TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[OURAGAN]

If you take a look at the latest loop, td 8 is not heading to 290, but to 275 W, may be 265 W.
What do you think about that?

[mattpetre]

I still will stick to my guns that the troughs are not appearing as strongly as initially expected (evidence) and TD8 is moving a bit more west than expected (evidence) and this storm (albeit not the monster I once thought) will entually be an E. GOM threat... flame away if need be. But I do think there is ample evidence provided here, if you want diagrams, I'd be happy to provide them and waste bandwidth...

[mattpetre]

The shear won't be a problem until it hits about 60N, 15/20W. Then after it gets to the Bahamas the shear will lessen and conditions will become favorable once again.

Wow, that's going to be in a strange place... 60N 15/20W??

[msbee]

could we please STOP SAYING THAT IF IT MISSES THE MAINLAND THAT IT IS A FISH


Have we already forgotten that there are heavily populated islands in its way. And this could be a significant strike on the USA in 5 days at the VI and PR. There is also the question of Canada. maybe Juan was a fish as well

rant off and I'll try not to do it again, but those posts are frustrating to me

Thank you Derek

[mattpetre]

The shear won't be a problem until it hits about 60N, 15/20W. Then after it gets to the Bahamas the shear will lessen and conditions will become favorable once again.

Wow, that's going to be in a strange place... 60N 15/20W??

I meant 60W, 15/20N. My bad...

I really figured as much just wanted to make sure you caught it... hope I didn't come off being a jerk... I've made much worse mistakes on here.

[bvigal]

This is REALLY interesting. Just issued, marine forecast charts for 24, 48hrs. Take a look at the pressure! Here's 24hrs.

now look at it 48hrs per W.Barnes:

[destruction92]

If I remember correctly, plenty of the global models (including the famous GFS) have a bad habit of "overdoing" weaknesses in the ridge.

[Brent]

If I remember correctly, plenty of the global models (including the famous GFS) have a bad habit of "overdoing" weaknesses in the ridge.

Yep... and most have had a rightward bias with the big storms this year(Dean and Felix)

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure why Don doesn't believe that this won't become a hurricane. All guidance and the syoptic suggest that it will. Any SAL will be intercepted by the wave behind our TD and shear should be quite low at least through 72 hours.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm not sure why Don doesn't believe that this won't become a hurricane. All guidance and the syoptic suggest that it will. Any SAL will be intercepted by the wave behind our TD and shear should be quite low at least through 72 hours.

I think the bigger arguement here Derek is where does Accuwx find reasoning to have this in the bahamas by Sat and the NHC still has it East of the islands monday! Whats the deal there?

[ConvergenceZone]

Keeping an eye on the island. Thanx for the input Derek. Well, hitting the islands is bad enough, but at least it looks like we miay have some good news with the trough coming down so that it can avoid a second landfall on the east coast. It's really difficult for systems that develop this far out to hit the mainland of the USA due to all of the troughs coming off the east coast, and this probably will follow that normal trend as well...

[bvigal]

Derek, can you figure why TAFB thinks this will be weaker in 48hrs than in 24hrs? (see charts, above)

[Derek Ortt]

I cannot answer for accuwx

[alan1961]

tropical forecast points are out a little.

[OURAGAN]

TD 8 is moving SW since three Hours, the LLC may be at 13N now.

[wxmann_91]

The forecast for this storm is actually quite problematic... synoptic pattern says this will move west for the next few days with a northward turn in around 4 days. Based on that, I believe that all the Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispaniola are under the gun. After that, it's really anyone's guess. First this system has to actually survive, which it may not given the hostile upper air environment progged in the ENTIRE wrn ATL. East Coast might get a close brush or even a hit with this, though I favor dissipation or recurve.

Of course, how strong TD8 develops right now is key b/c if it can start controlling its own environment, the shear will be minimized somewhat.

[Derek Ortt]

latest microwave pass does in fact show the center farther to the east. my appologises to Mr. Dan Brown

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

Also shows a highly sheared system, based upon the SSM/I I may reconsider my sat estimates of this already having reached TS intensity

[Derek Ortt]

wxmann

only the GFS has those hostile conditions

[OURAGAN]

I am living in Guadeloupe in the lesser antilles and i agree with you wxmann_91.

[tropicsPR]

Question for Mr. Ortt:

We in Puerto Rico are very concerned with the latest track forecast of the GFDL model which is moving TD #8 westward. Do you think this is a reliable model in TD #8 future track?

Thank You