much a constant breeze of around 15 to 20 mph at this point... What's going on around the coast?

Here is the latest report from Scholes field in Galveston...

NE 23 G 29 MPH

[galvestontx13]

Looks like the next flight takes off at 1130 pm CT.

thats not good. it will be to little to late by then. They should have one go out at say 8pm central.

[destruction92]

Looks like the next flight takes off at 1130 pm CT.

thats not good. it will be to little to late by then. They should have one go out at say 8pm central.

it will have made landfall by then i think...

[dwg71]

Recon did not show something near hurricane strength, there seems to be alot of dry air infiltrated in the system to allow strenghtening to hurricane status.

I think those in Chambers county, jefferson county and swla, need to be concerned with rain. Rain is Humbertos main threat.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 122203
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20070912
215300 2834N 09327W 8427 01593 0128 +160 +000 174026 027 022 000 00
215330 2836N 09327W 8427 01591 0128 +159 +000 171026 027 019 002 00
215400 2838N 09327W 8429 01593 0128 +158 +000 166026 027 018 002 00
215430 2839N 09327W 8426 01594 0127 +159 +000 171029 030 016 003 00
215500 2841N 09327W 8431 01590 0128 +157 +000 173027 028 016 002 00
215530 2843N 09327W 8430 01589 0127 +159 +000 168028 029 017 000 00
215600 2845N 09327W 8428 01590 0127 +160 +000 166029 029 016 000 00
215630 2847N 09327W 8426 01592 0127 +159 +000 164030 030 017 000 00
215700 2849N 09327W 8431 01587 0127 +159 +000 161029 029 019 000 00
215730 2851N 09327W 8427 01591 0127 +160 +000 159028 028 017 000 00
215800 2853N 09327W 8426 01590 0126 +158 +000 159027 027 019 000 00
215830 2854N 09327W 8427 01591 0128 +160 +000 158025 026 019 000 00
215900 2856N 09327W 8426 01593 0128 +158 +000 156024 024 019 000 00
215930 2858N 09327W 8427 01593 0127 +158 +000 158024 024 019 000 00
220000 2900N 09327W 8430 01591 0129 +158 +000 158023 023 017 000 00
220030 2902N 09327W 8428 01591 0131 +155 +000 158023 023 018 000 00
220100 2904N 09327W 8424 01595 0128 +160 +000 158024 024 018 000 00
220130 2905N 09327W 8427 01592 0129 +160 +000 156025 025 018 000 00
220200 2907N 09327W 8427 01593 0130 +160 +000 154025 025 017 000 00
220230 2909N 09327W 8429 01591 0130 +160 +000 151024 025 018 000 00
$$

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

if u click on the stewart beach cam u can see the water starting to come up onto the beach

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[fasterdisaster]

Am I the only one who can CLEARLY see an eye?

[Derek Ortt]

there is no dry air entraining dwg

it is in the organizing process. while I do not expect hurricane (the next forecast I put out will likely indicate 50-60KT at landfall), cane is not an unreasonable posibility of this doddles

[RL3AO]

Am I the only one who can CLEARLY see an eye?

More like a break in the clouds and not an eye.