Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[greg_kfdm_tv]

We have a weather station 30 miles south of Sea Rim State Park which provides us live data.

The station recorded a peak gust of 59 mph at 6:07 P.M. during a heavy squall. Current winds are easterly at sustained speeds of 30-40 mph.

Bear in mind this station is on an oil platform about 80 feet off the water.

[Downdraft]

I have the center at 171 degrees/29 nautical miles from Galveston.

Still moving to the north-northeast about 6 mph. Drier air is eroding the west side quite a bit at this time.

That's what I'm seeing also. Makes sense considering the strongest winds are 50kts and the position they are in.

[tolakram]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... ightning=0

40 frames, or about 4 hours. I'm going to have to jump on the NE bandwagon. I can't find N/NE motion no matter how many times I guess the initial position.

edit: not east!

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like much for Houston as far as I can see, either. I notice the eastward shift and dry air intrusion. Humberto and I will be passing each other as I drive to work tomorrow morning at 5:30 on I-45. Probably just some light rain from I-45 west. Would have been interesting to see at least 20-30 mph wind blowing through the trees.

[opera ghost]

I'm not really willing to disagree with the people who forecast storms for a living. If it's going east, they'll tell us it's going east. If they insist it's going NNE- I trust them.

[jasons2k]

If anything forward speed is now increasing and I expect this to make LF well east of the official LF forecast point, somewhere between Sea Rim St. Park and Sabine Pass. The Houston Metro area really lucked-out with this one. Bad news for our friends over in Port Arthur, etc.

Well I guess we all see things differently but the "increase" in forward I
don't see that yet but I'm not saying it's not happening. I just don't see it.
Does anyone else see an increase in forward speed?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

One way to tell what the center is doing is to also look at the other radar products, such as velocity, etc. If you look at base velocity & storm tops on GR3, it's very clear in the last hour or so it's pulling more to the NE.

[lrak]

If anything forward speed is now increasing and I expect this to make LF well east of the official LF forecast point, somewhere between Sea Rim St. Park and Sabine Pass. The Houston Metro area really lucked-out with this one. Bad news for our friends over in Port Arthur, etc.

Well I guess we all see things differently but the "increase" in forward I
don't see that yet but I'm not saying it's not happening. I just don't see it.
Does anyone else see an increase in forward speed?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

No but I do se a more easterly movement than before.

[JonathanBelles]

whats the possibility this misses TX?

[lrak]

whats the possibility this misses TX?

Texas?


I'm ready to surf tomorrow

[Downdraft]

Doppler doesn't lie and fixing the center using Gibson Ridge software is hardly rocket science. It's moving N/NE and I see no increase in forward speed.

[Kennethb]

After looking at the satellite, it appears that the outflow to the west is being limited by northeast winds loft that is probably accounting for the more NNE - NE jogs. Too, there is a weak surface trough across central Louisiana, which may account for this as well.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm not really willing to disagree with the people who forecast storms for a living. If it's going east, they'll tell us it's going east. If they insist it's going NNE- I trust them.

That's fine and dandy, but, I tend to have more faith in what I see with my own naked eye. I don't need anyone to tell me what I do or don't see. One thing I do see...it's going to strike SW LA (possibly Port Arthur, TX), but, it could skip all the way to Intracoastal City, LA. There is a frontal boundary just to the North. Tropical systems classicly pick up on them and move Eastward along the fronts. That's just the way it is. I'm increasingly concerned for SE LA as time passes and the opportunities for torrential rains over the next two to three days.....

[RL3AO]

If this doesn't prove NE I don't know what will.

[Ed Mahmoud]

LCH radar suggests NE movement.

I'd guess, if in Texas, and it isn't raining already, it won't rain much.

Biggest winds Port Arthur to Cameron, in my unprofessional opinion.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

After looking at the satellite, it appears that the outflow to the west is being limited by northeast winds loft that is probably accounting for the more NNE - NE jogs. Too, there is a weak surface trough across central Louisiana, which may account for this as well.

Trough moving into the midwestern United states. A few hours ago the 500-850 millibar winds as little as a few degrees north had almost eastly flow. Would not suprize me if this turns east or east-northeastward.

[tolakram]

Buoy near Galveston:

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/42035.html

If the storm continues to move NE then the pressure should continue to drop, in my estimation.

[wiggles]

I hope is does not continue to drift to the east. With TS Allison we got about 11 inches of rain in a short period of time in Slidell which is Northeast of New Orleans

[NONAME]

Is that an eye in radar?

[HouTXmetro]

Well the Western side is attempting to build back in on the latest radar loop. Not sure what implications this will have on Houston weather.

[O Town]

I am already bored with this storm....

We are just getting to the climax!