Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 122223
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 35 20070912
221300 2927N 09357W 8427 01590 0125 +158 +000 137024 025 027 000 00
221330 2927N 09359W 8428 01583 0123 +157 +000 134025 025 026 000 00
221400 2927N 09401W 8427 01586 0123 +157 +000 133026 026 027 000 00
221430 2928N 09403W 8428 01586 0122 +159 +000 130026 027 027 000 00
221500 2928N 09405W 8427 01588 0121 +160 +000 129027 028 025 002 00
221530 2929N 09407W 8431 01588 0124 +160 +000 129028 028 024 003 03
221600 2928N 09409W 8430 01585 0121 +160 +000 128026 026 026 000 03
221630 2926N 09410W 8426 01587 0121 +158 +000 130025 025 028 000 00
221700 2925N 09411W 8427 01585 0121 +155 +000 130024 024 029 000 00
221730 2924N 09412W 8428 01582 0118 +158 +000 129024 025 026 001 00
221800 2923N 09414W 8427 01584 0119 +160 +000 126025 025 027 004 00
221830 2922N 09415W 8428 01583 0117 +160 +000 122025 025 030 004 00
221900 2921N 09416W 8427 01584 0118 +156 +000 118024 024 031 007 00
221930 2919N 09418W 8429 01581 0121 +150 +000 114025 025 033 007 00
222000 2918N 09419W 8431 01578 0120 +147 +000 114025 027 035 009 00
222030 2917N 09420W 8425 01581 0128 +135 +000 107028 029 039 016 00
222100 2916N 09422W 8424 01580 0132 +127 +000 101024 025 050 028 00
222130 2914N 09423W 8436 01563 0123 +131 +000 109026 028 061 057 00
222200 2913N 09425W 8446 01562 0130 +127 +000 125025 026 062 042 00
222230 2912N 09426W 8429 01575 0122 +140 +000 135028 029 041 011 00
$$

[mattpetre]

Seems to be moving somewhat east from the radar..is it my eyes or is it slowly and i mean slowly moving east..from the radar just posted it seems to be moving ene

I see the ENE too on radar but it may just be an illusion. Humberto is already a little east of Galvestons longitude judging by the radar IMO.

Steering winds would still say a little NNW track at some point, but those are starting to get old, wait for the new product to come out I guess...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Seems to be moving somewhat east from the radar..is it my eyes or is it slowly and i mean slowly moving east..from the radar just posted it seems to be moving ene

I see the ENE too on radar but it may just be an illusion. Humberto is already a little east of Galvestons longitude judging by the radar IMO.

It is actually due south of Galveston right now (according to the latest discussion from on air met Dr. Neil Frank).

[fasterdisaster]

Honestly with such odd currents everyone from Lake Jackson to Port Arthur should prepare as if this will be right over their house.

[Derek Ortt]

something is wrong with the SFMR... the 60KT surface winds do not match

probably best to discard those high values unless the closer in readings justify them

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the ENE motion is an illusion...just like the earlier NW motion probably was too.

[carversteve]

Seems to be moving somewhat east from the radar..is it my eyes or is it slowly and i mean slowly moving east..from the radar just posted it seems to be moving ene

I see the ENE too on radar but it may just be an illusion. Humberto is already a little east of Galvestons longitude judging by the radar IMO.

Steering winds would still say a little NNW track at some point, but those are starting to get old, wait for the new product to come out I guess...

but what i just looked at it sure looks like it has an easterly component to it..iknow it woblbles some..but really looks to be drifting ene

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The slower this moves the more east will be its landfall. We will see...

[fasterdisaster]

something is wrong with the SFMR... the 60KT surface winds do not match

probably best to discard those high values unless the closer in readings justify them

I don't think they should be thrown out altogether, maybe adjusted a little downward, but not thrown out. Lest we forget that it has been seen in quickly intensifying storms that the surface winds haven't been seen in the flight level yet? It could be happening here.

[skysummit]

Mid level steering does show a west to east push just north of Humberto, over Central Louisiana...

[Extremeweatherguy]

It does look like an "eye" is trying to clear out on radar now. We will have to watch this very closely.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

[fasterdisaster]

this is NOT moving ENE. Even NE is stretching it. I'd say between NE and NNE.

[srainhoutx]

Form HGX WFO...


FXUS64 KHGX 122152
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
452 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO BEARING DOWN ON THE BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
CHAMBERS COUNTIES AS OF 430 PM. CURRENT RADAR CIRCULATION PLACES
IT ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA BEACH MOVING NORTH. SEE LATEST
NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE PARTICULARS. WINDS OF 20-45 KNOTS SEEM LIKELY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND WITH THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SEE A RUNUP IN TIDE LEVELS AROUND GALVESTON
BAY AND COASTAL AREAS EAST OF SAN LUIS PASS. RAINFALL OF LESS THAN
2 INCHES SEEMS REASONABLE FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF A PALACIOS TO
SEALY TO HUNTSVILLE LINE WITH AMOUNT RAMPING UP QUICKLY CLOSER TO
THE TRACK WHERE AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT
OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A QUICK
DROP OFF IN POPS AND QPF. 12Z GUIDANCE PAINTS A DRIER PATTERN BY
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO HAVE PARED BACK POPS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

Jamaica Beach is located on the West end of Galveston Island, just East of San Luis Pass

[opera ghost]

Wobbles folks. Wobbles. Don't use radar to try to guess a heading- the time frame is really too short and will over exaggerate any little deviation. It's great for seeing short time- especially since the system is so close to land- the wobbles matter, but don't expect the system to travel in a straight line in the direction of any movement you catch in a frame or three of radar =)

[RL3AO]

The center the last 3 hours according to nexrad.

[fasterdisaster]

GALVESTON RESIDENTS: Please do not venture outside in the next hour or so! A band of deep and strong thunderstorms is minutes away from passing right over you! Don't panic but don't be outside during these deep red on radar storms.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 122233
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 36 20070912
222300 2911N 09427W 8425 01578 0109 +155 +000 138031 032 029 003 00
222330 2910N 09428W 8431 01569 0107 +155 +000 140031 032 026 002 00
222400 2909N 09430W 8427 01572 0105 +153 +000 137032 032 029 002 00
222430 2908N 09431W 8428 01567 0110 +145 +000 131033 035 031 006 00
222500 2906N 09432W 8438 01557 0109 +144 +000 125036 036 035 003 00
222530 2905N 09433W 8433 01563 0098 +157 +000 129031 033 045 000 00
222600 2904N 09435W 8426 01567 0095 +160 +000 128029 030 041 000 00
222630 2903N 09436W 8425 01565 0097 +152 +000 126031 034 035 011 00
222700 2902N 09437W 8443 01544 0096 +151 +000 130031 032 036 011 00
222730 2901N 09439W 8426 01560 0086 +162 +000 124031 032 033 000 00
222800 2859N 09440W 8428 01556 0085 +161 +000 121034 035 032 002 03
222830 2858N 09441W 8414 01567 0081 +161 +000 123035 036 035 002 00
222900 2857N 09442W 8419 01559 0079 +158 +000 118034 035 037 003 00
222930 2855N 09443W 8415 01561 0080 +149 +000 119037 039 042 012 03
223000 2854N 09444W 8424 01544 0081 +140 +000 122038 042 047 015 00
223030 2853N 09445W 8421 01541 0072 +141 +000 130032 035 053 021 00
223100 2851N 09446W 8419 01538 0069 +140 +000 129034 040 045 024 03
223130 2850N 09447W 8421 01533 0055 +153 +000 124029 031 044 009 03
223200 2849N 09448W 8415 01535 0038 +172 +000 113026 027 042 007 00
223230 2848N 09449W 8418 01523 0032 +168 +000 104026 027 038 005 03
$$

Back to the center. 42 kt FL, 53 kt SFMR (realistic?).

[mattpetre]

Mid level steering does show a west to east push just north of Humberto, over Central Louisiana...

And an E. to W. over Central Texas... just hard to figure out...

[DESTRUCTION5]

East of Galv bay would be a good bet IMO..Maybe even closer to the border..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[feederband]

Land hugger maybe?