Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well no surprise here given how warm the GOM waters are.
The Front may provide baroclinic enhancement, and this
surely may reach 75 mph prior to landfall.

[mattpetre]

I still believe a landfall over Galveston or just west of there is a possibility at this point (maybe in the 20% range...)

[HouTXmetro]

Is it moving back North/NNW???

[Brent]

BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
48 HOURS.

[Stratosphere747]

I still believe a landfall over Galveston or just west of there is a possibility at this point (maybe in the 20% range...)

That would imply Jamaica Beach or San Luis Pass. Don't see that happening.

[swimaster20]

The new 10:00 discussion mentioned that the NHC moved the track more to the east b/c it's going further east than previously thought.

[Bailey1777]

If it continues it's current trend Galvestons extreme East end is likely. Maybe around the Bolivar Penisula.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Those northern jogs have ensured a landfall probably in Western Jefferson County. It's such a small system. Only a very small area will have major effects, but, a large area to the East of the system should have a great deal of rain tomorrow as the system continues to pull moisture up from the GOM while it is on land.

[CrazyC83]

I think they need to issue a Hurricane Watch.

I agree, they are cutting it way too close, although they seem confident it will not get to 65 kt. Throwing a Hurricane Watch (or Hurricane Warning) will strengthen the preparations needed, even though there isn't much time - they could still get out of floodplains or mobile homes and that will make them more likely to do such.

I'd have up a Hurricane Watch from San Luis Pass to Cameron. I would treat it as a Hurricane Watch if I were you and living in that area.

[fasterdisaster]

BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
48 HOURS.

Not needed in New Orleans.

[Jagno]

I think they need to issue a Hurricane Watch.

I agree, they are cutting it way too close, although they seem confident it will not get to 65 kt. Throwing a Hurricane Watch (or Hurricane Warning) will strengthen the preparations needed, even though there isn't much time - they could still get out of floodplains or mobile homes and that will make them more likely to do such.

I'd have up a Hurricane Watch from San Luis Pass to Cameron. I would treat it as a Hurricane Watch if I were you and living in that area.

don't worry, we've already opened up shelters here in SW Louisiana.....warning or no warning. Too many folks still living in damaged structures being rebuilt and FEMA trailers to take any chances.

[Stormcenter]

I still believe a landfall over Galveston or just west of there is a possibility at this point (maybe in the 20% range...)

Well if it's already SSE of Galveston and moving NNE then I'm sorry but that is impossible.

[Bailey1777]

It's still West of the Eastern side of Galveston.

[HouTXmetro]

Call me crazy but the radar loop shows a N/NNW jump.

[Buck]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 130244
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

HOUSTON WSR-88D VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS
INTENSIFIED. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 65 TO 70 KT WINDS AROUND THE
3000 FT LEVEL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE
CENTER. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 55 KT
WHICH WILL BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. RADAR REFLECTIVITY
DATA INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A
SMALL AREA NEAR HUMBERTO'S CENTER WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05 IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
48 HOURS. BASED MAINLY ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 29.0N 94.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.1N 93.9W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0000Z 31.6N 92.7W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1200Z 32.5N 91.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Bailey1777]

Not crazy you are exactly correct,

[Sean in New Orleans]

BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
48 HOURS.

Not needed in New Orleans.

We'll take the rain...we could use the rain. Flooding could be a concern, but, our pumps are in tip top condition right now and we are ready for maximum capacity of pumping in the city...the entire system has been flushed and it is in the best condition possible, so we could handle it right now.

[Stormcenter]

It's still West of the Eastern side of Galveston.

This from the NHC.

At 1000 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 29.0 north...longitude 94.6 west or about 25
miles... 40 km...south-southeast of Galveston Texas and about 45
miles... 70 km...south-southwest of High Island Texas.

[Bailey1777]

LOOK AT A MAP GALVESTON'S EAST END IS WEST OF THE CENTER!

[Steve]

>>Well if it's already SSE of Galveston and moving NNE then I'm sorry but that is impossible.

I thought High Island earlier today (prediction on cfhc) at maybe 50mph. Not sure where landfall is going to be, but it's clearly stronger than that (per advisory) and certainly stronger than I thought based on what was going down this morning. Obviously Humberto ratcheted his game up.

I think we were discussing pattern reversals on Monday, and things seemed like they were primed. Humberto waited until the end to get his act together, and I think we're all grateful for that. Seen probabably about .33" and lots of storms and bands on the horizon down here before dark. We're expecting probably a couple of inches over the next day or two and possibly more if the track truly bends more toward the ENE as per the 11pm advisory. Should be very interesting to see what happens with the trough based on whether or not those of us in southern LA, MS, AL and FL end up seeing flooding potential between tomorrow and Saturday.

Lesson for everyone is September in the tropics. Things change on short notice.



Steve