TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[wzrgirl1]

should this dip to the south have a significant impact on it's eventual forecast path....i think not because it's the synoptics in a few days that will direct it's overall path.....

[tolakram]

Look at the AVN

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

The blob is falling away SW. If you believe the forecast points, which I think are reasonably accurate, it might be a real struggle to organize again. It will be interesting to watch, that's for sure.

[tolakram]

should this dip to the south have a significant impact on it's eventual forecast path....i think not because it's the synoptics in a few days that will direct it's overall path.....

It's not dipping to the south. The mid level circulation has been blown off the lower level circulation due to shear. The blob appears to be dropping SW but the storm is still NE of it.

[sunnyday]

As soon as a depression forms a thousand or more miles from the U. S., people start asking where the storm will hit, and suggestions and predictions are made. In reality, approximately how many days from a landfall will a prediction most likely be accurate?
Thank you for the information.

[wzrgirl1]

4 days

[robbielyn]

As soon as a depression forms a thousand or more miles from the U. S., people start asking where the storm will hit, and suggestions and predictions are made. In reality, approximately how many days from a landfall will a prediction most likely be accurate?
Thank you for the information.

three days i would think. although charlie only gave us a few hours lol

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT an Official Forecast***

Whether or not it goes through the caribbean has MAJOR
implications. Going north of the caribbean would
mean a big threat to the islands and the east
coast but less of a threat to the gulf coast.

Whereas going through the caribbean would
be a very serious threat for caribbean islands
as well as...DARE I say...the GOM? Yes. Where
else would it go this time of year other than
central america if indeed it Carribeanizes
it's track? We have troughs,
sure there may be a strong ridge
but there are also troughs...

But time will tell...
Unless Shear kills this thing it will be a MONSTER.
Mark my words. Heat Content, etc.

[badashley]

As soon as a depression forms a thousand or more miles from the U. S., people start asking where the storm will hit, and suggestions and predictions are made. In reality, approximately how many days from a landfall will a prediction most likely be accurate?
Thank you for the information.

I was going to say three days. The best example I have is Katrina. If memory serves correct she was predicted to slam into the Florida panhandle until about 1:00 p.m. on the Friday before, then all of the models shifted to a direct hit on Louisiana.

I have a hard time placing any real confidence on anything more than three to four days out.

[Ivanhater]

Continues to shift south...NHC will have to adjust track...looking like it will have a hard time missing the islands...

[wzrgirl1]

If the NHC doesn't go further then 5 days out, then honestly I wouldn't trust any model beyond that time...and even the 5 day forecast has been suspect until recently I think

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

more reasons to believe we
will be tracking a major caribbean hurricane in a few
days...and also, the islands need
to be bracing themselves, bigtime.

Also, we can clearly see that earlier
the models were underestimating
the power of the ridge.

[Blown Away]

Looks like TD8 is good 60 miles S of it's forecasted position or it is getting heavy shear. The 5pm latitude was at 13.5N, I bet the 11pm is near 13N.

[Weatherfreak000]

Derek.

Should these fluctuations in intensity and decoupling issues keep TD8 generally slightly South of the NHC Track? Or would keeping the system shallow allow TD8 to be more influenced by a weakness and turn further North?


At this point, I suspect a significant mistreatment of the Ridge by the models. The GFDL track looks very good to me right now and the recent GFS shows it too. It just seems typically this scenario always happens, and the ridge wins.

Just wondering about your input.

[bvigal]

Every single NHC Forecast Advisory carries this information:
"EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY"
So, 4 days 225nm error, 5 days 300nm error. Beyond 5 days, it's even more. 300nautical miles is 343 statute miles, what folks on land are used to measuring on road maps, etc.

You can see this graphically, by looking at the "cone" on the advisory maps, i.e. click here for TD8's

[alan1961]

Continues to shift south...NHC will have to adjust track...looking like it will have a hard time missing the islands...

NOGAPS track so far with that map

[Derek Ortt]

it should mvoe south of the NHC track regardless

[Blown Away]

Accuweather has Ingrid as a Cat 2 almost 300 miles farther W than the NHC in 5 days. I'll always go w/ the NHC but I'm not so sure about TD8 basically crawling WNW for 3 days.

[Brent]

0z models still a TD. Ships peaks it at 56 kt as opposed to 71 kt on the 18z.

[hurricanetrack]

That shear down the road is going to be interesting to see. I suppose if it makes it through the shear zone, it could come out the other side looking real good. Heck, pre-Gabrielle survived a serious butt-whoppin' and tried its darndest to become something. This has been an odd season- the only 2 canes: cat-5s. Everthing else- struggle city.

[alan1961]

Accuweather has Ingrid as a Cat 2 almost 300 miles farther W than the NHC in 5 days. I'll always go w/ the NHC but I'm not so sure about TD8 basically crawling WNW for 3 days.

just looked at the tropical update from Bastardi on Accuweather and he believes a disturbance well north of the islands currently will be in the florida straits by early next week but he didn't say whether it be a developing system or not.