Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Brent]

Was T.S.HUMBERTO (GOM) a surprize to anyone else besides me, the chance of it getting close to a weak Cat. 1 hurricane before landfall?

Surprise to me... I was convinced TD 8 would be Humberto. Whoops.

[skysummit]

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122224Z - 130000Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATIONS ATTENDANT
TO APPROACHING T.S. HUMBERTO WILL BE MONITORED...AND TORNADO WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE BY 23Z AS NRN MOST TROPICAL
RAIN BAND ATTENDANT WITH T.S. HUMBERTO REACHES THE TX COAST. THIS
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE CENTER OF
HUMBERTO APPROACHES THE UPPER TX COAST.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE CENTER OF T.S. HUMBERTO APPROXIMATELY
45 S GLS...WITH THE OUTERMOST ATTENDANT RAINBAND ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE TX COAST...15 WSW
GLS TO OFFSHORE AT 35 ESE GLS. THE OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF THIS BAND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TX COAST BY 23Z. THUS FAR...THERE
HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW LOW LEVEL ROTATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DISCRETE
OFFSHORE CELLS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALREADY
BECOME FAVORABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST PER
HGX WSR-88D VAD...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 20 KT AND 0-3 KM
SRH VALUES AOA 150 M2/S2.

..PETERS.. 09/12/2007

[opera ghost]

GALVESTON RESIDENTS: Please do not venture outside in the next hour or so! A band of deep and strong thunderstorms is minutes away from passing right over you! Don't panic but don't be outside during these deep red on radar storms.

No panic...but I'm not staying here in the hospital at the end of the shift when I have to be back tomorrow. I'll venture out...I'm a duck. Or in the words of teenagers these days, ima duck -- if I see debris flying at me, ima duck.

I have no idea how we managed to not deflect this one away- I thought for sure you must be out of the city so the storm repellent power had faded. =D

When is this predicted to start landing- or is that still a big question mark? My husband doesn't like tropical weather and keeps bugging the devil out of me like a little kid. "Is it here yet? Is it here yet?" Oy vey.

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like winds will be 60 at 8.

[Brent]

Looks like winds will be 60 at 8.

Pretty amazing when you consider this thing was not even a TD 12 hours ago.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like winds will be 60 at 8.

Pretty amazing when you consider this thing was not even a TD 12 hours ago.

60 kt or 60 mph?

If 60 kt, a Hurricane Warning would probably be needed.

[HenkL]

Four VDM positions for this flight:

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 122253
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 38 20070912
224300 2822N 09506W 8419 01566 0078 +170 +000 293031 032 032 003 00
224330 2821N 09507W 8418 01567 0082 +168 +000 298031 032 032 004 00
224400 2820N 09509W 8419 01569 0084 +169 +000 295033 034 032 004 00
224430 2819N 09510W 8418 01574 0084 +172 +000 296033 033 031 004 00
224500 2818N 09511W 8419 01575 0083 +179 +000 299031 032 028 004 00
224530 2817N 09512W 8415 01580 0087 +175 +000 304029 030 028 002 00
224600 2816N 09514W 8423 01574 0091 +173 +000 305027 027 026 003 00
224630 2815N 09515W 8411 01590 0093 +172 +000 297025 026 028 002 00
224700 2814N 09516W 8420 01581 0095 +172 +000 293024 024 027 002 00
224730 2814N 09516W 8420 01581 0098 +169 +000 295023 023 025 002 00
224800 2812N 09519W 8420 01581 0100 +165 +000 297022 022 025 002 00
224830 2811N 09520W 8419 01583 0102 +166 +000 297021 022 025 001 00
224900 2810N 09521W 8420 01583 0103 +166 +000 303021 021 024 002 03
224930 2809N 09523W 8416 01590 0103 +169 +000 314021 022 999 999 03
225000 2811N 09523W 8421 01585 0103 +169 +000 304018 019 999 999 03
225030 2812N 09522W 8414 01588 0100 +167 +000 289020 020 022 002 00
225100 2813N 09521W 8419 01583 0100 +167 +000 293018 019 023 003 00
225130 2814N 09519W 8419 01583 0097 +169 +000 298019 020 027 002 00
225200 2815N 09518W 8420 01579 0093 +173 +000 305023 025 025 003 00
225230 2816N 09517W 8423 01574 0092 +174 +000 310025 025 026 002 00
$$

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 122247
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 12/22:34:40Z
B. 28 deg 41 min N
094 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1413 m
D. 53 kt
E. 026 deg 13 nm
F. 122 deg 041 kt
G. 027 deg 014 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 15 C/ 1532 m
J. 20 C/ 1537 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 23
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 20:47:50 Z
GOOD RADAR BANDING

Where did the 53 kt come from?

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like winds will be 60 at 8.

Pretty amazing when you consider this thing was not even a TD 12 hours ago.

60 kt or 60 mph?

If 60 kt, a Hurricane Warning would probably be needed.

Thankfully just mph.

[ROCK]

got to give it some time for the winds to catch up with the pressure....I dont know if 2 hours is enough time.

[Brent]

Looks like winds will be 60 at 8.

Pretty amazing when you consider this thing was not even a TD 12 hours ago.

60 kt or 60 mph?

If 60 kt, a Hurricane Warning would probably be needed.

I haven't seen anything to support 60 kt. The new VDM had 53 kt on Line D.

[jaxfladude]

Was T.S.HUMBERTO (GOM) a surprise to anyone else besides me, the chance of it getting close to a weak Cat. 1 hurricane before landfall?

Surprise to me... I was convinced TD 8 would be Humberto. Whoops.

Last night I was thinking at most a weak TS and more rain for TX/LA and now it "may" become a weak CAT. 1 hurricane. not even 12 before the time of this reply alot of us though "no way" or "a small chance"....The tropics behave the way they want to and not the way we want them to...
Is this a sign of a mini Rapid Intensification Phase?

[Steve]

Shower visible to the eye just due SE of me. Looking for a couple of bands in South Central LA tonight based off of radar. Nothing like points west will see, but hey, it's something.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Steve

[mattpetre]

Was T.S.HUMBERTO (GOM) a surprize to anyone else besides me, the chance of it getting close to a weak Cat. 1 hurricane before landfall?

I called for it a few days back, but the respectability of my posts on this board is very low, so yes, surprising mostly.

[ROCK]

Shower visible to the eye just due SE of me. Looking for a couple of bands in South Central LA tonight based off of radar. Nothing like points west will see, but hey, it's something.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Steve

give it a day Steve, it will be right over you if those loopy models verify.......

[HenkL]

I guess this one:

223030 2853N 09445W 8421 01541 0072 +141 +000 130032 035 053 021 00

[ROCK]

Was T.S.HUMBERTO (GOM) a surprize to anyone else besides me, the chance of it getting close to a weak Cat. 1 hurricane before landfall?

I called for it a few days back, but the respectability of my posts on this board is very low, so yes, surprising mostly.

that takes time.....stay awhile and it will happen...

[Furious George]

If this thing moved straight north, it looks like those east of I-45 would definately be getting the brunt of the storm. One caveat - these storms always seem to disorganize strangely over land, sometimes expanding the rain field.

[Sambucol]

I'm on the upper TX coast just east of Houston. I'm wondering how possible/probable this storm will become a hurricane, albeit minimal. Anyone have an idea? Thanks.