Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[btangy]

The 00Z sounding from Corpus Christi does show some dry air above 600mb, but it is not that dry (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/crp.gif). Rather, there is ~15knots of SWly shear impinging on the storm. This is evident by the classic convective asymmetry with the strongest convection downshear. The erosion you are seeing is more of a dynamical forcing rather than dry air eating the convection away, in my opinion.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

My current intensity guess: 50 kt, 997mb. I think it has peaked and is levelling off.

[KatDaddy]

1.61" and a gust to 22mph

[Sean in New Orleans]

Bob Breck is on right now....he has it coming in around LA/TX border and then traversing S. Louisiana over the Northshore area of New Orleans. His main concern is it is moving very slow and he has a small concern it could get stuck over S. Louisiana until the front pushes it out on the weekend. But, he doesn't sound concerned about it at all...in fact, he didn't even open the weather with Humberto. He opened with the depression out in the Atlantic that is basically "stationery."

[Thunder44]

The center looks like it's clearing out on radar again. Thunderstorm have also increased around the center:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

[RDTF]

Kudos to Joe Bastardi- nailed the formation of gabrielle
as well as humberto. His skills deserve respect.

IMO he is willing to go out on a limb at the risk of being wrong, and I admire that

[WindRunner]

Drawing a 10dbZ isosurface on the Houston radar shows a pretty well defined eye . . . to be honest, even the 5dbZ level shows it pretty well.



Combine that with the fact that the lightning is on the increase in the NW quad, I'd say it's hardly done strengthening at this point.
And since I took this screenshot, several dozen more strikes have been recorded further to the west of those below.

[Bailey1777]

It looks to be taking a good N to NNW bend.

[Thunder44]

11pm Advisory, has winds at 55kts.

[fasterdisaster]

11pm Advisory, has winds at 55kts.

WHOA!

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! what a shock! They have upped the winds to 65mph at 11pm.

[Evil Jeremy]

65 MPH!

[Brent]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WINDS COULD BE
APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A SMALL AREA CLOSE TO WHERE THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

[WindRunner]

11pm Advisory, has winds at 55kts.

That's appropriate, considering what recon found.

Also, as another item of note, TS-force winds were observed at the Galveston pier at 0200z.

[fasterdisaster]

WOW they actually mentioned the possibility of it becoming a hurricane this advisory. What time does it look to be making landfall? I notice it's wobbled north, but what's that mean really?

[Stormcenter]

Another pretty good burst of convection over the center.
So much for the "dry air".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WINDS COULD BE
APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A SMALL AREA CLOSE TO WHERE THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

They don't really say it could become an actual hurricane.

[Category 5]

I think they need to issue a Hurricane Watch.

[fasterdisaster]

The effects on Humberto did not appear to me to be dry air, but some temporary shear which has let up most likely.